{"id":627289,"date":"2018-07-29T04:12:33","date_gmt":"2018-07-29T04:12:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/29\/a-word-from-the-bears\/"},"modified":"2018-07-29T04:12:33","modified_gmt":"2018-07-29T04:12:33","slug":"a-word-from-the-bears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/29\/a-word-from-the-bears\/","title":{"rendered":"A word from the bears:"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>A word from the bears: <\/strong>Emerging market bears are not going to sit back and not rain on this optimistic parade. <u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/ec93ba1e-8e6a-11e8-b639-7680cedcc421\">Analysts speaking to the FT<\/a><\/u> are not buying it, saying that the speculation underpinning EMs currently boils down to one fundamental risk: Buyers of EM debt are lending for longer periods of time just as the credit ratings of the issuers is declining. EM governments were able to issue USD 129 bn in bonds in 1H2018, while the average rating of the new debt fell towards the lowest level since at least 2002, according to data from Fundamental Intelligence (FI). The average duration of sovereign EM bonds issued in 2018 has jumped to 17.2 years, up from just 10.7 years in 2017.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why have investors bought into this \u201crisky\u201d trend?<\/strong> The issuance of 30-year duration bonds by mostly African EMs and for the first time had enticed investors hungry for yields. These investors are now hurting from the capital losses resulting from political risk, interest rate hikes and currency dynamics. These factors \u201ctend to have a very temporary impact,\u201d says said David Spegel of FI.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The real danger?<\/strong> Historically the first-time issuer market has a \u201cvery high risk\u201d associated with it, with a near-15% default rate in the first four years alone. It is long-term risks that threatens the speculative bubble, says Spegel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A word from the bears: Emerging market bears are not going to sit back and not rain on this optimistic parade. Analysts speaking to the FT are not buying it, saying that the speculation underpinning EMs currently boils down to one fundamental risk: Buyers of EM debt are lending for longer periods of time just [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":627290,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[72,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-627289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e73b52c9-92fc-411d-9add-201ab62dfc3f","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"7bae6415-448e-4ba2-8564-0286dca2b29e","story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/7\/249.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[627284],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A word from the bears: - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/29\/a-word-from-the-bears\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A word from the bears:\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A word from the bears: Emerging market bears are not going to sit back and not rain on this optimistic parade. 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Some of the the key highlights include, FX reserves have fallen, A new capital gains tax on corporations is upon\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554297,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/28\/it-was-a-terrible-horrible-no-good-year-for-bonds-except-for-ems\/","url_meta":{"origin":627289,"position":1},"title":"It was a terrible, horrible, no good year for bonds (except for EMs)","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"2021 looks set to register the worst year for the global bond market since 1999, the Financial Times reports. Barclays global bond index, which tracks USD 68 tn worth of corporate and sovereign bonds, has delivered a negative return of 4.8% for the year so far as investors flee government\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;PLANET FINANCE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571453,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/12\/ems-turn-to-local-debt-markets-burn-through-fx-reserves-to-weather-the-covid-storm\/","url_meta":{"origin":627289,"position":2},"title":"EMs turn to local debt markets, burn through FX reserves to weather the covid storm","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EMs turn to local debt markets, burn through FX reserves to weather the covid storm: Emerging markets are (kind of unexpectedly) not being beaten to a pulp by the current economic crisis \u2014 thanks in large part to their local debt markets, Ashmore global head of research Jan Dehn said\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/124.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564451,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/07\/were-happy-when-ems-score-usd-53-5-bn-in-a-month\/","url_meta":{"origin":627289,"position":3},"title":"We\u2019re happy when EMs score USD 53.5 bn in a month","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets posted their tenth consecutive month of positive net portfolio inflows, a sign that EMs are in favor with global investors, according to the Institute of International Finance\u2019s (IIF) monthly capital flows tracker picked up by Reuters. EM stocks and bonds attracted some USD 53.5 bn of net inflows\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Macro picture&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/415.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570177,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/22\/em-economies-are-under-stress-as-investors-dump-debt-flock-to-rising-usd\/","url_meta":{"origin":627289,"position":4},"title":"EM economies are under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EM economies under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD: Emerging market debt and equity outflows have hit USD 78 bn in the two months since the start of the covid-19 crisis in January, with investors rushing to snap up cash as a safe haven asset, Jonathan Wheatley\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/249.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544803,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/22\/this-morning-more-measures-to-support-the-egx-coming-today-ukraine-war-is-putting-pressure-on-emerging-debt\/","url_meta":{"origin":627289,"position":5},"title":"THIS MORNING: More measures to support the EGX coming today + Ukraine war is putting pressure on emerging debt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to a new reality. We\u2019ve been saying for some weeks now that the Madbouly government has been deft in its management of the fallout from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, but policymakers took it to 11 yesterday: The Central Bank of Egypt announced a surprise\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/627289","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=627289"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/627289\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/627284"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/627290"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=627289"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=627289"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=627289"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=627289"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=627289"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}