{"id":641765,"date":"2024-09-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/02\/from-rate-watchers-to-recession-hawks-its-all-eyes-on-fridays-us-jobs-report\/"},"modified":"2024-09-02T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-02T00:00:00","slug":"from-rate-watchers-to-recession-hawks-its-all-eyes-on-fridays-us-jobs-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/02\/from-rate-watchers-to-recession-hawks-its-all-eyes-on-fridays-us-jobs-report\/","title":{"rendered":"From rate-watchers to recession hawks, it\u2019s all eyes on Friday\u2019s US jobs report"},"content":{"rendered":"

This coming <\/strong>Friday\u2019s US payroll data<\/a><\/strong> will be very closely watched by folks <\/strong>looking for data points that build the case for the US Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates<\/strong> when it meets later this month, the Financial Times<\/a> reports. Economists think the US economy added 163k jobs in August, and with Fed boss Jay Powell\u2019s emphasis on the risks of a weaker labor market, \u201cpayrolls are going to be a huge number for the markets as well as the Fed,\u201d Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree told the salmon-colored paper.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>Powell has signaled that \u201cthe time has come for policy to adjust,\u201d citing cooling inflation and slowing job growth as he foreshadowed a rate cut<\/a> this month.<\/p>\n

Pundits see the Fed going for a 25 bps rate cut<\/strong>, with a 30% chance of a deeper reduction, according to the CME\u2019s FedWatch tool. However, softer labor data could result in a 50 bps rate cut, according to brokerage FP Markets<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Weaker data could reignite recession fears:<\/strong> July\u2019s data of only 114k new jobs fell substantially short of the 175k new jobs forecast, helping spark a global market sell-off. A softer August labor figure could stoke fears of a sharper economic slowdown \u2014 and tip the scales towards a 50 bps rate.<\/p>\n

Some beg to differ:<\/strong> Despite expectations of lower payroll data, some economists are on the fence about whether it will opt for the higher rate cut. \u201cNon-farm payroll growth from April 2023 to March 2024 looks to be softer than first thought, but not worryingly so. That supports our view that when the Fed cuts interest rates it will do so in 25bp [basis points] steps, rather than a larger 50 bps cut,\u201d North America economist at Capital Economics Olivia Cross wrote in a note to investors, The Guardian<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR- The Fed\u2019s Open Markets Committee <\/strong>is next set to meet 17-18 September.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,903<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +24.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.50<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.64<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.53<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.63<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,189<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +1.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,285<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: -3.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,325<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +6.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,648<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: +18.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,377<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +8.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,958<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +9.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 76.93<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.13<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,527.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 58,432.20<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +38.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.4% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 5.9 bn (54.9% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 24.1% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Palm Hills Development (+8.2%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (+5.0%), and Beltone Holding (+4.0%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Ezz Steel (-4.3%), Cleopatra Hospitals (-2.4%), and ADIB (-1.3%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS- <\/p>\n

#1- <\/strong>City Lab<\/strong> now has until 15 September to complete its fair value study of acquisition<\/strong> target Cairo Clinical Labs<\/strong>, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf)<\/a>. In July, City Lab appointed<\/a> the Financial Advice Corporate Transactions (FACT) as independent financial advisor to provide a second opinion on Cairo Clinical Labs. <\/p>\n

\n

\n

#2- Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals is increasing its issued and paid-up capital <\/strong>to EGP 1.8 bn from EGP 1.5 bn after its extraordinary general assembly greenlit the move, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf)<\/a>. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Payroll figures will feature heavily in the Fed\u2019s decision this month on whether to start cutting interest rates \u2014 and by how much<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":641766,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,119,349,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-641765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0faa9cc3-7309-468f-979d-63720c3c7379","order":"13","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/87.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"From rate-watchers to recession hawks, it\u2019s all eyes on Friday\u2019s US jobs report","related_issue":[641742],"teaser":"Payroll figures will feature heavily in the Fed\u2019s decision this month on whether to start cutting interest rates \u2014 and by how much","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/9\/.5b4a099c-d99b-4a67-b091-b48e5a374aed.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nFrom rate-watchers to recession hawks, it\u2019s all eyes on Friday\u2019s US jobs report - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/02\/from-rate-watchers-to-recession-hawks-its-all-eyes-on-fridays-us-jobs-report\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"From rate-watchers to recession hawks, it\u2019s all 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means the Fed is unlikely to take its foot off the gas in coming meetings, economists and analysts said in reaction to job figures released Friday, which showed employers added 528k jobs to the economy in July, beating all estimates.This\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":582745,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/16\/the-us-banking-crisis-has-upended-expectations-for-fed-rate-policy\/","url_meta":{"origin":641765,"position":1},"title":"The US banking crisis has upended expectations for Fed rate policy","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Bond traders now expect the central bank to start cutting rates in June","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET 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