{"id":643815,"date":"2024-09-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/16\/the-big-question-of-the-week-how-far-will-the-fed-go\/"},"modified":"2024-09-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-16T00:00:00","slug":"the-big-question-of-the-week-how-far-will-the-fed-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/16\/the-big-question-of-the-week-how-far-will-the-fed-go\/","title":{"rendered":"The big question of the week: How far will the Fed go?"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s interest rate week \u2014 and speculations are still swirling around the<\/strong> Fede<\/strong>ral Reserve\u2019s moves <\/strong>in its two-day meeting tomorrow and Wednesday, with analysts torn between the arguments for a 25 bps cut and a more aggressive 50 bps cut amid persistent inflation and a cooling job market. <\/p>\n

In one corner:<\/strong> Conservative voices argue that inflation remains a concern \u2014 particularly in the services sector \u2014 and that a smaller rate cut would be a safer move. <\/p>\n

And in the other:<\/strong> A rapidly cooling job market, which presents a more pressing risk than inflation, underpins the argument for a large rate cut, the Financial Times\u2019 editorial board argues in an op-ed<\/a>, saying that with inflation down to 2.5% \u2014 moving toward the targeted 2% \u2014 a significant rate cut would help stave off economic stagnation and support employment. The board also argues that the persistent inflationary factors are lagging behind actual market prices, and that useful indicators like wage growth, are tame by comparison. <\/p>\n

Market expectations <\/strong>tilted<\/a><\/strong> toward a larger cut over the weekend<\/strong>, buoyed by signals from former Fed officials \u2014 meaning the central bank has the opportunity to take bold action without spooking investors, the FT\u2019s board writes.<\/p>\n

Regardless of the outcome of this week\u2019s meeting, the journey to the end of the rate-cutting cycle remains fraught with uncertainty<\/strong>, writes Egyptian-American economist \u2014 and EnterpriseAM HQ favorite \u2014 Mohamed El Erian in a separate editorial<\/a> for FT. He points out that US economic growth has been more robust than many anticipated, but this growth has not been evenly distributed. Lower-income households, in particular, are feeling the strain as pandemic savings dwindle and credit card debt rises. El Erian highlights the risk of this economic weakness spreading beyond lower-income households, which could further complicate the Fed\u2019s decision-making process.<\/p>\n

Global impact of US monetary policy:<\/strong> As the Fed navigates its rate-cutting cycle, emerging markets may also feel pressure to follow suit, leading to potential disruptions in international financial stability. El Erian emphasizes that while markets are optimistic about a \u201csoft landing\u201d for the US economy, this confidence may not fully account for the complexities of global financial dynamics, particularly in the bond markets.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are mixed<\/strong> as Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng fell 0.76% on the back of disappointing economic data from China \u2014 though markets in mainland China, Japan, and South Korea were closed for national holidays. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are hovering around the flatline<\/strong> as investors hold their breath for the upcoming Fed meeting. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,498<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.04% (YTD: +22.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.37<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.51<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.38<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.48<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,900<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: -0.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,350<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: -2.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,380<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +7.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,626<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +18.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,273<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +7.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,844<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +7.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 71.61<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.31<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,610.70<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 59,619.40<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: +41.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 was almost flat at Thursday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 3.6 bn (7.4% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 22.5% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Eastern Company (+4.5%), Egypt Kuwait Holding -EGP (+3.6%), and Egypt Kuwait Holding -USD (+1.4%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Ezz Steel (-3.5%), AMOC (-3.4%), and Elsewedy Electric (-2.9%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Fed faces pressure to protect growth while rising inequality complicates the path forward<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":643816,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,119,349,122,388],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-643815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-planet-finance","tag-us-federal-reserve","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e7f4f58e-eb0f-4294-97ad-2f65c289165a","order":"13","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/565.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The big question of the week: How far will the Fed go?","related_issue":[643793],"teaser":"The Fed faces pressure to protect growth while rising inequality complicates the path forward","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/9\/.75e80f42-50f9-4c43-aecc-fa5634efdd69.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nThe big question of the week: How far will the Fed go? 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