{"id":650799,"date":"2024-10-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/10\/inflation-accelerates-for-a-second-month-in-september-to-26-4\/"},"modified":"2024-10-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-10T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-accelerates-for-a-second-month-in-september-to-26-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/10\/inflation-accelerates-for-a-second-month-in-september-to-26-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation accelerates for a second month in September to 26.4%"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inflation <\/strong>n<\/strong>udges<\/strong> h<\/strong>igher for the second consecutive month in September<\/strong>:<\/strong> Annual headline urban inflation ticked up for a second month, rising 0.2 percentage points from the month before<\/a> to 26.4% in September, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. Despite inflation picking up, the figure still places the rate of inflation a whole 11.6 percentage points below the record 38.0% recorded during the same period last year<\/a>.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

Driving the uptick were energy costs<\/strong>: Electricity, gas, and other fuel prices accelerated at a rate of 34.8% during September, up from 15.5% in August. Behind the increase was a 50% rise<\/a> in the price of subsidized butane gas cylinders and electricity price hikes<\/a> that came into effect in September, this came on top of fuel price hikes<\/a> of up to 15% that came into effect in late July.<\/p>\n

Food and beverage prices helped stem the uptick in inflationary pressures:<\/strong> Food and beverage prices \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 rose at a softer rate of 27.7% y-o-y in September, down from 29.0% in August. On a m-o-m basis, however, food prices climbed by 2.6% in September \u2014 up from 1.8% the month before \u2014 contributing to the 2.1% m-o-m rise in urban inflation, the same level seen in August. <\/p>\n

Quite a few analysts seemed to think that inflation would go the other way:<\/strong> A Reuters poll of 19 analysts forecasted<\/a> annual urban inflation easing to 26.0% \u2014 0.4 percentage points below the month\u2019s actual reading. A CNBC Arabia poll of 10 economists<\/a> revealed a split outlook for September\u2019s inflation figure, with half of those surveyed penciling in up to a 1.5 percentage point dip in inflation due to a favorable base effect.<\/p>\n

Annual core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 inched down<\/strong>, with the Central Bank of Egypt recording<\/a> an annual core inflation of 25.0% in September, down 0.1 percentage point from 25.1% in August. However, monthly core inflation went in the reverse direction, picking up 0.1 percentage points to 1.0%. <\/p>\n

T<\/strong>he inflationary road ahead is positive \u2014 albeit bumpy: <\/strong>Some, including Capital Economics<\/a>MENA Economis<\/a>t James Swanstom<\/a>, see inflation inching up for the third consecutive month in October as \u201crecent price hikes feed in.\u201d However, the outlook for the rest of 4Q is more positive and even more optimistic walking into 2025 \u2014 inflation is expected to see \u201ca sharper drop back into single digits in 1Q 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n

But not everyone agrees that we will necessarily see inflation dipping by the end of the <\/strong>year: <\/strong>Others see the inflationary trend potentially taking a bit longer to unravel, including Al Ahly Pharos analyst Esraa Ahmed, who warns of some potential \u201cinflation stickiness\u201d to come in the last quarter. Ahmed points to seasonal factors to do with education, a possible fuel price hike, and the absence of a significantly positive base effect.<\/p>\n

To cut, or not to cut? <\/strong>The slight acceleration in inflation for the month makes it ever more likely that the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will keep rates as they are when it meets in exactly a week\u2019s time. Economist Mona Bedair agrees, writing that \u201cgiven the current inflation dynamics, a thorough assessment is needed,\u201d adding that \u201cwhile global monetary easing may create favorable conditions for reducing rates, the CBE's primary mandate remains to stabilize inflation and anchor inflation expectations.\u201d <\/p>\n

Geopolitics may also throw a spanner in the works<\/strong>, according to Ahmed, who describes recent developments \u2014 presumably in relation to Israel\u2019s ever-expansive war on neighboring countries \u2014 that are making their mark on oil and wheat prices. These developments could further pressure the central bank to put any plan to start easing rates on hold, explained Ahmed.<\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>The central bank left interest rates unchanged in its last meeting in September<\/a>, citing cooling domestic and global inflation, an uncertain local trajectory for commodity prices, and slow economic growth. Rates have been stable since March, when the central bank delivered a jumbo <\/a>600 bps rate hike<\/a> that accompanied the float of the EGP.<\/p>\n

The international press also picked up the story: <\/strong>Bloomberg<\/a> | Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation is still 11.6 percentage points below the record 38.0% recorded in the same period last year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":650800,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-650799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c7c709e1-e024-43f6-891f-8690610c2724","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/7\/949.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Inflation in Egypt accelerates for a second month in September to 26.4%","related_issue":[650791],"teaser":"Inflation is still 11.6 percentage points below the record 38.0% recorded in the same period last year","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/10\/.f1ee5d75-c893-4681-b107-784ce4c9524f.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nInflation accelerates for a second month in September to 26.4% - 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The slight acceleration marks the second consecutive\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/6\/994.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556077,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/11\/inflation-hits-20-month-high-in-september\/","url_meta":{"origin":650799,"position":1},"title":"Inflation hits 20-month high in September","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation continued its upward trend in September, hitting a 20-month high on the back of increasing food, healthcare and education costs, according to Capmas figures released yesterday. Headline urban inflation jumped to 6.6% last month, up from 5.7% in August. This is the highest annual inflation rate since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/113.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":653583,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/20\/central-bank-holds-interest-rates-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":650799,"position":2},"title":"Central bank holds interest rates in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 October 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"All 11 analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM forecasted the decision to keep rates on hold","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/828.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573589,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/11\/egypts-inflation-decelerated-in-july-to-4-2-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":650799,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation decelerated in July to 4.2%, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation decelerated to 4.2% in July, down from an uptick to 5.6% in June, according to central bank figures (pdf). The central bank attributed the decline to a favorable base effect. Monthly headline urban figures remained restrained at 0.4% in July, compared to 1.8% during the same month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/75.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564507,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/10\/headline-inflation-slowed-last-month-does-it-make-a-rate-cut-more-likely\/","url_meta":{"origin":650799,"position":4},"title":"Headline inflation slowed last month \u2014 does it make a rate cut more likely?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation in January slowed to its lowest level since September 2020. Urban headline inflation dropped for the second consecutive month to 4.3% from 5.4% in December 2020, and closing in on a 3.7% record low reading last September, figures from state statistics agency Capmas (pdf) and the central\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/429.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597658,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/13\/inflation-hits-new-record-high-in-july-but-cools-slightly-month-on-month\/","url_meta":{"origin":650799,"position":5},"title":"Inflation hits new record high in July, but cools slightly month-on-month","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Food prices were almost 70% higher compared with a year ago","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/537.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/650799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=650799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/650799\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/650791"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/650800"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=650799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=650799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=650799"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=650799"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=650799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}