{"id":652536,"date":"2017-01-12T03:57:36","date_gmt":"2017-01-12T03:57:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/01\/12\/karim-sawabini-partner-and-portfolio-manager-moon-capital-new-york\/"},"modified":"2017-01-12T03:57:36","modified_gmt":"2017-01-12T03:57:36","slug":"karim-sawabini-partner-and-portfolio-manager-moon-capital-new-york","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/01\/12\/karim-sawabini-partner-and-portfolio-manager-moon-capital-new-york\/","title":{"rendered":"Karim Sawabini, partner and portfolio manager, Moon Capital, New York"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> <\/p>\n

Few US investors have the insight on Egypt that hedge fund manager Karim Sawabini does. Don\u2019t take our word for it: We\u2019ve included him in our inaugural CEO poll because his name has come up consistently in discussions with some of the smartest guys we know on the global investment circuit. Moon Capital has a 20-year track record and spun out of Oaktree Capital \u2014 the largest high-yield distressed debt player in the world, where founder John Moon ran the equities business until spinning out in March 2005. Headquartered in New York, Moon has offices in Singapore and Dubai and takes a long \/ short approach focusing largely on global emerging markets, where it is predominantly a public markets specialist with some private equity investments. Edited excerpts from our conversation:<\/p>\n

2017 will be the year of progress.<\/strong> Stop-and-go progress, but ultimately progress in the right direction.<\/p>\n

The biggest challenge of the year will be in the potential for disconnect between market expectations and the reality of how long it will take for Egypt to really get going. <\/strong>The market is now frontrunning news that is yet to come, and there will be some setbacks along the way. The risk in the near term comes down to execution. In the long term, it will be about improving education and skilled job opportunities, but that\u2019s a common issue across emerging markets.<\/p>\n

Consumer will underperform in 2017. It\u2019s already suffering in the downdraft now, but it will <\/strong>start to recover in the second half.<\/p>\n

Real estate has historically been a great place to invest after a large devaluation, but I suspect that this time might be the exception. <\/strong>Prices have already run up considerably. Egyptians have traditionally seen safety in real estate and turned to it when they couldn\u2019t get money out of the country, resulting in increased speculation through multiple home purchases. Look at the very significant increase in prices of North Coast homes over the past four to five years. So whereas you would normally say, \u201cBuy the heck out of real estate stocks\u201d post a devaluation, I don\u2019t expect real estate to lead the rally. The industry ran ahead of itself and affordability is substantially lower than in previous years.<\/p>\n

Industrials will outperform in 2017<\/strong>, posting gains because they\u2019re getting access to natural gas. You\u2019re going to see a large positive impact from improved utilization. I\u2019d look, too, at other sectors where natural gas is an input. Financials have done well, but the currency needs to strengthen a bit for them to really grow their loan books \u2014 I don\u2019t like the implications for capital adequacy with the EGP at 18-19. If I saw it at 15, I\u2019d like them a lot more.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s going to knock us off our horse? <\/strong>People are being patient now because they think the economy is going to get better, so there\u2019s risk that continued weakening of the currency and continued high inflation could lead to social discontent \/ unrest. I don\u2019t expect that, but you\u2019re asking about the dark horse. The other thing would be oil going to USD 80 or USD 90 per barrel along with a commodities spike. Egypt\u2019s a large importer of commodities, so that\u2019s another dark horse. Again, I don\u2019t expect it to happen. And the last thing would be if tourism doesn\u2019t come back \u2014 if we see more Turkey-style security episodes.<\/p>\n

Your view on where the EGP closes the year has to also factor in where you see the USD moving in 2017. <\/strong>I wouldn't be surprised to see 16.00, 16.50. It could strengthen more, but that would demand solid execution on the reform program and a weakening of the USD in the back half of the year. If the US Fed does go for three rate hikes in 2017, it will hit the US economy negatively, and the USD will start to weaken. At any rate, the USD is at a 14-year high, and a strong USD isn\u2019t good for US exports; it\u2019s not good for bringing jobs back to the US. I see the USD strengthening in the near term and then it will turn, which will be positive for emerging-market currencies.<\/p>\n

