{"id":647023,"date":"2024-10-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-07T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/07\/industry-leaders-tell-us-what-to-look-out-for-in-2025\/"},"modified":"2024-10-07T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-07T00:00:00","slug":"industry-leaders-tell-us-what-to-look-out-for-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/07\/industry-leaders-tell-us-what-to-look-out-for-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Industry leaders tell us what to look out for in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

The stakes are high for Egypt\u2019s financial future as 2025 approaches<\/strong>. With uncertainty still lingering, we turned to three industry leaders to share their expectations on pressing topics such as M&A activity, debt flows, the all-important FX rate for the coming year, as well as key pieces of legislation and regulation now in the pipeline. <\/p>\n

We convened a panel of leading financial experts at this year\u2019s EnterpriseAM Finance Forum<\/strong> \u2014 we spoke to Ahmed Sobhy<\/strong>, chief investment officer at Banque Misr, Amr Helal<\/strong>, CEO of sell-side investment bank at CI Capital, and Kamel Saleh<\/strong>, managing partner and CEO of Grant Thornton to find out their thoughts about the road ahead.<\/p>\n

Cautious optimism is returning to Egypt\u2019s business landscape after a tough year<\/strong>. While \u201ceveryone was expecting the worst,\u201d recent macro adjustments and a government shake-up currently offer \u201cpositive signs,\u201d according to Sobhy. Saleh echoed the optimistic sentiment while acknowledging the many challenges ahead that need to be addressed. \u201cOur clients are coming to us for advice related mostly to their challenges in realizing their ambitions in investing or in growing in Egypt,\u201d Saleh said.<\/p>\n

M&As will take some time to pick up pace<\/strong>, according to Helal. Despite the float of the currency, the expected surge in transaction flow hasn't occurred, but Helal insists this delay was anticipated. \u201cIt's no surprise to us,\u201d he said, pointing out that it would take \u201ctwo to three quarters\u201d of monitoring before seeing significant movement. He expects a \u201cmeaningful pickup in dealflow\u201d by 1Q 2025, as inbound inquiries are already on the rise \u2014 an encouraging sign for Egypt's capital markets.<\/p>\n

Everyone\u2019s holding out for the first domino to fall:<\/strong> The main hurdle to growth and investment inflows in Egypt is a pervasive lack of trust that has left everyone waiting for someone else to make the first move, Sobhy highlighted. This standoff is a major obstacle that needs to be overcome to reignite investment activity, according to Sobhy.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to make<\/strong> the stock market a place where people want to invest,\u201d <\/strong>Sobhy said, emphasizing the need for greater participation from pension funds and ins. companies. With less than 5% of Egypt's pension funds invested in the stock market \u2014 compared to 20% in other countries \u2014 he warned that this misallocation is diverting capital from productive sectors and reducing activity on the EGX. Sobhy argued that investing in the stock market, particularly through pension funds, is more beneficial than focusing solely on t-bills, which \u201cfeed the government deficit\u201d without supporting long-term infrastructure projects.<\/p>\n

\u201c<\/strong>We need more targeted incentives<\/strong>,\u201d<\/strong> Saleh said. \u201cWe really can't have a tax system that is taxing inflation because that erodes capital competence, and erodes equity,\u201d he said, expressing hopeful caution that inflation could decline within a year but stressed the need for regulators to \u201cact very, very quickly.\u201d <\/p>\n

What can bring in more investors to Egypt right now?<\/strong> \u201cThere is a lot of international interest in Egyptian assets today. That could be because they're cheap, and I get that people don't like the fact that your assets are cheap. But you have to start somewhere,\u201d Sobhy said. The high risk premium attached to investing in Egypt makes assets cheaper, offering early investors a unique, albeit riskier, opportunity. <\/p>\n

We have a <\/strong>great location a<\/strong>nd a strong labor force, <\/strong>according to Sobhy, pointing out Egypt's proximity to key markets like Europe and the surrounding MENA region. He also highlighted trends of friendshoring, \u201cEuropean companies are coming here to acquire smaller factories for export purposes, while Chinese companies, looking for lower tariffs on their goods, are choosing to manufacture in Egypt.\u201d Sobhy also highlighted strong Gulf investment in Egypt\u2019s tourism-focused real estate and noted that sectors like business services and Fintech, which leverage Egypt's human capital, have consistently thrived and are expected to continue doing so.<\/p>\n

What USD rate are you using for next year\u2019s budget? <\/strong>\u201cEarly 50s end of year next year. We want to make sure that we're ready for the slight devaluation. However, there are a lot of very positive headwinds for FX,\u201d Sobhy said. \u201cThe implied rate in the IMF reports \u2014 which I think is way over the top \u2014 is 57 for 2025. We\u2019re thinking around the 50 plus range. But these are hopes, not just predictions,\u201d Saleh said.<\/p>\n

Which sectors look promising today?<\/strong> Consumer-focused businesses are coming out of the economic challenges \u201cin much better shape,\u201d according to Helal, with local players gaining market share from multinationals. He also mentioned IT services, where companies \u201cearn FX with a largely EGP-denominated cost base.\u201d Helal is less optimistic about high-capex projects, especially those reliant on imports, due to longer payback periods and increased risk aversion during recovery.<\/p>\n

