{"id":625112,"date":"2018-09-27T04:19:15","date_gmt":"2018-09-27T04:19:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/27\/its-interest-rate-day-as-the-cbe-faces-a-challenging-macroeconomic-climate\/"},"modified":"2018-09-27T04:19:15","modified_gmt":"2018-09-27T04:19:15","slug":"its-interest-rate-day-as-the-cbe-faces-a-challenging-macroeconomic-climate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/27\/its-interest-rate-day-as-the-cbe-faces-a-challenging-macroeconomic-climate\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s interest rate day as the CBE faces a challenging macroeconomic climate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <strong>**#1<\/strong> <strong>It\u2019s interest rate day.<\/strong> The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will have to juggle fallout from the Emerging Markets Zombie Apocalypse, the imperative to lower interest rates to turbocharge corporate growth (and real job creation), higher yields on government bonds, a potentially weaker EGP, and inflation. Economists surveyed <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2018\/09\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-seen-leaving-interest-rates-on-hold-at-27-september-2018-meeting\/\">by both Reuters<\/a> and Bloomberg unanimously believe that the CBE will keep interest rates on hold in light of a challenging macroeconomic climate.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The EM Zombie Apocalypse:<\/strong> The CBE cited the selloff in EM as one of the reasons it left rates unchanged at its last meeting. In the time since, borrowing costs have gone up significantly for EMs as investors demand higher yields for debt. Compounding the matter for Egypt are reports of declining appetite for the EGP despite it having remained fairly stable (it has lost just 1.7% of its value against the USD in the past six months, while a broader index of EM currencies has slid c. 7.8%). <strong>Carry trade outflows have came in at USD 6 bn between April and June<\/strong>, putting pressure on the EGP. The upside is that the EGP is still considered moderately stable compared to other EMs, according to EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha. \u201cThe EGP made minimal gains on the way up and will make minimal losses now that the flow has reversed,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-09-26\/pleasing-investors-is-getting-expensive-for-imf-backed-egypt\">he tells Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cWe see the spillover into Egypt largely resulting in higher domestic interest rates for longer.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>The treasury is paying a lot to borrow: <\/strong>The government had forecast in this year\u2019s budget that yields on treasuries would be something along the lines of 14.7%, down from 18.5% in the previous fiscal year. Instead, yields have been averaging around 19% since the FY started in June, raising the costs of debt service in the budget and forcing the government to cancel four bond auctions. Every 1 percentage point increase in average rates raises the debt servicing bill by EGP 4-5 bn, according to the state budget. The government has since made debt control the guiding fiscal strategy and is looking to the international debt markets for financing \u2014 great, because interest rates are lower. Bad, because you\u2019re now taking on new FX risk.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The struggles of the private sector:<\/strong> The private sector has been in a high interest rate climate. Companies are \u201creluctant to borrow for expansion because loans are expensive,\u201d said Monsef Morsy, head of financial analysis at CI Capital in Cairo. \u201cCredit is indeed growing, but it\u2019s mostly to fund working capital, and not for investment.\u201d And who can blame prospective borrowers? What kind of return on investment do you need to justify to pay credit-card interest rates when you put in a new production line?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Impact of EM apocalypse on Egypt will be reviewed next month:<\/strong> Egypt can withstand the impact of the emerging market selloff, said Planning Minister Hala El Said on Wednesday, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.almalnews.com\/Story\/391157\/15\/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%B7%D9%8A%D8%B7-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%AF%D9%89-%D8%AA%D8%A3%D8%AB%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1%D9%89-%D8%A8%D8%A3%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%A6%D8%A9\">according to Al Mal<\/a>. The true impact of the crisis on Egypt\u2019s fiscal and growth targets for 1Q2018-19 will be reviewed in October, she added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>**#1 It\u2019s interest rate day. The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will have to juggle fallout from the Emerging Markets Zombie Apocalypse, the imperative to lower interest rates to turbocharge corporate growth (and real job creation), higher yields on government bonds, a potentially weaker EGP, and inflation. Economists surveyed by both Reuters and Bloomberg unanimously [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":625113,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[72,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-625112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-enterpriseam","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9d31a5ab-7c3a-48f0-946d-b14286fe9ffe","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/9\/785.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[625107],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>It\u2019s interest rate day as the CBE faces a challenging macroeconomic climate - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/27\/its-interest-rate-day-as-the-cbe-faces-a-challenging-macroeconomic-climate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"It\u2019s interest rate day as the CBE faces a challenging macroeconomic climate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"**#1 It\u2019s interest rate day. 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Nine of 10 analysts surveyed expect the bank to keep\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/76.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596723,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/07\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-key-interest-rates-on-hold-this-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":625112,"position":1},"title":"Enterprise poll: CBE to leave key interest rates on hold this Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- CBE to leave key interest rates on hold this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt will leave key interest rates on hold when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to all nine economists polled by Enterprise. Respondents cited the inflationary effects of last weekend\u2019s fuel subsidy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":623073,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/10\/21\/confused-by-all-this-talk-about-the-em-zombie-apocalypse\/","url_meta":{"origin":625112,"position":2},"title":"Confused by all this talk about the \u201cEM zombie apocalypse\u201d?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"** #10 The EM Zombie Apocalypse for Dummies: The emerging markets sell-off has spooked investors as some currencies take a nosedive, but understanding what\u2019s happening is not all that difficult if you follow the historical pattern, the Financial Times\u2019 Martin Sandbu says.We\u2019ve seen this happen before: Recessions in developed countries\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Worth watching&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Worth watching","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/lifestyle\/worth-watching\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/10\/235.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594414,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/29\/yields-on-short-term-govt-treasuries-continue-rallying-while-long-term-yields-dip\/","url_meta":{"origin":625112,"position":3},"title":"Yields on short-term gov\u2019t treasuries continue rallying, while long-term yields dip","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Yields on short-term gov\u2019t treasuries continue rallying, while long-term yields dip: Yields on Egypt\u2019s short-term government treasuries are picking up for the third consecutive week, after falling 200 bps after the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) began cutting interest rates in August. A gauge used by Al Mal to measure\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592726,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/05\/egyptian-bonds-are-the-best-performing-in-2019-despite-interest-rate-cuts-says-emirates-nbd\/","url_meta":{"origin":625112,"position":4},"title":"Egyptian bonds are the best performing in 2019, despite interest rate cuts, says Emirates NBD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s bonds outperformed this year, despite consecutive rate cuts -Emirates NBD: Egypt\u2019s local currency bonds have been the best performing in the world in 2019, with investor appetite seemingly undeterred by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cutting rates 350 bps so far this year, according to Emirates NBD\u2019s monthly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/1165.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593103,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/18\/t-bill-yields-fall-slightly-in-first-auction-after-rate-cut\/","url_meta":{"origin":625112,"position":5},"title":"T-bill yields fall slightly in first auction after rate cut","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"T-bill yields fall slightly in first auction after rate cut: Yields on three-month and nine-month treasury bills fell yesterday in the first auction after the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut benchmark interest rates by 100 bps. Official data yesterday showed that an auction of three-month t-bills fetched a yield\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=625112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625112\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/625107"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/625113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=625112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=625112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=625112"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=625112"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=625112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}