{"id":647852,"date":"2017-05-22T03:20:30","date_gmt":"2017-05-22T03:20:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/05\/22\/mpc-hikes-key-interest-rates-200-bps\/"},"modified":"2017-05-22T03:20:30","modified_gmt":"2017-05-22T03:20:30","slug":"mpc-hikes-key-interest-rates-200-bps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/05\/22\/mpc-hikes-key-interest-rates-200-bps\/","title":{"rendered":"MPC hikes key interest rates 200 bps"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The central bank unexpectedly hiked interest rates last night by 200 bps to a new record<\/strong>high:<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee moved against market expectations on Sunday night when it decided to raise key interest rates by 200 bps, bringing the overnight deposit rate up to 16.75%, overnight lending rate to 17.75%, and discount rate to 17.25%<\/strong>, according to a CBE statement<\/a>. Despite monthly inflation levels being on a cooling trend, annual rates are still high, leading the MPC to decide \u201cthat tightening monetary conditions warranted a commitment to its price stability mandate.\u201d While monthly headline inflation cooled to 1.69% in April (\u201cits third consecutive month of decline due to fading cost-push pressures\u201d), the MPC suggested it was concerned that \u201ccore inflation which excludes volatile food items grew by 1.10 percent (m\/m) in April, recording a slight increase after decelerating in February and March.\u201d<\/p>\n

Throw in the 300 bps bump that accompanied the float of the EGP and interest rates are up<\/strong>500 bps since November.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The hike is \u201cconsistent with the targeted disinflation path,\u201d <\/strong>the central bank said,and is in line with the CBE\u2019s view that inflation will cool to something in the 13% band by the end of 2018 \u201cand to single digits thereafter.\u201d So why is a rate hike the way to go? <\/strong>In the language of the MPC, a rate hike can be used to \u201ccontain demand-side pressures and second-round effects resulting from supply shocks that may lead to deviations from inflation targets, as well as to achieve reserve money targets that were designed to be consistent with the inflation targets.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard not to see the IMF\u2019s hand at play here. <\/strong>Our friends in the banking community and just about every analyst with whom Bloomberg<\/a> and Reuters<\/a> spoke for their respective polls in the run up to yesterday said the rate hike was a bad idea. It would, Bloomberg said, be \u201ccounterproductive because the price gains are not being driven by excess demand.\u201d To say nothing about interest rates being a lousy means of transmitting monetary policy in a nation as un-banked as ours, where (generously) perhaps one in five citizens has access to the banking system and SMEs still struggle to qualify for credit. And yet the IMF has \u2014 at the highest levels<\/a> \u2014 made clear since April that an interest rate hike was the way to go to curb inflation. It could work. Then again, if our aunt underwent gender reassignment surgery, she could become our uncle.<\/p>\n

REAX: <\/strong>Bloomberg<\/a> quotes Arqaam Capital\u2019s Reham El-Desoki as explaining that the decision \u201cis the textbook answer to high inflation, but the data and the weak transmission channels in Egypt do not warrant an additional rate increase<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Why would you invest in your business today? <\/strong>As an earlier research note from Arqaam noted before last night\u2019s rate hike, a 200 bps rise in interest rates \u201cwould render investment irrational at such high cost of debt.\u201d <\/strong>And don\u2019t get us started on (a) the staggering implications on the cost of borrowing for the state or (b) the shift in the nation\u2019s long-term debt structure if the treasury keeps tapping international debt markets in foreign currency because it\u2019s so much more affordable to borrow in hard currency.<\/p>\n

You can catch early news pieces on the late-night hike from <\/strong>Reuters<\/strong><\/a> and <\/strong>Bloomberg<\/strong><\/a>, and we\u2019ll have a proper roundup of reactions for you tomorrow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The central bank unexpectedly hiked interest rates last night by 200 bps to a new recordhigh: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee moved against market expectations on Sunday night when it decided to raise key interest rates by 200 bps, bringing the overnight deposit rate up to 16.75%, overnight lending rate to 17.75%, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[72,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-647852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-enterpriseam","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"14f35615-d2d7-4160-a658-5207ddd2494a","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[647846],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nMPC hikes key interest rates 200 bps - 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