Other stock markets we like right now? <\/strong>It\u2019s about valuations for us. We still like Russia, but it\u2019s starting to get crowded by fast money. Turkey could get interesting in the next few months given skepticism is high \u2014 and rightfully so \u2014 and there\u2019s pessimism on the street, so valuations could get interesting if the currency weakens further. Argentina could be interesting given the recent pullback. We\u2019ve been out of Nigeria for three years now, and I would love to get involved. But I need a sense that something is going to happen on the currency front, that they\u2019ll really float it. I could get interested again.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not really a top-down thing for us, though. <\/strong>It is a focus when there are economic imbalances that would likely lead to large FX rate adjustments. Egypt is top-down, maybe, but we also look for great businesses. We\u2019re invested in 40 countries now, but we don\u2019t choose the countries as much as we look for great businesses <\/strong>at very attractive valuations, and that usually coincides with an economic shock and currency devaluation. We often take large stakes in businesses others haven\u2019t heard of before, but which are market leaders and which have outperformed GDP growth over the long term and\/or are at an inflection point underappreciated by the market.<\/p>\n

What are we asking the companies in which we invest? <\/strong>Same as always: What are your opportunities? What are you doing with your capital? What challenges do you see? What pricing power do you have? What does demand look like? What about supply? It all comes down to the basics, and we\u2019re typically much more interested in free cash than the income statement. We definitely want to understand the mindsets of management and of the owners<\/strong>, and we\u2019ll go talk with their competitors, with their regulators, and with government officials.<\/p>\n

What do we hold? Go look at the filings. <\/strong>We filed EK Holding last year \u2014 we have a large holding there. We\u2019ve been very large holders of Global Telecom Holding over the past year, year and a half and have been buying industrial names since the devaluation.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not what everyone on Wall Street gets wrong about Egypt, it\u2019s what they get wrong about emerging markets. <\/strong>EM are the most interesting when there\u2019s uncertainty \u2014 that\u2019s when the risk-reward tradeoff gets interesting. When valuations collapse and the balance changes. You want to assemble a portfolio of assets that are dispersed geographically and that offer great risk tradeoffs \u2014 think tradeoffs of 4:1 or 6:1. Do that consistently, and you\u2019ll generate attractive risk-adjusted returns.<\/p>\n

What the \u201cmasses\u201d get wrong about violent moves is that they want to buy when it looks like everything is getting better. <\/strong>They miss the massive initial move \u2014 that\u2019s why we plowed money into Egypt in February when it got crushed, took profits in the summer, and then bought again after 3 November. We have seen stocks that have already moved 50% in USD terms since the devaluation. Anyone coming in now has missed the initial move, even though stocks remain relatively cheap on a two-year view.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s not a lot of attention being paid to Egypt by Wall Street, but there\u2019s a growing awareness the currency looks cheap<\/strong> and that typically what you want to do in EMs is buy economies where there\u2019s going to be improvement after a collapse, where currency and valuations are cheap and where earnings growth is in the cards. This is why Egypt should be interesting.<\/p>\n

The big thing is going to be repatriation<\/strong>, where some investment firms are hamstrung by compliance and so I have less competition.<\/p>\n

I think the IPO outlook should be good<\/strong>. It comes down to valuation, and there\u2019s a lot of cash on the sidelines. It will come down to how good the companies are and what are the valuations.<\/p>\n

I see M&A activity picking up as the year goes on. <\/strong>It will be slow initially because strategics will want to see where the currency settles and they'll need comfort on repatriation. But three to four months from now, you should see an uptick in both M&A and FDI.<\/p>\n

