{"id":627186,"date":"2018-07-25T04:06:55","date_gmt":"2018-07-25T04:06:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/25\/em-investors-are-still-not-entirely-convinced-with-the-recent-rebound-in-government-bonds\/"},"modified":"2018-07-25T04:06:55","modified_gmt":"2018-07-25T04:06:55","slug":"em-investors-are-still-not-entirely-convinced-with-the-recent-rebound-in-government-bonds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/25\/em-investors-are-still-not-entirely-convinced-with-the-recent-rebound-in-government-bonds\/","title":{"rendered":"EM investors are still not entirely convinced with the recent rebound in government bonds"},"content":{"rendered":"

EM investors are still not entirely convinced with the recent rebound in government bonds so far into the second half of the year, <\/strong>Matt Wirz writes for the Wall Street Journal<\/a>. That is despite the fact that debt mutual funds in emerging markets saw inflows of some USD 100 mn last week from individual investors and that USD-denominated bond prices are rising, \u201cshowing the appeal of high-yielding bonds issued by nations including Argentina, Egypt and Brazil,\u201d<\/strong> he says.<\/p>\n

The concerns are still the same: <\/strong>A strengthening USD, rising US interest rates and yields, and a potential trade war between the US and China, which raises questions \u201cabout debt sustainability and economic resilience in countries whose debt-servicing capacity stands to decline as local currencies depreciate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ranks of EM Nostradamii grow in tandem with debt default fears: <\/strong>Default rates on emerging market debt are expected to climb next year as the ending of a decade of easy money by central banks hits weaker companies the most, said Abdel Kadir Hussain, the head of fixed income at Arqaam Capital. He even goes so far as to compare it to the 1997 Asian crisis. \u201cGiven the relatively loose liquidity in the market over the last five years, you\u2019ve had a lot of [transactions] financed that maybe in more disciplined markets would not have been financed,\u201d said Hussain. \u201cIn 2019 and probably into 2020, you\u2019re going to see default rates pick up in emerging markets, particularly in the weaker part of the spectrum.\u201d<\/p>\n

How big is the hole?<\/strong> Governments and companies in developing nations sold USD 1.1 tn of bonds so far this year, after raising a record of almost USD 2 tn in all of 2017, according to data compiled by Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

How have EMs dealt with the dilemma of oil prices?<\/strong> Calling all oil analysts. Bloomberg has<\/a> a survey of analysts out comparing the policies different emerging markets have taken to adapt to higher oil prices in the midst of a strengthening USD. And it all boils down to this one dilemma: Subsidize the purchase of increasingly expensive fuel, or allow consumption to be eroded and accept the accompanying economic and political risk.<\/p>\n

For Egypt,<\/strong> \u201cthe decision to further reduce energy subsidies is \u201cbearish for fuels demand,\u201d <\/strong>says BMI analyst Richard Taylor.The move has led to lower-income, marginal fuel consumers being priced out, particularly with higher inflation ensuring consumers prioritize essential goods, he added.<\/p>\n

<\/a> Great MbS purge is Saudi\u2019s loss and our gain:<\/strong> Wealthy Saudi families are hesitant about investing in the kingdom and are instead looking to move their assets abroad after the kingdom\u2019s \u201canti-corruption purge,\u201d the Financial Times says<\/a>. Many are sitting on their wealth as money transactions are being closely monitored by the government, while others are trying to find ways to circumvent the system.<\/p>\n

So, where are they putting their cash? Investments in Egypt<\/strong>, among other \u201cfriendly third countries.\u201d In the meantime, the kingdom is hopeful that foreign investors will spur economic growth that has been sluggish as a result of \u201ca prolonged period of low oil prices\u201d and the uncertainty caused by the corruption purge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EM investors are still not entirely convinced with the recent rebound in government bonds so far into the second half of the year, Matt Wirz writes for the Wall Street Journal. That is despite the fact that debt mutual funds in emerging markets saw inflows of some USD 100 mn last week from individual investors […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":627187,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[72,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-627186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e2046080-2f31-4434-8304-fba47a78654b","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"c4b9f867-0d48-49d0-823e-b2f8dd3e6be2","story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/7\/180.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[627183],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEM investors are still not entirely convinced with the recent rebound in government bonds - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/25\/em-investors-are-still-not-entirely-convinced-with-the-recent-rebound-in-government-bonds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EM investors are still not entirely convinced with the recent rebound in government bonds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"EM investors are still not entirely convinced with the recent rebound in government bonds so far into the second half of the year, Matt Wirz writes for the Wall Street Journal. 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EGP 350 bn) as of the end of May from USD 20.9 bn (EGP 327 bn) in April, according to central bank\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "DEBT WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"DEBT WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/debt-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/378.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570177,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/22\/em-economies-are-under-stress-as-investors-dump-debt-flock-to-rising-usd\/","url_meta":{"origin":627186,"position":1},"title":"EM economies are under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EM economies under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD: Emerging market debt and equity outflows have hit USD 78 bn in the two months since the start of the covid-19 crisis in January, with investors rushing to snap up cash as a safe haven asset, Jonathan Wheatley\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/249.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":627289,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/29\/a-word-from-the-bears\/","url_meta":{"origin":627186,"position":2},"title":"A word from the bears:","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 July 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"A word from the bears: Emerging market bears are not going to sit back and not rain on this optimistic parade. Analysts speaking to the FT are not buying it, saying that the speculation underpinning EMs currently boils down to one fundamental risk: Buyers of EM debt are lending for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/7\/249.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":630590,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/04\/26\/egyptian-debt-is-still-a-safe-bet-for-investors\/","url_meta":{"origin":627186,"position":3},"title":"Egyptian debt is still a safe bet for investors","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 April 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt still attractive to the carry trade. Although rising US interest rates and global acknowledgement of credit risk from government bonds undermines slightly the competitive advantage of emerging markets, there is a view that the gap is still \u201cmeaningful enough\u201d to indicate that EMs will do just fine this year.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/4\/1003.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":622758,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/10\/11\/in-their-own-words-maait-kouchouk-discuss-debt-control-tax-reform-bonds-with-investors\/","url_meta":{"origin":627186,"position":4},"title":"In their own words \u2014 Maait, Kouchouk discuss debt control, tax reform, bonds with investors","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"** #1 EXCLUSIVE- In their own words: Maait, Kouchouk discuss debt control, tax reform, bonds with investors. We had exclusive access yesterday to an EFG Hermes investor call during which Finance Minister Mohamed Maait and Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk spoke on everything from debt control to tax reform\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":632696,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/02\/18\/nigeria-closes-bond-issuance-after-egypt-re-opens-market-for-em-debt\/","url_meta":{"origin":627186,"position":5},"title":"Nigeria closes bond issuance after Egypt re-opens market for EM debt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 February 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"You\u2019re welcome, Nigeria: Nigeria sold USD 2.5 bn in eurobonds on Thursday as it sought to lower funding costs by using the notes to refinance higher-yielding naira debt, Bloomberg reports. Nigeria issued USD 1.25 bn of 12-year bonds with a yield of 7.14 % and a separate 20-year tranche, also\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/627186","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=627186"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/627186\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/627183"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/627187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=627186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=627186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=627186"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=627186"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=627186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}