{"id":630501,"date":"2018-04-23T04:26:24","date_gmt":"2018-04-23T04:26:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/04\/23\/egypt-100-mn-and-ready-for-take-off\/"},"modified":"2018-04-23T04:26:24","modified_gmt":"2018-04-23T04:26:24","slug":"egypt-100-mn-and-ready-for-take-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/04\/23\/egypt-100-mn-and-ready-for-take-off\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt: 100 mn and ready for take-off"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> In exclusive commentary for Enterprise,<\/i><\/strong> Charles Robertson, chief global economist at Renaissance Capital, argues that Egypt will become a destination for low- and medium-weight manufacturing plants <\/strong>that in the 1990s were built in Central Europe and Romania. <\/i><\/p>\n

In two years, there will be 100 mn Egyptians, better educated than ever before, with competitive wages, able to access decent electricity supply and ready to industrialize.<\/strong> There are two theories that tell us Egypt is poised to industrialize and become one of the world\u2019s long-term beneficiaries of Europe\u2019s economic recovery. Egypt clearly crossed the 70% adult literacy level that we at Renaissance Capital believe is a precondition for industrialization in 2010; literacy reached 76% in 2015.<\/p>\n

For the first time, the country is capable of sustaining a manufacturing sector that is above 20% of GDP <\/strong>and unlike many in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), it has the electricity and infrastructure already in place to support that. Meanwhile, as central European wages soar due to economic recovery and a shrinking workforce, Egypt\u2019s minimum wage is now one-eighth of the level in Turkey, one-quarter of that in Morocco and half of the level in Tunisia. Egypt is the only major economy on Europe\u2019s periphery with both a fast-growing workforce and where fewer than 50% of adults have a job. We think Egypt can grow its workforce by over 50% through its increasingly educated female population (over 80% of 11-17-year-old females now attend secondary school), and because the overall workforce is set to rise by 9% (an extra 6mn adults) between 2015 and 2020.<\/p>\n

Never before has Egypt been so well placed to benefit from growth in Europe.<\/strong> To our pleasant surprise, Vision 2030, the government\u2019s plan for Egypt\u2019s economic development, has some goals that are achievable. Growth at the bottom end of the 8-10% target range for 2020 is plausible in the 2020s if our theories on literacy and industrialization, and MENA vs. CE3 are correct.<\/p>\n

To take advantage of this opportunity Egypt does not have much room to make mistakes.<\/strong> Government debt reached 103% of GDP in June 2017, the budget deficit is expected likely to be 9.2% of GDP, as of June 2018, there is double-digit inflation and the current account deficit is around 4-5% of GDP. However, the direction remains very positive. Inflation has already more than halved since the post-devaluation peak of 33% to 13% in March 2018. This is a considerably better record than Frontier favourite Argentina.<\/p>\n

We agree with the IMF that inflation will fall to around 11-12% in June.<\/strong> The budget is expected to show a healthy primary surplus in 2018-2019 (perhaps already in 2017-2018), helped by growth accelerating towards 6%, a figure we, the IMF and the government all agree on. We think the currency at EGP 17-18 per USD is 15% cheap vs. long-term fair value (EGP 15 per USD) and still offers value to foreign portfolio investors buying five-year government bonds in Egyptian pounds at pre-tax yields of 14%. The IMF expects public debt to fall to 72% of GDP by June 2022, and we think Egypt will receive at least one sovereign rating upgrade this year (it deserves two).<\/p>\n

Egypt is very committed to a reform effort<\/strong>, which via subsidy removals in fuel and electricity might keep inflation at around 11-12% from June 2018 to June 2020, and this fiscal effort should allow a re-allocation of government spending towards infrastructure and investment. We think maintaining a cheap or fairly valued currency would support industrialization.<\/p>\n

