{"id":638217,"date":"2024-08-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/08\/11\/the-great-unwinding\/"},"modified":"2024-08-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-08-11T00:00:00","slug":"the-great-unwinding","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/08\/11\/the-great-unwinding\/","title":{"rendered":"The great unwinding"},"content":{"rendered":"

Three-quarters of global carry trades have been reversed<\/strong>, wiping out most of their gains for the year. Recent market shifts have eroded its gains by about 10% since May \u2014 a change that suggests that investors are pulling away from this strategy, which had been profitable since the end of 2022, according to JPMorgan stategists wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links<\/strong> to our background and outside sources.)<\/p>\n

Enterprise, what is a carry trade?<\/strong> Carry trade is a strategy where investors borrow money at low interest rates in one currency and invest it in another country in local currency with higher interest rates. This can potentially yield high returns when market conditions are favorable. <\/p>\n

So what\u2019s the problem? <\/strong>The global carry trade strategy is currently \u201cnot offering an attractive risk-reward,\u201d the investment bank said. When market conditions change unexpectedly, the potential rewards may not be enough to justify the risks, especially with global events such as the US elections potentially influencing markets further.<\/p>\n

With the instability of global markets, differences in interest rates have also become less<\/strong> reliable.<\/strong> For example, changes in monetary policy on the central bank level \u2014 such as unexpected interest rate changes made by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan \u2014 influence global borrowing and lending conditions. Case in point: The historically popular JPY-USD carry trade lost its appeal to investors this week when BoJ\u2019s interest rate hike fueled an increase in the value of the JPY. <\/p>\n

Is recovery on the cards?<\/strong> While there might be a small chance for recovery in the carry trade this month, the overall strategy is currently not as appealing as it has been until recently due to heightened risks, JP Morgan analysts concur.<\/p>\n

Last week\u2019s global unwinding can also be credited in a large part to investors and macro<\/strong> funds unwinding their positions in carry trades<\/strong>, with tech stocks likely suffering the brunt due to carry trade-funded positions in the asset class, analysts told Reuters<\/a>. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a> <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28,751<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +15.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 49.21<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 49.35<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 49.20<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 49.30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,667<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: -2.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,306<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: -2.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,195<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +3.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,344<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +12.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,168<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +5.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,675<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +3.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 79.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.14<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,473.40<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 61,062<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +44.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.4% at Thursday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 3.6 bn (equal to the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 15.5% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the gree<\/strong>n: <\/strong>Elsewedy Electric (+20.0%), ADIB (+2.6%), and Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+2.2%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Madinet Masr (-2.9%), Juhayna (-2.7%), and Ezz Steel (-2.3%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recent market shifts have eroded its gains by about 10% since May<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":638218,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[2082,72,119,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-638217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-carry-trade","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f4fd49f8-3533-4d4f-94ff-bf44975ef6d5","order":"15","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/8\/791.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The great unwinding: Global investors reverse three-quarters of the year\u2019s carry trade","related_issue":[638191],"teaser":"Recent market shifts have eroded its gains by about 10% since May","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/8\/.c6a16b24-6ecb-4806-aee5-f005644667d2.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nThe great unwinding - 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The EUR is the new funding currency of choice for EM carry traders: Investors trading emerging-market currencies with borrowed EUR have seen as much as 29% gains this year as the EUR\u2019s fall against the greenback helps prop up some popular EM carry trades, Bloomberg reports. 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