{"id":624860,"date":"2018-09-20T04:12:38","date_gmt":"2018-09-20T04:12:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/20\/food-for-thought-could-the-central-bank-let-the-egp-slip-a-bit-against-the-usd\/"},"modified":"2018-09-20T04:12:38","modified_gmt":"2018-09-20T04:12:38","slug":"food-for-thought-could-the-central-bank-let-the-egp-slip-a-bit-against-the-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/20\/food-for-thought-could-the-central-bank-let-the-egp-slip-a-bit-against-the-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"Food for thought: Could the central bank let the EGP slip a bit against the USD?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> **#3 Food for thought: Could the central bank let the EGP slip a bit against the USD? <\/strong>Against the backdrop of the Emerging Markets Zombie Apocalypse, a research report this week from Shuaa Securities\u2019 Egypt office sees two possible scenarios when the central bank\u2019s monetary policy committee meets a week from today:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Hike interest rates at least 100 bps in the short-term<\/strong> to keep Egyptian debt attractive to the carry trade amid rising competition from other EM and the generally chill running through a certain type of EM investor at the moment. <\/li>\n
  2. Leave rates on hold and signal to the banks that they should allow the EGP weaken a bit<\/strong>. Shuaa notes that over the past six months or so, we\u2019ve seen the USD gain 5.5% and EM currencies slide c. 7.8% \u2014 but the EGP has lost only 1.7% in the same period. Allowing the EGP to slide a bit, it writes, \u201ccould limit foreign outflows from Treasuries (as they would be losing on the FX side).\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Pros and cons: <\/strong>Shuaa figures the rate hike is the less likely of its scenarios, saying it would drive up state borrowing costs too much (at the same time, we note, that the Finance Ministry is putting on a full-court press to manage Egypt\u2019s debt position) and would also be negative for equities. The firm likes its second scenario, but notes the knock-on effects on inflation could be ugly.<\/p>\n

    Why this matters to the fall IPO season: <\/strong>Shuaa suggests that with foreign appetite key to upcoming equity offerings, prospective issuers need to hope for continued EGP stability \u2014 and will need to think twice about pricing: \u201cValuation multiples these stock offerings will be sold at should imply an attractive discount to fair value.\u201d<\/p>\n

    When do we find out? <\/strong>The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s MPC next meets a week from today (27 September) and then again on 15 November and 27 December. We still see it leaving rates unchanged, but\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    **#3 Food for thought: Could the central bank let the EGP slip a bit against the USD? Against the backdrop of the Emerging Markets Zombie Apocalypse, a research report this week from Shuaa Securities\u2019 Egypt office sees two possible scenarios when the central bank\u2019s monetary policy committee meets a week from today: Hike interest rates […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[72,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-624860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-enterpriseam","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1a1a7dc4-a7c2-44b4-997e-a3d27cc12e0d","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"d43dc7a0-147c-43fb-8006-3d49ad898483","story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[624853],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nFood for thought: Could the central bank let the EGP slip a bit against the USD? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/20\/food-for-thought-could-the-central-bank-let-the-egp-slip-a-bit-against-the-usd\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Food for thought: Could the central bank let the EGP slip a bit against the USD?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"**#3 Food for thought: Could the central bank let the EGP slip a bit against the USD? 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But investors are increasingly seeing the EGP as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/321.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":624367,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/06\/egp-could-lose-up-to-10-of-its-value-against-the-usd-by-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":624860,"position":3},"title":"EGP could lose up to 10% of its value against the USD by 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 September 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"**#1 Is the central bank propping-up the EGP amid the ongoing emerging markets selloff? Capital Economics suggests in a report out yesterday that the central bank has \u201cintervened to support the EGP in recent months.\u201d The report points as evidence to the stability of the EGP throughout the emerging markets\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598869,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/11\/the-question-on-everyones-lips-where-is-the-egp-heading\/","url_meta":{"origin":624860,"position":4},"title":"The question on everyone\u2019s lips: Where is the EGP heading?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"ANALYSIS- The question on everyone\u2019s lips as we ponder the kickoff of budget season at most companies after the summer break: Where is the EGP heading? The EGP has been on a good run this year, appreciating by about 7% YTD against the USD to 16.7917. But this isn\u2019t set\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/4\/EGP-USD-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":625016,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-seen-leaving-interest-rates-on-hold-at-27-september-2018-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":624860,"position":5},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt seen leaving interest rates on hold at 27 September 2018 meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 September 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"**#2 Consensus is that the central bank will leave interest rates on hold this Thursday when its monetary policy committee meets, according to a Reuters poll out yesterday. Some analysts, including in Shuaa, see borrowing costs and the strength of the USD as the crucial factors at the meeting, saying\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=624860"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624860\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/624853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=624860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=624860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=624860"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=624860"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=624860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}