{"id":625837,"date":"2018-08-16T03:41:59","date_gmt":"2018-08-16T03:41:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/08\/16\/what-were-tracking-on-16-august-2018\/"},"modified":"2018-08-16T03:41:59","modified_gmt":"2018-08-16T03:41:59","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-16-august-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/08\/16\/what-were-tracking-on-16-august-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 16 August 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re practicing economics without a license<\/strong>, but what the hell \u2014 it\u2019s not a bad note on which to start a nearly weeklong vacation:<\/p>\n

<\/a> It\u2019s interest rate day <\/strong>and the consensus among 12 analysts polled by Reuters<\/a>is that the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will leave interest rates on hold<\/strong>. Yes, inflation cooled, but the CBE will want to see it continue to ease before looking at a rate cut. More importantly, the global macro backdrop essentially demands the central bank not cut rates today.<\/p>\n

We had been cheerleading a rate cut<\/strong>, arguing that lower borrowing rates are needed to kickstart borrowing by domestic businesses. But keeping overnight lending and deposit rates stable (for now) at 16.75% and 17.75%, respectively, could prove a key weapon in the battle to isolate Egypt from contagion threatened by a wider EM crisis sparked by Turkey.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s because emerging market equities are now in bear territory <\/strong>(shocker, we know) and Egypt is your best option in a slump<\/strong>, at least if you\u2019re a debt investor. Let\u2019s start with the good news, shall we? Traders looking for refuge from volatility will find it in Egypt<\/a>, Netty Idayu Ismail and Ahmed Feteha write for Bloomberg. While Egypt is \u201ca little bit over-crowded,\u201d one asset manager says, \u201cthe relatively high yield and relatively stable currency \u2026 [will see it] remain an interesting investment [option] for emerging-market investors.\u201d You can thank \u201ctough measures to stabilize the economy,\u201d which are paying off as \u201cstrong growth in inflows from tourism and remittances have \u2026 helped offset fund outflows in recent months.\u201d Foreign investors pared their holdings of Egyptian treasuries to USD 17.5 bn in July from USD 21.6 bn in March.<\/p>\n

Why do investors love Egyptian debt? <\/strong>Stability, to be sure: The EGP\u2019s 30-day historical volatility has eased to below 2% while the comparable indicator for Argentina is at near 20% and for Turkey at more than 70%. But really, it\u2019s a yield play: \u201cEgyptian treasury bills offer an average yield of almost 19%, pretax, compared with about 5 percent for local-currency emerging-market debt,\u201d Bloomberg says. Argentina and the nutter running Ankara offer higher yields \u2014 and much higher volatility.<\/p>\n

Oh, and you can also thank both a smooth-running interbank FX market<\/strong> and the CBE\u2019s repatriation mechanism for the stability.<\/p>\n

What, me worry? <\/strong>Egypt may look good right now, but the chief economist of the Institute of International Finance tells Reuters<\/a> you\u2019ll want to keep an eye on those fund flows. There is \u201cpotential for contagion in the form of capital outflows from some other major emerging markets, including Argentina, South Africa, Indonesia, Egypt and Lebanon,\u201d the newswire quotes the IIF\u2019s Robin Brooks as saying.<\/p>\n

So, what\u2019s this about a bear market for EM? <\/strong>Emerging market equities have \u201cslumped into a bear market\u201d again, falling to a six-month low on the back of weak Chinese economic data and EM currencies taking a hit, according to the Financial Times<\/a>. A market enters bear territory when prices are down 20% or more from their 52-week high.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s going on? <\/strong>\u201cEmerging markets have faced mounting pressure over the past few months. Concerns over trade wars have weighed heavily, while rising US interest rates and the [USD\u2019s] renaissance have dented the lustre of emerging markets, and contributed to crises in more vulnerable countries which are dependent on capital inflows, such as Argentina and Turkey,\u201d the FT writes. Also a factor: That nasty slowdown in EM export growth<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Not everyone sees Turkey threatening a wider EM contagion<\/strong>, the Wall Street Journal\u2019s Josh Zumbrun<\/a> writes, suggesting that Ankara\u2019s issues are unique. Other emerging markets (including Egypt) suffer from one or more economic challenges, but Turkey\u2019s \u201ceconomic woes include one of the largest trade deficits of any emerging-market country, unmatched external debts, a currency vulnerable to decline, exceptionally high inflation, unorthodox monetary policy and very little international goodwill,\u201d which Zumbrun notes makes it unlikely the IMF will be keen on offering Ankara a bailout.<\/p>\n

The strength of the USD could remain a challenge for the foreseeable future \u2014 and Turkey could make it worse <\/strong>if it were to introduce capital controls and repudiate some of its foreign debt, helping drive the global appreciation of the greenback, strategists at Macquarie write, according to Business insider<\/a>. Don\u2019t expect the pressure to ease up soon, Wolf Richter adds<\/a>: EM governments and companies face USD 2.7 tn in USD-denominated bond and loan obligations through 2025.<\/p>\n