What we expect to see in 2019 and beyond is a rise in manufacturing investment.<\/strong> Today, the focus of foreign direct investment is the revitalized oil and gas sector, where Egypt should soon become self-sufficient again. But once it is obvious that macro stability has been restored, and when demand in Europe has eroded southern Europe\u2019s spare capacity, we think Egypt should start attracting the low- and mid-level manufacturing plants that in the 1990s were built in central Europe and Romania.<\/p>\n

Security concerns, if they are recognized to be largely regional, need not prevent this.<\/strong> We think that maintaining a fairly valued or cheap currency, sticking to current fiscal plans, improving the business environment and focusing on long-term needs of education and investment will be the key requirements for Egypt to lift GDP growth from 5-6% to 6-8% in the 2020s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In exclusive commentary for Enterprise, Charles Robertson, chief global economist at Renaissance Capital, argues that Egypt will become a destination for low- and medium-weight manufacturing plants that in the 1990s were built in Central Europe and Romania. In two years, there will be 100 mn Egyptians, better educated than ever before, with competitive wages, able […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":630502,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7279],"tags":[72],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-630501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spotlight","tag-enterpriseam","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d99e8786-8c51-4ae2-8dab-032dc3511d17","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/4\/1497.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[630494],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt: 100 mn and ready for take-off - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/04\/23\/egypt-100-mn-and-ready-for-take-off\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt: 100 mn and ready for take-off\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In exclusive commentary for Enterprise, Charles Robertson, chief global economist at Renaissance Capital, argues that Egypt will become a destination for low- and medium-weight manufacturing plants that in the 1990s were built in Central Europe and Romania. 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In a report issued\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/70.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":602727,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/04\/04\/egypt-is-the-most-attractive-reform-story-among-eemea-countries-renaissance-capital\/","url_meta":{"origin":630501,"position":1},"title":"Egypt is the \u201cmost attractive reform story\u201d among EEMEA countries: Renaissance Capital","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- Egypt is the \u201cmost attractive reform story\u201d among EEMEA countries- Renaissance Capital: Improving macroeconomic indicators and stabilizing public finances mean that Egypt is now the \u201cmost attractive reform story\u201d among EEMEA countries, Charlie Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, tells Enterprise. 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Research from the McKinsey Global Institute suggests that new trends in production (more automation,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/2\/2892.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567510,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/26\/rencap-sees-egypt-morocco-leading-industrialization-based-growth-in-mena\/","url_meta":{"origin":630501,"position":3},"title":"RenCap sees Egypt, Morocco leading industrialization-based growth in MENA","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"RenCap sees Egypt, Morocco leading industrialization-based growth in MENA: Egypt and Morocco are seeing \u201cpromising changes\u201d that should help improve the overall picture for MENA countries\u2019 economic competitiveness, Renaissance Capital Chairman Christopher Charlier said at RenCap\u2019s annual MENA Investors Conference, according to an emailed statement (pdf). Morocco is expected to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563480,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/05\/egypt-to-weigh-in-on-rebuilding-iraqs-manufacturing-sector\/","url_meta":{"origin":630501,"position":4},"title":"Egypt to weigh in on rebuilding Iraq\u2019s manufacturing sector","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 July 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt and Iraq are stepping up cooperation in manufacturing projects in a plan that will see Egyptian companies work on rehabilitating factories in Iraq and setting up industrial zones, the Trade and Industry Ministry said following a meeting between minister Nevine Gamea and her Iraqi counterpart, Manhal Aziz Al Khabbaz,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Diplomacy"","block_context":{"text":"Diplomacy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/regulation\/diplomacy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/7\/31.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565416,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/07\/retail-subscription-is-on-for-macro-group-ipo\/","url_meta":{"origin":630501,"position":5},"title":"Retail subscription is on for Macro Group IPO","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Retail investors who want shares of Macro Group's IPO on the Egyptian Exchange can start placing their orders as of this Sunday, 11 April, after the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) approved the company\u2019s prospectus yesterday, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX. Would-be shareholders will have until next Thursday,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: IPO WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: IPO WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-ipo-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/364.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/630501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=630501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/630501\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/630494"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/630502"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=630501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=630501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=630501"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=630501"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=630501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}