{"id":628877,"date":"2018-05-16T04:12:02","date_gmt":"2018-05-16T04:12:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/05\/16\/what-were-tracking-on-16-may-2018\/"},"modified":"2018-05-16T04:12:02","modified_gmt":"2018-05-16T04:12:02","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-16-may-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/05\/16\/what-were-tracking-on-16-may-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 16 May 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday,<\/strong> nine of 11 economists polled by Reuters said yesterday<\/a>. \u201cWe expect rates to remain on hold given a slightly elevated inflation reading in April, and more importantly, given the sharp increase in global oil prices,\u201d EFG Hermes lead economist Mohamed Abu Basha said. Initial data from the CBE on April inflation figures showed the annual headline inflation rate dropping to 13.1% from 13.3% in March, while core inflation was up fractionally to 11.62% from 11.59%. Detailed inflation figures were due out yesterday. The MPC will also be mulling the likely trajectory of interest rates in the United States, CBE Governor Tarek Amer had said earlier this week<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Fitch takes Moody\u2019s EM debt warning a step further, saying fundamentals don\u2019t matter:<\/strong> Having strong fundamentals does not shield emerging markets from the impact of a stronger USD, the global head of Fitch Ratings\u2019 sovereign ratings, James McCormack, writes for the FT<\/a>. \u201cA stronger [USD] has been associated with lower sovereign ratings, and vice versa, and turning points have been aligned,\u201d he says. \u201cIn fact, exchange rates vs. the USD are very much at the centre of EM fundamentals and will be for as long as the USD is the first choice for EM foreign currency borrowing, the numeraire currency in commodity markets, the leading reserve currency and its exchange rate a prime motivator for EM central bank interventions.\u201d As we noted yesterday<\/a>, Moody\u2019s had warned that emerging markets can weather a slight shift in exchange rates and interest rates, but would see major fiscal imbalances if these shifts were severe. It placed Egypt and six other countries on its list of high-risk EM sovereigns<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency index closed in on its biggest single-day drop <\/strong>in trading in a year and its lowest since last December on Tuesday, according to the FT<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But wait: A debate is apparently raging within the Federal Reserve on how far interest rates should rise.<\/strong> San Francisco Fed President John Williams is of the view that the Fed only has a few more rate hikes to go as the long term drivers of US economic growth support a neutral rate. He called bond-buying an important part of the policy-easing tools that the Fed \u201cis going to have to turn to\u201d to fight future downturns, Reuters reports<\/a>. This starkly differs from a more optimistic Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles, who believes that there\u2019s a bit more room to raise rates without putting the brakes on the economy.<\/p>\n

Breakthrough on GERD? <\/strong>The next round of talks on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which kicked off yesterday, \u201cended successfully,\u201d according to a tweet this morning<\/a> by Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ahmed Abou Zaid. The tweet, which leaves little by way of detail, said that the foreign ministers of both countries are expected to sign a declaration of the meeting\u2019s outcomes later as Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and General Intelligence Directorate head Abbas Kamel met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa, where Ahmed reaffirmed country\u2019s commitment to strengthening relations, according to Abou Zaid<\/a>.<\/p>\n

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is hosting his fifth National Youth Conference today,<\/strong> Al Ahram reports<\/a>. No details were provided on the location of today\u2019s edition. Organizers have set up a website<\/a> for citizens to submit questions to which El Sisi will respond during the gathering.<\/p>\n

The House of Representatives\u2019 general assembly is now in recess until 3 June<\/strong>, Ahram Gate reports<\/a>. We believe House committees will still meet during the recess to discuss pressing legislation, including the FY2018-19 state budget.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, nine of 11 economists polled by Reuters said yesterday. \u201cWe expect rates to remain on hold given a slightly elevated inflation reading in April, and more importantly, given the sharp increase in global oil prices,\u201d EFG […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[72,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-628877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9f8b8495-d364-4afc-9163-fdb55020d26b","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[628875],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhat we\u2019re tracking on 16 May 2018 - 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And in advance of that: Headline inflation drops, core inflation up fractionally in April. Annual headline inflation rates dropped to 13.1% in April from 13.3% the month before, the central bank announced yesterday. Core inflation for the month inchedwas up fractionally at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/5\/2978.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569906,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/11\/inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump\/","url_meta":{"origin":628877,"position":2},"title":"Inflation slows to 5.3% in February, but will covid-19 give it a bump?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation fell in February following three months of back-to-back acceleration, according to Capmas figures out yesterday. The reading came in at 5.3%, down from 7.2% in January. On a monthly basis, prices remained constant after having risen 0.7% in January. Once again, food prices were primarily responsible: Food\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/132.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":588365,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/11\/inflation-returns-to-acceleration-in-may\/","url_meta":{"origin":628877,"position":3},"title":"Inflation returns to acceleration in May","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Food and beverage inflation rose to 60% y-o-y","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/486.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598209,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/19\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-maintain-rates-despite-drop-in-april-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":628877,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to maintain rates despite drop in April inflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- CBE to leave key interest rates on hold this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely leave key interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, according to all 12 economists polled by Enterprise. Respondents cited the likely impact on inflation of upcoming\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569151,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/16\/enterprise-poll-analysts-divided-over-which-way-the-cbe-will-go-with-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":628877,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Analysts divided over which way the CBE will go with interest rates","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Analysts are split down the middle on whether the Central Bank of Egypt will resume its easing cycle when it meets on Thursday. Six out of 12 economists we polled last week expect the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut rates by 50-100 bps and five forecast\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/199.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/628877","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=628877"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/628877\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/628875"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=628877"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=628877"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=628877"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=628877"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=628877"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}