{"id":626561,"date":"2018-07-05T04:02:14","date_gmt":"2018-07-05T04:02:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/05\/fitchs-bmi-research-sees-monetary-easing-cycle-continuing-this-year\/"},"modified":"2018-07-05T04:02:14","modified_gmt":"2018-07-05T04:02:14","slug":"fitchs-bmi-research-sees-monetary-easing-cycle-continuing-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/05\/fitchs-bmi-research-sees-monetary-easing-cycle-continuing-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch\u2019s BMI Research sees monetary easing cycle continuing this year"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Fitch\u2019s BMI Research sees monetary easing cycle continuing this year: <\/strong>Fitch Group\u2019s BMI Research expects the CBE to resume the monetary easing in the next two quarters, as it looks to boost private sector growth, the firm said in its North Africa report. The easing will take place gradually, as the CBE must also weigh the inflationary impact of last month\u2019s subsidy cuts to fuel, electricity and water. BMI Research forecasts that inflation growth will average 15.2% y-o-y in 2018 and 12.1% in 2019. The central bank must also take care not to drive away foreign portfolio inflows lured by the attractive interest rates. As such, the firm expects the CBE to cut interest rates by a further 200 bps in 2018 and another 300 bps in 2019.<\/p>\n

BMI also sees Egypt\u2019s successful macro fundamentals story as underpinning continued portfolio inflows in the short term. <\/strong>\u201cStrengthening confidence in the Egyptian economy and still attractive real interest rates are likely to drive a modest appreciation of the pound in the near term,\u201d the firm said. \u201cBeyond 2018, monetary easing is likely to fuel a very gradual depreciation as less attractive real interest rates in an environment of monetary policy normalisation across developed markets weigh on the exchange rate,\u201d the report added.<\/p>\n

Inflation and oil prices are our biggest risk factors:<\/strong> The biggest risks to these gains are any larger than expected inflation numbers resulting from the subsidy cuts, in addition to rising oil prices, the report noted.<\/p>\n

BMI projects that Egypt\u2019s real GDP growth for 2018 will come in at 4.8%<\/strong>, far lower than the government, IMF and World Bank\u2019s expectations. It even forecasts that GDP growth will slip in 2019 and 2020 to 4.7% and 4.3% respectively.<\/p>\n

On the regional level, we\u2019re not the only ones straining under the weight of higher oil prices<\/strong>, which have raised the risk profile of North African nations. Morocco and Tunisia appear to hold the biggest economic and political risks in the region. The report sees Brent crude prices averaging USD 73\/bbl in 2018, rising to USD 77\/bbl in 2019.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fitch\u2019s BMI Research sees monetary easing cycle continuing this year: Fitch Group\u2019s BMI Research expects the CBE to resume the monetary easing in the next two quarters, as it looks to boost private sector growth, the firm said in its North Africa report. The easing will take place gradually, as the CBE must also weigh […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[72,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-626561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-enterpriseam","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"97da69c8-123c-41ef-a1d3-4b45750d5918","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"a3795e0a-f49a-47e2-8dea-97c6fac91b20","story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[626551],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nFitch\u2019s BMI Research sees monetary easing cycle continuing this year - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/05\/fitchs-bmi-research-sees-monetary-easing-cycle-continuing-this-year\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fitch\u2019s BMI Research sees monetary easing cycle continuing this year\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Fitch\u2019s BMI Research sees monetary easing cycle continuing this year: Fitch Group\u2019s BMI Research expects the CBE to resume the monetary easing in the next two quarters, as it looks to boost private sector growth, the firm said in its North Africa report. The easing will take place gradually, as the CBE must also weigh […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/05\/fitchs-bmi-research-sees-monetary-easing-cycle-continuing-this-year\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-07-05T04:02:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/05\/fitchs-bmi-research-sees-monetary-easing-cycle-continuing-this-year\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/05\/fitchs-bmi-research-sees-monetary-easing-cycle-continuing-this-year\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Fitch\u2019s BMI Research sees monetary easing cycle continuing this year\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-07-05T04:02:14+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/05\/fitchs-bmi-research-sees-monetary-easing-cycle-continuing-this-year\/\"},\"wordCount\":347,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"EnterpriseAM\",\"SPEED ROUND\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Speed Round\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/05\/fitchs-bmi-research-sees-monetary-easing-cycle-continuing-this-year\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/05\/fitchs-bmi-research-sees-monetary-easing-cycle-continuing-this-year\/\",\"name\":\"Fitch\u2019s BMI Research sees monetary easing cycle continuing this year - 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