{"id":639836,"date":"2024-08-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/08\/15\/analysts-are-penciling-in-rate-cuts-after-us-inflation-cools-to-lowest-level-in-years\/"},"modified":"2024-08-15T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-08-15T00:00:00","slug":"analysts-are-penciling-in-rate-cuts-after-us-inflation-cools-to-lowest-level-in-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/08\/15\/analysts-are-penciling-in-rate-cuts-after-us-inflation-cools-to-lowest-level-in-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts are penciling in rate cuts after US inflation cools to lowest level in years"},"content":{"rendered":"

Analysts are screaming rate cuts after lower-than-expected inflation figures: <\/strong>US inflation fell under the 3% mark in July for the first time since March 2021, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September. The consumer price index fell to 2.9% last month, down from 3% in June, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures (pdf)<\/a> released yesterday. The figure undercut economists\u2019 expectations that inflation would hold steady at 3%.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

Another cue for the Fed to cut rates: <\/strong>The slowdown in price growth should give the Fed \u201cfurther confidence\u201d that inflation is heading towards its 2% target, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist David Kelly told the Financial Times<\/a>. \u201cThe bottom line is this keeps the Fed on track for 25 basis points in September,\u201d Point72 chief economist Dean Maki told the FT. <\/p>\n

What are the odds? <\/strong>CME Group's FedWatch tool<\/a> sees a 64% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the Fed's upcoming 17-18 September policy meeting.<\/p>\n

Incoming labor data will also play a role in what the Fed does next: <\/strong>\u201cThis is now a labor data-first Fed, not an inflation data-first Fed, and the incoming labor data will determine how aggressively the Fed pulls forward rate cuts,\u201d Evercore\u2019s Krishna Guha told Bloomberg<\/a>, adding that the Fed is looking at the bigger picture rather than plain data. <\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>The US unemployment rate rose to a near three-year high of 4.3% in July<\/a>, raising recession fears and concerns that the central bank is behind in cutting interest rates and contributing to a market meltdown a day later. <\/p>\n

Market reax: <\/strong>Stock markets rose on the news, with the S&P 500 continuing to rise for a fifth consecutive day, marking its longest winning streak in over a month. The gains echoed across the board, the Nasdaq closed up 0.1% and the Dow Jones rose 0.6%.<\/p>\n

ALSO FROM PLANET FINANCE- The biggest transaction of the year: <\/strong>Candy giant Mars will acquire Kellogg spinoff company Kellanova in a USD 36 bn transaction \u2014 2024\u2019s largest. (Statement<\/a>) <\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are in the green this morning<\/strong> after better-than-expected growth figures from Japan<\/a> and inflation figures from the US. The Nikkei is up 0.9% this morning, while the Hang Seng is looking at gains of 0.2% and the Kospi is up 0.9%. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a> <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29,567<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +18.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 49.03<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 49.17<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 49.05<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 49.15<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,850<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: -1.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,226<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: -3.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,213<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +3.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,455<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +14.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,281<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +7.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,728<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +4.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 77.35<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.23<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,486<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 58,968<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.4% (YTD: +39.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.8% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 4.7 bn (31.5% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 18.8% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Juhayna (+19.4%), Mopco (+10.3%) and Abu Qir Fertilizers (+5.0%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Elsewedy Electric (-6.2%), Eastern Company (-2.9%) and Edita (-2.5%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS- <\/p>\n

Orascom Construction will pay out a dividend of EGP<\/strong> 9.6944 per share<\/strong> on its 2023 earnings, the company said in an EGX disclosure (pdf)<\/a>. Dividends will be paid out on 21 August. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US inflation dropped to its lowest level in three years<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":639837,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,119,182,349,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-639836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a6fbb805-fa9b-4824-9a41-3de5d8b4ca18","order":"13","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/8\/1365.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Analysts are penciling in rate cuts after US inflation cools to lowest level in years","related_issue":[639813],"teaser":"US inflation dropped to its lowest level in three years","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/8\/.dc150195-5d11-4d8f-a3d1-1bbf9773f33c.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nAnalysts are penciling in rate cuts after US inflation cools to lowest level in years - 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To put that into perspective: headline inflation was at 13.5% in July 2018,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/1072.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586455,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/11\/us-inflation-slows-again-paving-the-way-to-a-fed-interest-rate-pause\/","url_meta":{"origin":639836,"position":1},"title":"US inflation slows again, paving the way to a Fed interest rate pause","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index fell to 4.9% in April","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/643.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596913,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/11\/egypts-inflation-rate-in-single-digits-for-first-time-since-march-2016-cbe-still-expected-to-hold-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":639836,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation rate in single digits for first time since March 2016, CBE still expected to hold rates","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation hits lowest levels in over three years, but mind the subsidy cuts in next month\u2019s reading: Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation rate dropped to 9.4% in June from 14.1% in May, the first time the reading has come in single digits since March 2016, the CBE said (pdf) in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/1946.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594912,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/","url_meta":{"origin":639836,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year lows in August","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year low in August, confounding expectations: Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate fell to 7.5% in August from 8.7% in July, a low not seen January 2013, official data showed yesterday. Figures released by Capmas showed that monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% last month from 1.8%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1816.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598424,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/26\/egypts-central-bank-keeps-interest-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":639836,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s central bank keeps interest rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"With one eye on inflation, the central bank leaves interest rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with analyst expectations. The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 15.75% and 16.75%, respectively, and also left\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595265,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-could-cut-interest-rates-again-this-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":639836,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt could cut interest rates again this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-150 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of eight economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the unexpected inflation rate in August, which dropped to the lowest level in six-and-a-half\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/639836","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=639836"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/639836\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/639813"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/639837"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=639836"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=639836"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=639836"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=639836"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=639836"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}