{"id":634742,"date":"2018-01-23T04:18:13","date_gmt":"2018-01-23T04:18:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/01\/23\/what-were-tracking-on-23-january-2018\/"},"modified":"2018-01-23T04:18:13","modified_gmt":"2018-01-23T04:18:13","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-23-january-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/01\/23\/what-were-tracking-on-23-january-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 23 January 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

The United States has slapped Egypt and four other countries with new screening protocols for air cargo<\/strong>; we have details in this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below.<\/p>\n

In an unrelated trade development, US President Donald Trump also imposed yesterday tariffs on imported washing machines and solar panels<\/strong> in what Reuters<\/a> positioned as \u201cthe first of several potential trade restrictions.\u201d Exporters including South Korea have already pledged to contest the sanctions<\/a> on washers, which start at 20% and run as high as 50% pas the first 1.2 mn imported units.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, you can look forward to a day dominated by plenty of chatter about the macro backdrop:<\/strong><\/p>\n

The IMF will report on its second review of Egypt\u2019s economic reform program this afternoon<\/strong>. Based on statements from senior officials following the review and the board\u2019s approval of the USD 2 bn tranche, we expect to hear nothing but positivity and confidence.<\/p>\n

The IMF was also positive in its global economic forecast <\/strong>as it released the January update of its World Economic Outlook. The IMF expects global growth for 2018 and 2019 to clock in at 3.9%, an upgrade of 0.2% on the back of global output growth in 2017. \u201cThis forecast reflects the expectation that favorable global financial conditions and strong sentiment will help maintain the recent acceleration in demand, especially in investment, with a noticeable impact on growth in economies with large exports,\u201d said the report. The IMF was particularly pleased with the US\u2019 tax reform, which is expected to stimulate further growth.<\/p>\n

The aggregate growth forecast for the emerging markets and developing economies for 2018 and 2019 is unchanged<\/strong>. Growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region is expected to pick up in 2018 and 2019, but remains subdued at around 3.5% notes the IMF. You can catch the landing page of the report here<\/a>, or read the full document (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The take home message from the IMF forecast, per the Wall Street Journal<\/a>: \u201cThe world\u2019s economies are growing in rare harmony, [and] synchronized expansions tend to be self-reinforcing<\/strong> \u2014 they can have staying power.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/a> It\u2019s day one of the World Economic Forum in Davos<\/strong>. Pity the bn\u2019aires: The heaviest snowfall there in 20 years has seen the Swiss town buried in six feet of snow<\/a> (that\u2019s just under 183 cm) in the past six days. Folks are showing up late for speeches and (the horror) are having problems landing their helicopters<\/a>. The program for the gathering is here on the event\u2019s homepage<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What to expect at WEF? <\/strong>An agreement early this morning to end the shutdown of the US government<\/a> suggests The Donald may well still attend<\/strong>, so there will be the expected gnashing of teeth there. Some are predicting hand-wringing about Big Tech<\/strong> amid calls for tighter regulation of players including Google, Facebook and Amazon. And there will be the usual stuff about the brittleness of the global economic recovery<\/strong> and the future of capitalism, the Financial Times<\/a> notes in its tee-up. Also look for a flurry of reports competing for attention, Bloomberg notes<\/a> in its day-one scene setter.<\/p>\n

One of those reports is the WEF\u2019s \u201cinclusive development index,\u201d<\/strong> which rates more than 100 countries on \u201cgrowth, equity and sustainability.\u201d The list is dominated by small, wealthy European<\/strong> nations, with the top five slots going to Norway, Iceland, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Denmark. The list is split into 30 advanced economies and some 77 emerging markets.<\/p>\n

Egypt ranks #70 on the EM list<\/strong>, which is led by Lithuania, Hungary and Azerbaijan. We\u2019re one slot behind South Africa and one ahead of Zimbabwe. The landing page for the report is here<\/a> or you can go read the thing in pdf here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Speaking of EMs, Bloomberg has come out<\/strong><\/a> with its 2018 list of most (and least) attractive emerging markets.<\/strong> Mexico and Turkey appeared to top the list of the most attractive EMs, because their real effective exchange rates are more competitive than the average of the past 10 years. China and India are the least attractive on historically high valuations, and their economic growth is unlikely to be as fast as it has been in the past decade, estimates show. Don\u2019t look for Egypt in here:<\/strong> It was among the four of the 24 MSCI emerging market countries that was excluded for lacking data.<\/p>\n

In miscellany this morning:<\/p>\n