{"id":644654,"date":"2024-09-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/30\/what-will-it-take-to-reignite-investor-confidence\/"},"modified":"2024-09-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T00:00:00","slug":"what-will-it-take-to-reignite-investor-confidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/30\/what-will-it-take-to-reignite-investor-confidence\/","title":{"rendered":"What will it take to reignite investor confidence?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>What needs to be done to reignite investor confidence?<\/strong> Even after the float of the EGP and steps towards ambitious reforms underway, investors remain cautious about the local market, so what else needs to be done? We spoke to industry leaders to understand how recent reforms will shape the country\u2019s financial landscape, which sectors they\u2019re banking on, and more broadly their outlook for the coming years. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>We brought together some of the country\u2019s leading financial experts at this year\u2019s <\/strong><strong>EnterpriseAM Finance Forum <\/strong>\u2014 we spoke to <strong>Ahmed Issa<\/strong>, executive board member and deputy CEO of Banque Misr and former tourism minister, <strong>Helmy Ghazi<\/strong>, deputy CEO and head of global banking at HSBC Egypt, and <strong>Karim Awad<\/strong>, group CEO and chairman of the executive committee at EFG Holding to gain a clearer picture of Egypt\u2019s economic trajectory. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Egypt's FX market is showing positive signs of stabilization and growth:<\/strong> The market is currently \u201cclearing at the unified exchange rate,\u201d according to Ghazi, with backlogs clearing and a liquid interbank market. Awad echoed this sentiment, highlighting that since the float, foreign investors were able exit large positions smoothly and with relatively few issues. Issa added that a \u201cnascent healthy market\u201d is emerging in Egypt, characterized by a trading range with fluctuations based on market dynamics.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>So, what levels should we expect the greenback to change hands at next year? <\/strong>Our panelists couldn\u2019t agree on a number, with Ghazi telling us that HSBC is penciling the USD as EGP 48 by the end of next year and Awad expecting the EGP to settle a \"little bit higher.\"<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>And what about rates?<\/strong> \u201cWe're projecting a 1 percentage point drop in 2024, and a 6 percentage point drop in 2025,\u201d Ghazi said. Ideally, this level of monetary easing should be enough to incentivize new investments, he added. The combination of lower interest rates in developed markets and wage levels that have not kept pace with inflation is setting the stage for an \u201cinterest rate reduction cycle expected to begin in the coming months,\u201d Issa said. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What will it take for FDI inflows to pick up? <\/strong>\u201cThe Egyptian private sector has to invest first before we start seeing foreign direct investment coming in,\u201d Awad said, highlighting that multinational companies already investing in Egypt are the biggest promoters of FDI. \u201cIt\u2019s a game of patience. I don't think our expectation should be that FDI jumps right away.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Foreign investors are interested:<\/strong> \u201cWe\u2019re seeing a surge in inquiries, particularly from Asia and Europe,\u201d said Ghazi. \u201cThere\u2019s growing interest across industries like consumer goods and renewables, but it\u2019s still early.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Are expectations outpacing reality?<\/strong> \u201cIf you look at the numbers, Egypt has been the top recipient of FDI in all of Africa consistently for the past five years,\u201d Issa said. Egypt is getting its fair share of foreign investments among emerging markets, so if it feels like our FDI inflows are below expectations that\u2019s because we have \u201chigher expectations of global shifts in capital, of global capital flows into the south in general,\u201d according to Issa. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Investors want concrete evidence the state is pulling back:<\/strong> \u201cIt\u2019s almost like a snowball effect\u2026We need to see actual privatization and assets being sold,\u201d Awad said. Traction on long-discussed transactions, particularly in the energy sector, would signal to investors that the government\u2019s commitment to the privatization program is serious, he added. \u201cThe main impediment to privatization today will continue to be the valuations\u2026I think at one point, you will have to make a decision: do I need to balance the valuation and the proceeds I'm getting versus the overall sentiment that I will create by undertaking that transaction or not.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>With minimal state intervention, how do we hit our renewables goals?<\/strong> Establishing USD-denominated offtake agreements is crucial for attracting international project financing, according to Ghazi, who highlighted the importance of public-private partnerships (PPPs) for large-scale projects, particularly in renewables and hydrogen. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>It\u2019s a long arduous process:<\/strong> \u201cThe structuring period takes around a year and putting a financial clause in place could take another two,\u201d Ghazi explained, highlighting the complexity of PPPs. There are also significant challenges with social infrastructure projects, where cash flows are denominated in EGP while project costs are typically in USD, complicating fundraising efforts. Attracting funding for these large-scale projects necessitates long-term private equity and infrastructure investors, according to Awad.