If I were going to start a new business in Egypt today, I would look at import substitutes and exports<\/strong>, particularly exports in any industry that\u2019s really labor-intensive. Also, anything of which the country is a large importer, which involves natural gas and it\u2019s a product sold in USD.<\/p>\n

On the policy front, I get worried any time the government comes in and says it\u2019s going to dictate prices <\/strong>or the amount of natural gas a company can get. That changes the economics of the business and makes it really difficult to forecast the business. I don\u2019t like hearing things such as, \u201cI\u2019ll give you all the natural gas you need, but you need to bring your prices down.\u201d The ideal is to get market rates on everything.<\/p>\n

What the government needs to do is give the private sector what it needs to grow and prosper. <\/strong>The private sector is, by definition, the most efficient allocator of capital. They need to not crowd out the private sector. When disincentivized capital leaves a market, it takes time for it to come back.<\/p>\n

The biggest challenge for the hedge fund industry in 2017? <\/strong>Ten or fifteen years ago, people paid you for beta. You would lever up your portfolio and if the market did well, you did well. Investors have become more sophisticated these days. They can create their own beta. What they want is people who create alpha. If you can create alpha and mitigate risk, that\u2019s ideal. The challenge for asset managers generally is alpha. If I can buy a low-cost passive ETF that captures most of the market move in a rising market, why am I paying two and 20 [two percent management fee and 20% of profits earned, the standard hedge fund compensation structure]?<\/p>\n

Egypt is fun in some respects because the market is still overrun by retail investors. <\/strong>You want to be the only professional at a poker table so that it\u2019s not all professional fund managers slugging it out. You can make a lot of money when you know the companies and the facts, when you can talk to government.<\/p>\n

Why would I buy equities when interest rates on deposits in Egypt are at 18%? <\/strong>Here\u2019s my advantage: I don\u2019t look at where interest rates are now, I look at where they will be and thus, ultimately, where the discount rate will fall. The sell-side says the discount rate is 18%, but if the EGP stabilizes over the next 12 months, inflation will fall. And as it comes down and currency stabilizes and there are inflows and a strong reserves base at the CBE, they can cut rates. That\u2019s when debt investments start to become less attractive. So what happens when you look beyond the spot rate the sell-side people are using today and see rates coming down 400 bps over the next 12-18 months? Valuations go up significantly. Interest rates come down, the weighted average cost of capital comes down, and these highly levered industrial businesses suddenly have access to natural gas? When they\u2019re paying 12% on their variable-rate facilities and their EBITDA and earnings are dramatically improving because they have access to gas, their valuations change massively.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s all about the ability to look forward and see a different environment. <\/strong>I like industrials, and I\u2019ve liked them from the day of the devaluation. I knew that was the space I wanted to target.<\/p>\n

What I love about our business at Moon is that we focus largely on global emerging markets<\/strong>, and we\u2019re not afraid of illiquid markets, so you don\u2019t have all of the quant funds, the large hedge funds, the global funds. They tend not to play in emerging markets, and in illiquid EM even less, because they need to be able to liquidate and get out of a market fast. I can live with less liquidity and get paid for it.<\/strong><\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Few US investors have the insight on Egypt that hedge fund manager Karim Sawabini does. Don\u2019t take our word for it: We\u2019ve included him in our inaugural CEO poll because his name has come up consistently in discussions with some of the smartest guys we know on the global investment circuit. Moon Capital has a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":652537,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12058],"tags":[72,12057],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-652536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-2017-enterprise-ceo-poll","tag-enterpriseam","tag-the-2017-enterprise-ceo-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"bf1dc707-0216-412e-9f2d-44f147bb8a17","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2017\/1\/334.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[652517],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nKarim Sawabini, partner and portfolio manager, Moon Capital, New York - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/01\/12\/karim-sawabini-partner-and-portfolio-manager-moon-capital-new-york\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Karim Sawabini, partner and portfolio manager, Moon Capital, New York\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Few US investors have the insight on Egypt that hedge fund manager Karim Sawabini does. 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