Shifting our money from gold and real estate necessitates making financial assets more <\/strong>attractive and accessible<\/strong>, according to Saleh. \u201cThe ease of doing transactions and the cost of the transactions need to be looked at.\u201d The uncertainty surrounding capital gains tax on the sale of shares, particularly taxing inflation-driven gains, is a significant deterrent to investment and needs to be looked at, according to Saleh. <\/p>\n

\u201cI would do away with the capital gains tax in its entirety<\/strong>,\u201d Helal said, expressing doubt about the tax's ability to generate meaningful revenue. He argued that eliminating the tax could incentivize more companies to list on the stock market, \u201cbut obviously the listing has to have an economic viability,\u201d Helal cautioned.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lot of liquidity in the market as a hedge against devaluation and inflation, <\/strong>Helal said. \u201cI think more needs to be done to encourage those investors, especially as interest rates come down and the easy money from parking funds in treasuries or government securities fades, to increase their allocation to the stock market.\u201d <\/p>\n

We can\u2019t expect foreign capital to flood our stock market before we do<\/strong>, Helal said, noting that \u201coutside capital needs to see the local capital heavily invested in their home markets to feel a sense of security.\u201d With continued domestic participation and the return of regional and international inflows, Helal believes trading activity could eventually surpass previous years, even in USD terms.<\/p>\n

Where would you invest USD 500 mn today?<\/strong> \u201cLong-term prospects for Egypt are very high, given our potential to export to Europe, to build industry, to serve Europe and the region and Africa,\u201d Saleh said. Sobhy believes Egypt offers attractive long-term returns, particularly in sectors that leverage the country's competitive advantages. Sobhy cautioned against investing in low-value, consumption-based sectors that rely heavily on foreign capital, stressing that the focus should shift towards investment and exports rather than consumption.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cautious optimism is returning to Egypt\u2019s business landscape after a tough year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":647024,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7318],"tags":[576,136,7317,72,2560,1473],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-647023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-enterprise-finance-forum","tag-banque-misr","tag-ci-capital","tag-enterprise-finance-forum","tag-enterpriseam","tag-grant-thornton","tag-investment-banking","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7d798aeb-af3b-4c50-8a81-cd8cc213e982","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/428.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Industry leaders tell us what to look out for in 2025","related_issue":[647018],"teaser":"Cautious optimism is returning to Egypt\u2019s business landscape after a tough year","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/10\/.a5a40e6f-858b-431c-ae7b-08b403cff6c1.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nIndustry leaders tell us what to look out for in 2025 - 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The state-owned lender could \u201cintegrate\u201d the activities of the two investment arms and will likely combine some operations, including\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "M&A WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"M&A WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/ma-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/236.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568848,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/05\/egypts-banque-du-caire-to-offer-45-stake-in-1h2020-ipo\/","url_meta":{"origin":647023,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s Banque du Caire to offer 45% stake in 1H2020 IPO","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"IPO WATCH- Banque du Caire to offer 45% stake in 1H2020 IPO: State-owned Banque du Caire (BdC) will offer a 45% stake on the EGX in 1H2020, Banque Misr Chairman Mohamed Eletreby said, according to Reuters. Banque Misr is BdC\u2019s majority shareholder. BdC chairman Tarek Fayed said last year that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":576560,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/30\/palm-hills-closes-egp-1-25-bn-securitized-bond-sale-more-corporate-sukuk-issuance-on-the-way\/","url_meta":{"origin":647023,"position":3},"title":"Palm Hills closes EGP 1.25 bn securitized bond sale + more corporate sukuk issuance on the way","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 November 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Palm Hills (PHD) has closed a triple-tranche EGP 1.25 bn securitized bond issuance, in a transaction handled by CI Capital Investment Banking (CIIB) and the Arab African Bank, Palm Hills (pdf) and CI Capital (pdf) said in EGX filings. The issuance, backed by a receivables portfolio worth EGP 1.5 bn,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "DEBT WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"DEBT WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/debt-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/310.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596441,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/28\/hany-farahat-appointed-as-general-manager-at-egypts-banque-misr\/","url_meta":{"origin":647023,"position":4},"title":"Hany Farahat appointed as general manager at Egypt\u2019s Banque Misr","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"MOVES- Hany Farahat (LinkedIn) has left his position as CI Capital\u2019s chief economist and has been appointed as general manager and head of market intelligence at Banque Misr. Farahat joined CI Capital back in 2014, following a five-year spell as the head of client portfolio management at Beltone Financial. He\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566782,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/13\/ci-capital-board-gives-banque-misr-preliminary-approval-for-souhoola-majority-stake-purchase\/","url_meta":{"origin":647023,"position":5},"title":"CI Capital board gives Banque Misr preliminary approval for Souhoola majority stake purchase","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 July 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"CI Capital\u2019s board gives initial nod to the sale of a controlling stake in Souhoola to Banque Misr. The board approved in principle a non-binding offer from state-owned Banque Misr \u2014 the investment bank\u2019s parent company \u2014 to purchase CI\u2019s entire 98.01% stake in its consumer finance subsidiary, Souhoola, according\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: M&A WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: M&A WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-ma-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/647023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=647023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/647023\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/647018"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/647024"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=647023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=647023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=647023"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=647023"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=647023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}