{"id":638663,"date":"2017-10-11T03:54:17","date_gmt":"2017-10-11T03:54:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/10\/11\/bnp-paribas-says-cairo-trip-reaffirms-positive-outlook-on-egyptian-economy\/"},"modified":"2017-10-11T03:54:17","modified_gmt":"2017-10-11T03:54:17","slug":"bnp-paribas-says-cairo-trip-reaffirms-positive-outlook-on-egyptian-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/10\/11\/bnp-paribas-says-cairo-trip-reaffirms-positive-outlook-on-egyptian-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"BNP Paribas says Cairo trip reaffirms positive outlook on Egyptian economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> A recent visit to Cairo by BNP Paribas reps reaffirmed the bank\u2019s \u201cpositive outlook on the Egyptian economy<\/strong>, whilst highlighted the key challenge of competitiveness in the medium term,\u201d according to trip notes sent to Enterprise (pdf)<\/a>. \u201cOngoing reforms (monetary and fiscal) have put the Egyptian economy on the right track. Nevertheless, the medium-term prospects are still challenged\u2026 The next challenges are execution of remaining reforms as well as achieving a sustained and inclusive economic growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

Economist Pascal Devaux writes that the \u201cFX market is increasingly liquid and EGP flotation has been a success by the CBE.<\/strong> The BoP is improving rapidly and overseas repatriation is progressing as well. All backlogs have been eliminated and the USD interbank market is growing. IMF objectives in terms of net international reserves (NIR) have been outperformed.\u201d Devaux points to a \u201crelative consensus that the EGP will appreciate in 2018,\u201d but, in the medium term, \u201cwe expect a gradual depreciation<\/strong> in order to preserve Egypt\u2019s external competitiveness in a context of high, albeit declining, inflation and uncertain progress in factor productivity.\u201d<\/p>\n

The trip notes suggest that, the main potential drivers of the Egyptian economy<\/strong> are in construction, low and medium-tech manufacturing, and the labour-intensive agricultural sector.<\/p>\n

Consumer demand has been impacted<\/strong>, the report notes, but food expenditures remain relatively resilient, even though consumers are now more price sensitive and cutting non-essentials.<\/p>\n

Inflation has peaked \u2014 and hit the middle-class particularly hard. <\/strong>Inflation has likely peaked in 3Q2017, BNP Paribas said, and has had \u201cthe greatest impact on mid and mid-upper income households given consumption patterns and the use of private healthcare and education services.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the macro level<\/strong>, BNP Paribas sees the risk of fiscal slippage as a result of upcoming presidential elections \u201cis less likely. But that is to be confirmed in view of the upcoming social protection measures\u2026 The two main risks to fiscal consolidation are commodity price shocks (considered to be unlikely in the coming years) and execution risk of the next rounds of reform.\u201d For the banking sector, Devaux writes that \u201ca consolidation of the banking sector is needed<\/strong> as smaller banks are not viable in the long term. However, they are not under stress to force consolidation and their risk appetite remains limited.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A recent visit to Cairo by BNP Paribas reps reaffirmed the bank\u2019s \u201cpositive outlook on the Egyptian economy, whilst highlighted the key challenge of competitiveness in the medium term,\u201d according to trip notes sent to Enterprise (pdf). \u201cOngoing reforms (monetary and fiscal) have put the Egyptian economy on the right track. Nevertheless, the medium-term prospects […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[72,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-638663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-enterpriseam","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9645815a-0fe6-49d5-b12e-a5a97d33891f","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"c4293de0-00b4-43d6-a7da-51e4eff7f54d","story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[638654],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nBNP Paribas says Cairo trip reaffirms positive outlook on Egyptian economy - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/10\/11\/bnp-paribas-says-cairo-trip-reaffirms-positive-outlook-on-egyptian-economy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BNP Paribas says Cairo trip reaffirms positive outlook on Egyptian economy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A recent visit to Cairo by BNP Paribas reps reaffirmed the bank\u2019s \u201cpositive outlook on the Egyptian economy, whilst highlighted the key challenge of competitiveness in the medium term,\u201d according to trip notes sent to Enterprise (pdf). \u201cOngoing reforms (monetary and fiscal) have put the Egyptian economy on the right track. 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The report points to economic reforms, including the EGP flotation and fiscal reforms, as moves that have triggered positive momentum. Renewed private capital inflows also \u201csignal a return of confidence\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561793,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/21\/egypts-economy-to-grow-3-1-this-fiscal-year-says-bnp-paribas\/","url_meta":{"origin":638663,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow 3.1% this fiscal year, says BNP Paribas","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow at a 3.1% clip in the government\u2019s current 2020-2021 fiscal year, down from 3.8% in the previous fiscal year, on the back of declining tourism revenues at the outset of the pandemic, BNP Paribas said in a recent economic research report (pdf). 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