{"id":644666,"date":"2024-09-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/30\/risky-assets-rally-as-central-banks-pivot-to-easing\/"},"modified":"2024-09-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T00:00:00","slug":"risky-assets-rally-as-central-banks-pivot-to-easing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/30\/risky-assets-rally-as-central-banks-pivot-to-easing\/","title":{"rendered":"Risky assets rally as central banks pivot to easing"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wall Street's enthusiasm for risky assets is on the rise, fueled by <\/strong>glocal <\/strong>policy-easing<\/strong>, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. Emerging-market equities, stocks closely tied to the economic cycle, and speculative technology investments are experiencing renewed interest as central banks in China and Europe \u2014 as well as the US Federal Reserve \u2014 begin to cut rates after holding them at decade highs for years.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

The biggest winners: <\/strong>The S&P 500 is on track to reach its best first three quarters since 1997, with a 20% YTD gain. Meanwhile, BlackRock\u2019s momentum ETF hit record highs, up nearly 30% for the year, while the Societe Generale index is \u201cflashing hot,\u201d reaching its highest level in over a year, with the gauge only reaching those levels 5% or so of the time. <\/p>\n

More signs of bulls in the market: <\/strong>Hedges are underperforming, while Goldman Sachs basket of most-shorted stocks is up 17% year-to-date, the business information service said. <\/p>\n

Still, stretched valuations pose risks<\/strong>, market watchers warn, with some stressing the need for \u201ctactical caution.\u201d Momentum indicators suggest the current euphoria may be difficult to sustain in the short term. <\/p>\n

CLOSER TO HOME<\/strong>- DFM's impressive growth faces headwinds from geopolitical risks, analysts warn: <\/strong>The Dubai Financial Market General Index surged 12% in 3Q 2024, reaching its highest level since 2014, driven by strong performances from companies like Emirates NBD Bank, Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, and Salik, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. However, analysts warn that geopolitical risks and the challenge of finding appealing valuations may dampen future gains. In Abu Dhabi, the market advanced 5%, its best quarter since March 2022, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index climbed about 6%, marking the best quarter of the year so far.<\/p>\n

Despite favorable earnings and a tourism-driven economy bolstering the market, investor sentiment remains cautious.<\/strong> Tellimer's emerging market equity strategist in Dubai notes that stocks will now be \u201cmore sensitive to any setbacks than further good news.\u201d Reflecting this caution, HSBC strategists have shifted their stance on the UAE and Saudi Arabia from overweight to neutral, citing heightened geopolitical risk and low oil prices as potential headwinds. However, some analysts such as Daman Investment\u2019s Divye Arora believe valuations remain attractive, with major Dubai companies offering appealing dividend yields exceeding 5% for 2025 amid declining bond yields.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are having a rough start to the week,<\/strong> with Japan\u2019s Nikkei down 4% in the wake of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party election on Friday. South Korea\u2019s Kospi and the Kosdaq also fell around 0.5%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures<\/strong> are flat going into the final day of 3Q 2024. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31,459<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +26.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.34<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.48<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.34<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.44<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,272<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8% (YTD: +2.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,469<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: -1.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,521<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +11.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,738<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +20.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,321<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +7.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,067<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +12.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 71.98<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+5.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,668<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 65,858<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +55.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.6% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 4.3 bn (7.4% above the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 26.4% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Abu Qir Fertilizers (+4.0%), EFG Holding (+2.7%), and Ezz Steel (+2.2%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Eastern Company (-1.8%), Emaar Misr (-1.1%), and Telecom Egypt (-0.9%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investors are bullish on EM equities and speculative tech bets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":644667,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[163,72,119,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-644666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-dubai","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"11308a9d-2e03-48e6-8e47-dcd5d6c8e529","order":"10","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/3\/1775.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Risky assets rally as central banks pivot to easing","related_issue":[644649],"teaser":"Investors are bullish on EM equities and speculative tech bets","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/9\/.0a496fee-41d2-406e-91be-2c1bdbff7de4.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nRisky assets rally as central banks pivot to easing - 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The main takeaway here: Take each and every forecast with a handful of salt.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572392,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/23\/em-central-bankers-starting-to-become-fond-of-quantitative-easing-policies\/","url_meta":{"origin":644666,"position":1},"title":"EM central bankers starting to become fond of quantitative easing policies","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Nearly a dozen emerging-market central banks are starting to become fond of quantitative easing, a practice traditionally limited to the developed world, says the Financial Times. This is a shift from previous crisis handling policies in EMs, which have usually stayed away from QE. The experiment \u2014 which involves central\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/253.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":601448,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/28\/ems-beginning-to-boom\/","url_meta":{"origin":644666,"position":2},"title":"EMs beginning to boom?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EM inflows in January could signal the start of a boom period for developing economies, CrossBorder Capital MD Michael Howell argues in a piece for the FT. Data from multiple sources has suggested that financial inflows into emerging markets hit their highest levels in over a year in January. CrossBorder\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/2\/EM-currencies-web.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":626375,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/07\/01\/bis-warns-against-slashing-interest-rates-too-soon\/","url_meta":{"origin":644666,"position":3},"title":"BIS warns against slashing interest rates too soon","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 July 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Central banks should keep an eye on risks like high public debt and falling property values","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/6\/1912.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547568,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/27\/forever-inflation-would-be-worse-than-recession-says-central-banks-bank-value-stocks-are-outperforming-equities-but-both-are-down-ytd\/","url_meta":{"origin":644666,"position":4},"title":"Forever-inflation would be worse than recession, says central banks\u2019 bank + Value stocks are outperforming equities \u2014 but both are down YTD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"What\u2019s worse than a recession? Entrenched inflation, influential banking body warns: The Bank for International Settlements \u2014 which performs banking services for central banks worldwide \u2014 has called for a \u201cdecisive\u201d wave of global rate hikes from central banks to curb inflation in its flagship annual economic report (pdf) published\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":601660,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/06\/em-growth-potential-and-the-factors-impacting-it\/","url_meta":{"origin":644666,"position":5},"title":"EM growth potential and the factors impacting it","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 March 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Global equities are currently risk-positive as inflows into risk assets remain low, investors remain long on cash and central banks hold off rate-hikes, Dwyfor Evans, Macro Strategist for State Street, argues on Bloomberg Radio (listen, runtime: 06:57). Evans highlights EM equities and Chinese equities as being particularly attractive. \u201cIf you\u2019re\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Worth Listening"","block_context":{"text":"Worth Listening","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/worth-listening\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/3\/1557.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/644666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=644666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/644666\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/644649"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/644667"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=644666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=644666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=644666"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=644666"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=644666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}