{"id":635107,"date":"2024-07-24T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-24T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/07\/24\/growth-forecast-revised-down\/"},"modified":"2024-07-24T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-24T00:00:00","slug":"growth-forecast-revised-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/07\/24\/growth-forecast-revised-down\/","title":{"rendered":"Growth forecast revised down"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends. <\/strong>We are wrapping up this short work week with a brisk issue led by the latest from the Act Financial IPO. <\/p>\n

And don\u2019t forget, we\u2019re in line for a long weekend. <\/strong>The public, private, and banking sectors will have the day off tomorrow in observance of the 23 July Revolution. <\/p>\n

** EnterpriseAM Egypt will also be taking a break from your inboxes starting tomorrow<\/strong>, but we will be back in your inbox at our customary time on Sunday.<\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/p>\n

GDP WATCH-<\/p>\n

<\/a> Egypt could be looking at a 4.0% growth this fiscal year -Reuters poll: <\/strong>Economists see Egypt\u2019s GDP growing at 4.0% clip this fiscal year, according to a Reuters poll<\/a> of 17 economists. This is lower than the 4.35% forecasted in April<\/a> and the 4.15% estimated in January. \u201cThe overall net impact is that economic growth will be weaker this fiscal year,\u201d said Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston, pointing to tighter fiscal and monetary policy and a weakened EGP. <\/p>\n

\u201cThere are reasons to be more optimistic on GDP growth from FY 2025-26 onward<\/strong>,\u201d he added. Economists see growth rebounding to 4.99% in fiscal year 2025-26.<\/p>\n

Less optimistic than most: <\/strong>The forecast is slightly below the 4.1% the IMF has penciled in for the year \u2014 the fund revised our growth forecast down 0.3 percentage points last week<\/a> \u2014 and the new government\u2019s 4.2%<\/a> growth target. <\/p>\n

Other notable forecasts: <\/strong>Analysts see the EGP falling to 49.50 against the greenback by the end of the current fiscal year and 52.50 by June 2026. They also see headline inflation cooling to 20.5% by the end of FY 24-25 and 12.05 by the end of the following year and the central bank cutting rates so the overnight lending rate sits at 21.25% by June 2025 and 15.25% by June 2026. <\/p>\n

WATCH THIS SPACE- <\/p>\n

<\/a> #1- More Emirati investments ahead? <\/strong>The UAE is also looking to set up new investment projects in Egypt via various financing methods, UAE\u2019s ambassador to Egypt Mariam Al Kaabi said<\/a> during a meeting with Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk. She pointed out that Egypt has the potential to become a commercial and industrial hub covering the needs of African and European markets.<\/p>\n

#2- Efforts to improve Egypt\u2019s investment climate: <\/strong>Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Hassan El Khatib has proposed a number of measures to help improve Egypt\u2019s investment climate, facilitate procedures, and boost priority sectors. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly instructed him to present the proposed measures during the next meeting of the cabinet\u2019s Economic Ministerial Group, according to a cabinet statement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

DEBT WATCH- <\/p>\n

<\/a> CBE soaks up additional liquidity from the market: <\/strong>The Central Bank of Egypt yesterday accepted bids from 32 banks for EGP 947.1 bn in fixed-rate deposits at a rate of 27.75% during its weekly fixed-rate auction, according to data<\/a> on its website. <\/p>\n

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Get Enterprise<\/b> daily <\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n

Subscribe here<\/a> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

PSA- <\/p>\n

WEATHER- <\/strong>The heatwave continues in Cairo today, with a high of 38\u00b0C and a low of 28\u00b0C, according to our favorite weather app.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a little cooler in Alexandria<\/strong>, with a high of 35\u00b0C and a low of 25\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

FACT CHECK- No unusual activity on our Mediterranean: <\/strong>The National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics released a statement<\/a> saying that it hasn\u2019t detected any unusual seismic activity after news spread<\/a> that Egypt\u2019s Mediterranean beaches could be hit with a tsunami following a forecasted earthquake in the eastern Mediterranean basin. <\/p>\n

Still, be careful. <\/strong>Six governorates overlooking the Mediterranean \u2014 including Alexandria and Port Said \u2014 are on high alert following a \u201cnoticeable recession in seawater.\u201d <\/p>\n

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover <\/strong>Saudi Arabia<\/a><\/strong> and the <\/strong>UAE<\/a><\/strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-<\/p>\n

<\/a> Egypt-US Strategic Dialogue penciled in for September: <\/strong>Egypt will be hosting the Egypt-US Strategic Dialogue next September as part of a broader effort by the two countries to \u201cstrengthen mutual cooperation,\u201d according to a statement<\/a>. The strategic dialogue in Cairo will be followed by a meeting of the US-Egypt Joint Economic Committee in Washington.<\/p>\n

Check out our full calendar on the web<\/a><\/strong> for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.<\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- <\/p>\n

Our politics-heavy summer continues, with the presidential candidacy of Kamala Harris <\/strong>again dominating front pages<\/strong> after her debut rally saw her bash Trump \u2014 who she says is \u201cfocused on the past\u201d and would lead a country \u201cof chaos, fear, and hate\u201d \u2014 and a Reuters \/ Ipsos poll<\/a> sees her fractionally ahead of Agent Orange with voters. <\/p>\n

Harris led Trump 44% to 42%<\/strong>, while Joe Biden polled two points behind his archrival just before dropping out of the race. (The caveat: The Reuters poll has a margin of error of \u00b13%\u2026)<\/p>\n