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What does all this mean for the banking sector? <\/strong>\u201cWe're expecting double-digit growth in both loans and deposits in 2025,\u201d Ghazi said, noting that current loan growth in the banking sector has been primarily driven by working capital facilities. As more investors come in 2025, \u201cwe're hoping to see a mix of working capital and investment-driven loans, largely due to the anticipated drop in interest rates, which should incentivize further investments,\u201d Ghazi added.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>You can\u2019t mention banking without bringing up NBFS: <\/strong>The non-banking financial sector is surprisingly resilient, Awad said, pointing to its low credit losses across leasing, factoring, microfinance, and consumer lending despite economic challenges. \u201cYou\u2019d expect larger credit failures, but that hasn\u2019t been the case,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Tourism: Egypt\u2019s top national project. <\/strong>Awad called the tourism sector Egypt's \u201cnumber one national project,\u201d citing its potential to generate foreign revenue with minimal foreign currency input. While Issa echoed the optimism around tourism, he noted that the necessary infrastructure \u201crequired for a tourism industry to emerge were not there\u201d until recent government initiatives. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The sector is growing quickly: <\/strong>\u201cThis calendar year will see the number of hotel rooms in Egypt rise by the fastest rate compared to the top 30 nations receiving tourism,\u201d Issa said, expressing his confidence in the government's efforts to expand hotel room capacity, predicting that Egypt could attract 30 mn tourists by 2028-2032 if current growth trends continue.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/1962.jpg?ssl=1\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Egypt's FX market is showing positive signs of stabilization and growth<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":644655,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7318],"tags":[7088,7317,72,2234,182,2460],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-644654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-enterprise-finance-forum","tag-ahmed-issa","tag-enterprise-finance-forum","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-inflation","tag-karim-awad","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b2024b80-5fdb-4a31-b468-4ad032ae6cd4","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/2202.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"What 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commercial bank arm, aiBank, has announced today that it is rebranding to Bank NXT to embark on a new phase of \u201cgrowth, digital innovation, and customer-centric solutions,\u201d the bank\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT&quot;","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/2269.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":684906,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/16\/ahmed-issa-joins-fab-misr-as-ceo\/","url_meta":{"origin":644654,"position":1},"title":"Ahmed Issa joins FAB Misr as CEO","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 February 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The former tourism minister will assume his duties this week","rel":"","context":"In 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Issa, who succeeds Mohamed El Toukhy, was previously deputy CEO of CIB\u2019s consumer banking as well as CFO.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":652581,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/01\/15\/did-you-miss-ceo-week-at-enterprise\/","url_meta":{"origin":644654,"position":3},"title":"Did you miss CEO Week at Enterprise?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 January 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Did you miss any of our CEO interviews? Last week was our first Enterprise CEO Week, and based on your response, we\u2019re going to make it a semi-annual feature. In the meantime, the roster of participants, just in case you missed an interview: Karim Awad (EFG Hermes)Ahmed Badr (Renaissance Capital)Ahmed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":622112,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/27\/efg-hermes-aims-to-have-non-bank-financial-services-deliver-50-of-profits-by-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":644654,"position":4},"title":"EFG Hermes aims to have non-bank financial services deliver 50% of profits by 2021","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"EFG Hermes aims to have non-bank financial services deliver 50% of profits by 2021: EFG Hermes aims for non-banking financial services to account for 30% of its total profit by year-end and 50% by the end of 2021, CEO Karim Awad told Reuters. The investment bank is looking to get\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/779.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":607512,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/04\/welcome-to-the-hot-seat\/","url_meta":{"origin":644654,"position":5},"title":"Welcome to the hot seat","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 October 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Three industry leaders on the opportunities + challenges in Egypt\u2019s financial sector","rel":"","context":"In &quot;ENTERPRISE FINANCE FORUM&quot;","block_context":{"text":"ENTERPRISE FINANCE FORUM","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/enterprise-finance-forum\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/9\/1168.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/644654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=644654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/644654\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/644649"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/644655"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=644654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=644654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=644654"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=644654"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=644654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}