{"id":651681,"date":"2017-02-19T04:06:19","date_gmt":"2017-02-19T04:06:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/02\/19\/international-optimism-about-egypts-economy-continues\/"},"modified":"2017-02-19T04:06:19","modified_gmt":"2017-02-19T04:06:19","slug":"international-optimism-about-egypts-economy-continues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/02\/19\/international-optimism-about-egypts-economy-continues\/","title":{"rendered":"International optimism about Egypt\u2019s economy continues"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> International optimism about Egypt\u2019s economy continues:<\/strong> Economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch<\/strong> see declining bond yields as one of the primary indicators that stabilizing foreign reserves and an appreciation of the EGP are drawing in foreign investors, according to its February insight report. The report takes the view the reform agenda has galvanized demand from bond investors, but these would hinge on Egypt receiving a positive review from the IMF when it arrives in March and the patience of the Egyptian street. \u201cWe expect a positive review based on end-of-December targets, which should unlock USD 1.25 bn in IMF financing.<\/strong> The key aspect of the review is whether fiscal targets would be reviewed in light of the weaker-than-anticipated USD\/EGP exchange rate\u2014EGP 12-14 per USD is implicitly assumed in the program. This could, in our view, ease reform slippage risk,\u201d said the report, according toAmwal Al Ghad<\/a>. The big downside risk highlighted by the report: \u201cSlippage\u201d in view of popular discontent with inflation ahead of the 2018 presidential elections.<\/p>\n

The bank continues to take a decidedly optimistic view regardless<\/strong>, as Jean-Michel Saliba, economist and strategist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch MENA, tells the Financial Times\u2019 Steve Johnson that rising international reserves and a narrowing of Egypt\u2019s trade deficit will help relieve pressure on the currency further. A 30% year-on-year decline in imports in November could be the first sign of a rebalance, he added. Renaissance Capital\u2019s chief global economist Charles Robertson has his hopes up on Egypt being the second \u201cTrump trade\u201d after Russia. Johnson\u2019s epic piece for the FT\u2019s EM Squared section is headlined \u201cForeign investors return to beaten-up Egypt<\/a>\u201d and notes that the market has \u201cturned bullish even as Egyptians battle food inflation of 37%.\u201d<\/p>\n

Where does the EGP settle? <\/strong>Johnson quotes RenCap and Capital Economics, giving a range of EGP 12.90 to EGP 14.00 to the greenback.<\/p>\n

The Ismail government\u2019s reforms are boosting appetite for the EGP<\/strong>, the Financial Times<\/a>\u2019 Heba Saleh writes. EFG-Hermes economist Mohamed Abu Basha tells Saleh, \u201cWe are starting to turn a corner because now there is liquidity and the [USD] is coming down \u2026 Companies now say they are finding the [USD] they need in the banks and some are holding off buying because the price will come down<\/strong>.\u201d A London-based economist told Saleh, \u201cthe mood among international investors toward Egyptian risk is currently very positive \u2014 the global environment is supportive and the market recognises the improvement in Egypt\u2019s prospects since the IMF deal \u2026 But for now, the support is still short term. Egypt needs to prove it can follow through with reforms and rebalancing if the hot money in its local market is to turn into long-term financing.\u201d Pharos Holding\u2019s head of research Radwa El-Swaify says, \u201cHoarders have been offloading their [USD] after they heard that foreigners are now entering the market,\u201d and adds that \u201cone thing reassuring investors is that the IMF continues to monitor Egypt. Investors think there is huge potential<\/strong> but they are still testing the water.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, CI Capital senior economist Hany Farahat sees rising FX liquidity and the clearing of the investor backlog as steps in the right direction, telling Bloomberg TV<\/a> (runtime: 5:59) on Thursday he sees a stronger EGP in 2017<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

International optimism about Egypt\u2019s economy continues: Economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch see declining bond yields as one of the primary indicators that stabilizing foreign reserves and an appreciation of the EGP are drawing in foreign investors, according to its February insight report. The report takes the view the reform agenda has galvanized demand […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[72,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-651681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-enterpriseam","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b6be1680-172d-49ad-9281-252b65de4151","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"961f101b-8983-498f-a1d3-3af80098627d","story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[651672],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nInternational optimism about Egypt\u2019s economy continues - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/02\/19\/international-optimism-about-egypts-economy-continues\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"International optimism about Egypt\u2019s economy continues\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"International optimism about Egypt\u2019s economy continues: Economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch see declining bond yields as one of the primary indicators that stabilizing foreign reserves and an appreciation of the EGP are drawing in foreign investors, according to its February insight report. 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