Harris now has a shortlist of frontrunners from which to pick her running mate<\/strong>, according to Democrat donors, who say Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona senator Mark Kelly (a former Navy combat pilot and astronaut), and North Carolina governor Roy Cooper are front-runners. Possible VP candidates are being vetted by Barack Obama\u2019s former attorney-general, Eric Holder, the Financial Times<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

AND- US Senator Bob Mendnez said he would resign on 20 August<\/strong> after he was convicted on corruption charges, which included bribery and acting as a foreign agent for Egypt\u2019s government. (Reuters<\/a>)<\/p>\n

OVER IN FRANCE- French President Emmanuel Macron <\/strong>said<\/a><\/strong> he will not name a new <\/strong>government until after the Olympics are over to avoid \u201cdisorder,\u201d <\/strong>rejecting the left\u2019s pick for a prime minister, a civil servant named Lucie Castets. He said the New Popular Front does not have a majority within the National Assembly to ensure a \u201cstable government capable of action\u201d during a TV interview. <\/p>\n

AND IN GAZA- Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington, where he signaled <\/strong>that a ceasefire could be near<\/strong> as he prepares for talks with Biden (and Trump on Friday<\/a>) after making an address to Congress. Senior Hamas officials say he\u2019s still stalling, Reuters<\/a> reports. Israeli strikes have killed at least 80 people this week as tanks advanced deeper into Khan Younis.<\/p>\n

\n

IN THE BUSINESS PRESS- Earnings and AI news are getting the most ink: <\/strong><\/p>\n

#1- Tesla reported its lowest net income margin in five years<\/strong> and lower-than-expected earnings on the back of a drop in automotive sales. (CNBC<\/a> | Reuters<\/a>)<\/p>\n

#2- Google parent Alphabet beat analyst expectations<\/strong> as a rise in digital ad sales and higher demand for cloud computing boosted revenues. (Bloomberg<\/a> | Reuters<\/a>)<\/p>\n

#3- ON THE AI FRONT- Meta has <\/strong>released<\/a><\/strong> a new version of its AI model, Llama,<\/strong> that it claims rivals offerings from OpenAI and Google \u2014 with Mark Zuckerberg saying it can solve complex math problems and digest books in one go. <\/p>\n

Zuckerbeg penned a <\/strong>letter<\/a><\/strong> defending open source AI and arguing that it will \u201cmake the <\/strong>world more prosperous and safer\u201d <\/strong>and that what\u2019s more dangerous is keeping AI in the hands of a small number of companies. <\/p>\n

ALSO WORTH KNOWING- Sunday was likely the world\u2019s hottest day on record<\/strong>, according to preliminary data<\/a>. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

*** It\u2019s Hardhat day \u2014 your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt:<\/strong> Enterprise\u2019s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education. <\/p>\n

In today\u2019s issue: <\/strong>We take a look at the Madbouly cabinet\u2019s infrastructure priorities \u2014 particularly in the realms of health, housing, telecom, and digitization.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends. We are wrapping up this short work week with a brisk issue led by the latest from the Act Financial IPO. And don\u2019t forget, we\u2019re in line for a long weekend. The public, private, and banking sectors will have the day off tomorrow in observance of the 23 July Revolution. ** EnterpriseAM […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":635108,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[104,72,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-635107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8b6cf2e1-c588-4311-8c8b-299383bd8446","order":"2","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/7\/1921.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt\u2019s growth forecast revised down","related_issue":[635105],"teaser":"","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/7\/.8ff64298-9831-4b1d-977e-848f8ced8ca4.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nGrowth forecast revised down - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/07\/24\/growth-forecast-revised-down\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Growth forecast revised down\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Good morning, friends. 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Our friends at Renaissance Capital are holding their third annual Egypt Investor Conference in Cape Town on Tuesday and Wednesday.","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":627439,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/03\/what-were-tracking-this-week-5\/","url_meta":{"origin":635107,"position":1},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 June 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Apple\u2019s World Wide Developer Conference gets underway tomorrow in California with a keynote speech at 10am Pacific time (that\u2019s 7:00pm CLT tomorrow). 9to5Mac has a rundown of what you can expect. As things look now: Iterative improvements with iOS 12 as tentpole features are pushed to next year to allow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":652361,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/01\/08\/the-enterprise-ceo-poll-launches-tomorrow\/","url_meta":{"origin":635107,"position":2},"title":"The Enterprise CEO Poll launches tomorrow","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 January 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"*** Our first-ever Enterprise CEO Poll runs tomorrow through Thursday, with a dozen of the nation\u2019s top chief executive officers offering their thoughts on what to expect in 2017. The poll runs over four days, with at least three CEOs per day and will replace our industry news section for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":640795,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/09\/05\/what-were-tracking-this-week-124\/","url_meta":{"origin":635107,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 September 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The Emirates NBD PMI reading for August will be released tomorrow. You\u2019ll be able to find it here.","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":646694,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/06\/21\/what-were-tracking-this-week-170\/","url_meta":{"origin":635107,"position":4},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 June 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"President Abdel Fattah El Sisi heads to Uganda tomorrow for presidential summit of the Nile Basin Initiative countries.","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":635400,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/12\/04\/what-were-tracking-this-week-82\/","url_meta":{"origin":635107,"position":5},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 December 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Tomorrow is PMI day: The Emirates NBD \/ Markit purchasing managers\u2019 index for Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia will be out on Tuesday morning at about 6:15am. 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