But who needs the IMF when you have pals?<\/strong> Doha reportedly pledged yesterday to funnel USD 15 bn in direct investment in Turkey to help rescue the country from impending financial doom, Bloomberg reports<\/a>. Qatar\u2019s pledge \u2014 which analysts say is the fruit borne from Turkey standing by Qatar in its stand-off with the Arab Quartet \u2014 and Ankara\u2019s clampdown on short-sellers of TRY<\/a> helped drive the lira\u2019s 6% rise yesterday. Bahrain is also getting a lifeline of sorts <\/strong>as the foreign ministers of the UAE, Saudi and Kuwait met in Manama yesterday to review an aid program to \u201chelp the country repair its finances and stave off a possible currency devaluation that could roil regional markets<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Okay, so that\u2019s the end of my worry list, right? <\/strong>Not quite, the New York Times suggests in an opinion piece by Ruchir Sharma, who argues that \u201cthe fate of the world economy depends on how China negotiates a weakening currency and capital flights.\u201d Read: Worried About Turkey\u2019s Economic Problems? China\u2019s Could Be Worse<\/strong><\/a>. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Oh, and the guy who called the Turkey implosion? He sees a general financial market crisis around the corner. <\/strong>His timing was off, but Tim Lee predicted what\u2019s happening in Turkey and he sees a future in which \u201cthe river of global cash will dry up<\/a>, the USD will spike and there will be a series of financial seizures. Investors, he thinks, will flee developing economies, then Europe and eventually the American stock and bond markets.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/a> Okay, that\u2019s it \u2014 I can stop worrying? <\/strong>Only if you\u2019re not a banker. If you run a financial institution, you want to call in your CTO, your compliance guys and whoever else cares about cybersecurity, because the world\u2019s most powerful botnet has turned its attention to hacking the global banking system<\/strong>. The Necurs botnet, a network of mns of compromised computers that do the bidding of criminals, has pivoted its business model: It\u2019s targeting the employees of some 2,700 banks (and counting) with phishing messages, Axios reports<\/a>. It would be a good day to remind your staff what, exactly, a suspicious email message looks like. And remember: this comes just days after the FBI warned banks that a criminal group is planning to commit ATM fraud on a global scale this week.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/a> ** Now, in good news: It\u2019s holiday time, ladies and gentlemen. <\/strong>The CBE<\/a> and the Cabinet<\/a> have declared Monday 20 August-Thursday 23 August off for Eid Al Adha. We\u2019ll be bridging this holiday and taking the week off for some much needed R&R. We are not publishing this coming Sunday, so you can expect to see us back in your inboxes at the usual time on Sunday 26 August.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re practicing economics without a license, but what the hell \u2014 it\u2019s not a bad note on which to start a nearly weeklong vacation: It\u2019s interest rate day and the consensus among 12 analysts polled by Reutersis that the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will leave interest rates on hold. Yes, inflation cooled, but the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[72,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-625837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"189638bc-826b-485a-a580-215200ace200","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[625835],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhat we\u2019re tracking on 16 August 2018 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/08\/16\/what-were-tracking-on-16-august-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What we\u2019re tracking on 16 August 2018\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We\u2019re practicing economics without a license, but what the hell \u2014 it\u2019s not a bad note on which to start a nearly weeklong vacation: It\u2019s interest rate day and the consensus among 12 analysts polled by Reutersis that the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will leave interest rates on hold. 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The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":628722,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/05\/13\/headline-inflation-drops-as-core-inflation-inches-up-slightly-in-april\/","url_meta":{"origin":625837,"position":2},"title":"Headline inflation drops as core inflation inches up slightly in April","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 May 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s also interest rate week, ladies and gentlemen. And in advance of that: Headline inflation drops, core inflation up fractionally in April. Annual headline inflation rates dropped to 13.1% in April from 13.3% the month before, the central bank announced yesterday. Core inflation for the month inchedwas up fractionally at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/5\/2978.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":637399,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/11\/15\/what-were-tracking-this-week-101\/","url_meta":{"origin":625837,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 November 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s interest rate week: The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Thursday to review key interest rates. The meeting comes as inflation inched down fractionally in October, but nine out of 10 economists polled by Reuters believe the decreased is not yet substantial enough to warrant a change\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":650597,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/03\/28\/what-were-tracking-this-week-201\/","url_meta":{"origin":625837,"position":4},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 March 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Market sees CBE keeping rates on hold: The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets on Thursday to decide on the basic interest rates. 14 out of 15 economists surveyed by Reuters expects the bank will hold overnight deposit rates at 14.75% and overnight lending rates at 15.75%. The lone\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596209,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/21\/what-were-tracking-on-21-august-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":625837,"position":5},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 21 August 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Eid news slowdown is showing no signs of letting up... Tomorrow is interest rate day: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow. Three-quarters of economists surveyed by Enterprise this week see the central bank easing (with most anticipating a 100 bps\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=625837"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625837\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/625835"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=625837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=625837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=625837"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=625837"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=625837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}