{"id":627856,"date":"2018-06-13T04:25:48","date_gmt":"2018-06-13T04:25:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/13\/rising-oil-prices-could-push-political-tension-in-ems-to-their-boiling-point\/"},"modified":"2018-06-13T04:25:48","modified_gmt":"2018-06-13T04:25:48","slug":"rising-oil-prices-could-push-political-tension-in-ems-to-their-boiling-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/13\/rising-oil-prices-could-push-political-tension-in-ems-to-their-boiling-point\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising oil prices could push political tension in EMs to their boiling point"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Rising oil prices could drive political tensions in emerging markets to a boiling point<\/strong>, Steve Johnson <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5eedc07a-6998-11e8-8cf3-0c230fa67aec\">writes for the FT<\/a>. Higher fuel prices have already led to mass protests in Brazil, Jordan, and Morocco, and analysts see other emerging markets such as Argentina, Turkey, and Mexico as particularly susceptible to the same scenario unfolding. These countries are already facing several challenges, including a potential reversal of capital flows, a \u201c\u2018sharp\u2019 deterioration in their terms of trade,\u201d and a strengthening USD that has made EMs less attractive. \u201cAcross EM oil importers as a whole, inflation would be 0.7 percentage points higher on average between 2018 and 2020, than under Oxford Economics\u2019 baseline forecast of USD 85-a-barrel oil. Economic output would be 0.7 percentage points lower.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>The prognosis:<\/strong> Oil-importing EMs will likely be forced to tighten their monetary policy to counteract weak economic growth. Central bank interest rates in all EMs except China are expected to rise to an average of 6.86% by March 2019, up from 6.34% currently. Developed countries with advanced economies, meanwhile, would probably only be \u201cmodestly\u201d impacted by the rising prices, which means these countries will be able to maintain a loose monetary policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rising oil prices could drive political tensions in emerging markets to a boiling point, Steve Johnson writes for the FT. Higher fuel prices have already led to mass protests in Brazil, Jordan, and Morocco, and analysts see other emerging markets such as Argentina, Turkey, and Mexico as particularly susceptible to the same scenario unfolding. These [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":627857,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[72,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-627856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-enterpriseam","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7f3d0cb2-e86b-495a-b34a-6502ed4ebad1","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/6\/753.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[627836],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rising oil prices could push political tension in EMs to their boiling point - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/13\/rising-oil-prices-could-push-political-tension-in-ems-to-their-boiling-point\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rising oil prices could push political tension in EMs to their boiling point\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Rising oil prices could drive political tensions in emerging markets to a boiling point, Steve Johnson writes for the FT. Higher fuel prices have already led to mass protests in Brazil, Jordan, and Morocco, and analysts see other emerging markets such as Argentina, Turkey, and Mexico as particularly susceptible to the same scenario unfolding. These [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/13\/rising-oil-prices-could-push-political-tension-in-ems-to-their-boiling-point\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-06-13T04:25:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/6\/753.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/13\/rising-oil-prices-could-push-political-tension-in-ems-to-their-boiling-point\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/13\/rising-oil-prices-could-push-political-tension-in-ems-to-their-boiling-point\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Rising oil prices could push political tension in EMs to their boiling point\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-06-13T04:25:48+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/13\/rising-oil-prices-could-push-political-tension-in-ems-to-their-boiling-point\/\"},\"wordCount\":202,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/13\/rising-oil-prices-could-push-political-tension-in-ems-to-their-boiling-point\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/6\/753.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"EnterpriseAM\",\"THE MACRO PICTURE\"],\"articleSection\":[\"THE MACRO PICTURE\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/13\/rising-oil-prices-could-push-political-tension-in-ems-to-their-boiling-point\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/06\/13\/rising-oil-prices-could-push-political-tension-in-ems-to-their-boiling-point\/\",\"name\":\"Rising oil prices could push political tension in EMs to their boiling point - 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Developing countries are facing a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/16.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570177,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/22\/em-economies-are-under-stress-as-investors-dump-debt-flock-to-rising-usd\/","url_meta":{"origin":627856,"position":1},"title":"EM economies are under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EM economies under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD: Emerging market debt and equity outflows have hit USD 78 bn in the two months since the start of the covid-19 crisis in January, with investors rushing to snap up cash as a safe haven asset, Jonathan Wheatley\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/249.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597046,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/15\/does-currency-devaluation-actually-increase-exports-in-emerging-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":627856,"position":2},"title":"Does currency devaluation actually increase exports in emerging markets?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Currency devaluation increases exports, right? Not always. The depreciation of emerging-market currencies may actually result in falling exports, research by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and the FT suggests. Conventional wisdom tells us that a weakening currency makes exporters more competitive in the international market, causing an increase in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/7\/980.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571453,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/12\/ems-turn-to-local-debt-markets-burn-through-fx-reserves-to-weather-the-covid-storm\/","url_meta":{"origin":627856,"position":3},"title":"EMs turn to local debt markets, burn through FX reserves to weather the covid storm","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EMs turn to local debt markets, burn through FX reserves to weather the covid storm: Emerging markets are (kind of unexpectedly) not being beaten to a pulp by the current economic crisis \u2014 thanks in large part to their local debt markets, Ashmore global head of research Jan Dehn said\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/124.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":551678,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/06\/enterprise-explains-stagflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":627856,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise Explains: Stagflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 July 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"What is stagflation, and what could it look like in the 2020s? Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated the slowdown in global economic recovery, as well as disruptions in the global supply chain, both of which the world has already been coping with since the onset of the covid-19 pandemic.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/364.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594326,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/usd-debt-exposure-an-achilles-heel-for-ems-right-now-fitch-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":627856,"position":5},"title":"USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says: Of all the macro issues emerging markets have to worry about, the biggest concern for them at the current moment is their exposure to USD-denominated external debt as the USD strengthens, Fitch Solutions\u2019 Michael Larson said in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/2055.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/627856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=627856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/627856\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/627836"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/627857"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=627856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=627856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=627856"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=627856"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=627856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}