{"id":631060,"date":"2018-03-08T04:40:56","date_gmt":"2018-03-08T04:40:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/03\/08\/what-to-expect-on-the-frontier-in-2018\/"},"modified":"2018-03-08T04:40:56","modified_gmt":"2018-03-08T04:40:56","slug":"what-to-expect-on-the-frontier-in-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/03\/08\/what-to-expect-on-the-frontier-in-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"What to expect on the frontier in 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-04\"><\/a> <strong>Sentiment among international investors toward Egypt and frontier markets was strikingly positive at this year\u2019s EFG Hermes One on One.<\/strong> A striking number of Egyptian companies, in particular, having meeting schedules dominated by group meetings rather than the titular one-on-ones. To set things in perspective, we had chats with our friends Mohamed Ebeid, Co-CEO of Investment Banking at EFG Hermes, and Ali Khalpey, CEO of EFG Hermes Frontier. On Sunday, we\u2019ll have our interview with Ebeid.<\/p>\n<p>Today, Khalpey discusses who did well in 2017, the one big overhang on frontier markets this year, and how the wind-down of Africa-focused private equity funds is impacting activity across FM. Edited excerpts:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Emerging and frontier markets did very well in 2017<\/strong>, said Khalpey. We\u2019re seeing interest from asset allocators in EM and more financing dedicated to frontier managers. It\u2019s interesting, really: Global EM investors now appear to be looking for alpha in non-core markets.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Specific beneficiaries? <\/strong>Argentina and Vietnam have done very well. Egypt was a big beneficiary in 2017. We\u2019re now seeing that spill over into peripheral markets.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Valuations have now become polarized, with markets including Vietnam and Argentina looking quite expensive:<\/strong> Pakistan and Nigeria are looking very attractive on valuation. Pakistan in particular, which experienced 10% devaluation, passed people by, we may see another 5-7% devaluation there, but it\u2019s already starting to look quite attractive. In Nigeria, the Naira came down after oil slid. Since then, there\u2019s been a significant recovery in oil prices and portfolio flows on the back of the country being heavily weighted, so I\u2019m not certain there\u2019s much more scope for devaluation here now. Nigeria has seen economic growth and recovery as well as structural reforms, which has made the country a good growth story set to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Khalpey agreed with Ebeid that investors are taking predominantly a bottom-up approach when it comes to EM and FM in 2018<\/strong>, meaning they\u2019re choosing individual stocks that look compelling rather than wider industry or macro themes. Investors are playing Argentina for MSCI inclusion. The same goes for Kuwait and perhaps Saudi Arabia. Vietnam has got a very solid growth story, but again, the market is a bit expensive at the moment. In Nigeria, banks are extremely attractive. And in Pakistan, we\u2019re seeing considerable interest in names including banks and cement are interesting.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Liquidity and foreign ownership limits are challenges on the frontier: <\/strong>With some frontier markets doing a few mn US a day in turnover, liquidity is still a very significant challenge getting into and, particularly, out of markets. But really, you also need to take into account foreign ownership limits. Take Vietnam, one of the most liquid frontier markets that trades USD 300 mn a day. The foreign ownership restrictions make it a less-than-fully tradable market for foreigners. So even if investors like the story and have the liquidity, restriction on their ownership stake limits their ability to buy. So if you want to buy the best banks in Vietnam, you can\u2019t. You want to buy the best retailer, you can\u2019t. Vietnam is making a lot of progress on removing the foreign ownership caps, but it\u2019s currently on a sector by sector basis and it\u2019s a long-term plan.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The other caveat for frontiers is politics<\/strong>, considering elections in places like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Zimbabwe and one in Nigeria in 2019. EFG Hermes generally tends to ignore politics on the long term basis, but (in the short term) it will make noise and draw attention to the downsides of some markets.<\/p>\n<p><strong>There will probably be three significant IPOs in frontier markets this year<\/strong>, and EFG Hermes has one of them. It will be our first in frontier markets.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s being done to bring more names to the market in FM? <\/strong>Frontier market IPO activity will be a lot more muted than it is when you compare to a place such as Egypt. Egypt can turn the tap on aggressively and quickly to bring new listings. That said, we do have a very interesting IPO mandate in a frontier market that we hope to execute this year. Instead, we\u2019ll see activity on the frontier biased more toward M&A and other equity capital market activities. Vietnam is the one market that\u2019s an exception: It\u2019s a place where markets revalue, valuations go up, and new issuers come to the market very quickly. The only other market that can match Egypt or Vietnam in that respect is Pakistan, which has underperformed since the upgrade to MSCI emerging market status. Pakistan has been down 40% since the MSCI upgrade all the way to December. It has rebounded since, but the valuation story hasn\u2019t been appealing for issuers over there, it hasn\u2019t gotten to the point that they\u2019d be tempted to return to the market.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Look for plenty of ECM activity in Nigeria and in other frontier markets where companies suffered have been through devaluations.<\/strong> The big push will be recapitalization that has to happen, a lot debt and equity needs to be raised for companies that have had hits from the currency impact.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The winding-down of Africa-dedicated private equity funds is going to create a lot of dealflow. <\/strong>Funds such as Carlyle, ECP, Actis and Helios, who raised raise funds from 2008-2011, those funds are now coming to the end of their lifespans. Seven years is about average for the life of a PE fund. So as they come to the end of their duration, they\u2019ll need to dispose of assets. I think we\u2019re very well positioned in this respect, as the General partners are people who have been important clients of ours for 10, 15 years and more.<\/p>\n<p><strong>EFG Hermes Frontier is pushing swaps and participation notes to ease investors into frontier markets: <\/strong>We launched swap products that have enabled solid, EM-dedicated investors to transact, and we have expanded our p-note product from Saudi Arabia to all frontier markets. So now there are access products for EM investors who hasn\u2019t necessarily got a custody arrangements in place; they can now transact straight away.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sentiment among international investors toward Egypt and frontier markets was strikingly positive at this year\u2019s EFG Hermes One on One. A striking number of Egyptian companies, in particular, having meeting schedules dominated by group meetings rather than the titular one-on-ones. To set things in perspective, we had chats with our friends Mohamed Ebeid, Co-CEO of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":631061,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11966],"tags":[72,11965],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-631060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spotlight-efg-hermes-one-on-one-2018-in-dubai","tag-enterpriseam","tag-spotlight-efg-hermes-one-on-one-2018-in-dubai","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5b7c22a0-bcb3-4857-96da-0ef814ad3640","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/3\/1670.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[631042],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What to expect on the frontier in 2018 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/03\/08\/what-to-expect-on-the-frontier-in-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What to expect on the frontier in 2018\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sentiment among international investors toward Egypt and frontier markets was strikingly positive at this year\u2019s EFG Hermes One on One. 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The EFG Hermes subsidiary was also named the third-best brokerage for research, sales, corporate access, and execution in the poll, in which 5.7k representatives\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Kudos&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Kudos","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/newsmakers\/kudos\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":652240,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/01\/04\/efg-accelerates-expansion-of-frontier-markets-drive-appoints-khalpey-to-head-division\/","url_meta":{"origin":631060,"position":4},"title":"EFG accelerates expansion of frontier markets drive, appoints Khalpey to head division","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 January 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"In frontier market push, EFG Hermes taps Exotix Africa co-founder Khalpey to lead EFG Hermes Frontier. EFG Hermes appointed Ali Khalpey to head EFG Hermes Frontier. Khalpey co-founded Exotix Africa LLP and has experience with Blackrock, Investec, and Renaissance Capital. His appointment comes as EFG looks to accelerate its drive\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574076,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/30\/efg-hermes-gb-capital-close-acquisition-of-majority-stake-in-tokio-marines-egypt-arm\/","url_meta":{"origin":631060,"position":5},"title":"EFG Hermes, GB Capital close acquisition of majority stake in Tokio Marine\u2019s Egypt arm","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"M&A WATCH- EFG Hermes and GB Capital have closed their acquisition of 75% of Tokio Marine Egypt Family Takaful, the two companies said in a press release (pdf). The EGP 84.75 mn transaction gives each of EFG Finance and GB Capital a 37.5% stake in the life insurance company. Tokio\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/234.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/631060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=631060"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/631060\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/631042"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/631061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=631060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=631060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=631060"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=631060"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=631060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}