{"id":624470,"date":"2018-09-10T04:16:47","date_gmt":"2018-09-10T04:16:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/10\/were-going-to-have-to-keep-interest-rates-high-as-competition-mounts-for-hot-money\/"},"modified":"2018-09-10T04:16:47","modified_gmt":"2018-09-10T04:16:47","slug":"were-going-to-have-to-keep-interest-rates-high-as-competition-mounts-for-hot-money","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/10\/were-going-to-have-to-keep-interest-rates-high-as-competition-mounts-for-hot-money\/","title":{"rendered":"We\u2019re going to have to keep interest rates high as competition mounts for hot money"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> **#3 High interest rates are the price we will have to pay to stay competitive to the carry trade. <\/strong>Emerging markets are in their first \u201csustained\u201d rate-hike cycle since 2011. Rates are rising in EM from Turkey and Argentina to India, Indonesia, the Philippines and the Czech Republic, and the upshot is that we\u2019re going to face competition for allocations from the carry trade. Think of it as the global arms race of EM monetary policy.<\/p>\n

The others are catching up to us: <\/strong>An index maintained by Capital Economics and picked up by the Financial Times<\/a> notes that an index of \u201cthe number of emerging market central banks raising rates minus the number cutting them has risen to is highest level since 2011, when the world was still recovering from the most acute phase of the global financial crisis.\u201d MENA has had the highest policy rates globally for the past couple of years, but as a Capital Economics chart shows (above), the gap between us, Latin America and emerging Europe has narrowed.<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s new Catch 22: Paying more to keep capital here strangles private-sector borrowing and raises costs to the state treasury. <\/strong>Egypt led EM with a substantial rate hike after the float of the EGP \u2014 arguing the IMF orthodoxy that raising rates was necessary to help curb inflation. It also ensured we were attractive to hot money, which came pouring in to help rebuild reserves and ease pressure on the EGP. We\u2019ve been saying for the past month that with the EM sell-off continuing, policymakers now have a new Catch 22: Fund managers are pulling out of emerging markets, spooked (a) by the risks about which we drone on every morning in this space and (b) motivated by a strengthening USD and the prospect of rate hikes in the United States. As other countries raise rates, Egypt\u2019s central bank will have to (at a minimum) leave interest rates on hold to keep the carry trade from fleeing Egypt. Toss in the risk of depreciation of the EGP (as Turkey, South Africa and other major EM are seeing) and we see the central bank leaving rates unchanged when it next meets at the end of the month.<\/p>\n

This is (at best) mediocre news for the private sector<\/strong> and possibly for FDI, where we have long argued that high interest rates discourage investment by domestic businesses \u2014 a key catalyst to help unlock foreign direct investment. And high policy rates will also continue to keep borrowing costs high for the good folks at the Finance Ministry, with all that that entails (in the near-to-medium term) for government finances.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

**#3 High interest rates are the price we will have to pay to stay competitive to the carry trade. Emerging markets are in their first \u201csustained\u201d rate-hike cycle since 2011. Rates are rising in EM from Turkey and Argentina to India, Indonesia, the Philippines and the Czech Republic, and the upshot is that we\u2019re going […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":624471,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[72,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-624470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e781a4db-b8c0-4f93-851d-b591fe660c8f","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"37e22ee5-1bce-4d85-b372-e3f28c78daa6","story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/9\/2259.png","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[624467],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWe\u2019re going to have to keep interest rates high as competition mounts for hot money - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/10\/were-going-to-have-to-keep-interest-rates-high-as-competition-mounts-for-hot-money\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"We\u2019re going to have to keep interest rates high as competition mounts for hot money\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"**#3 High interest rates are the price we will have to pay to stay competitive to the carry trade. 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ultimately good for EM, then you\u2019ll be happy to know that the United States, the Eurozone and Japan have all released data that suggest their economies are showing \u201crenewed signs of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2017\/5\/1151.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":628877,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/05\/16\/what-were-tracking-on-16-may-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":624470,"position":1},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 16 May 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 May 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, nine of 11 economists polled by Reuters said yesterday. \u201cWe expect rates to remain on hold given a slightly elevated inflation reading in April, and more importantly, given the sharp increase\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561904,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/26\/were-still-a-carry-trade-darling\/","url_meta":{"origin":624470,"position":2},"title":"We\u2019re still a carry trade darling","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s carry trade is set to continue its upward trajectory thanks to our attractive real interest rates and low-risk environment, Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at emerging markets research firm Tellimer, told Bloomberg (watch, runtime: 6:57). \u201cWith a real interest rate close to 4%, very low currency risk because\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/263.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":624310,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/05\/what-were-tracking-on-05-september-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":624470,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 05 September 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 September 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"** We\u2019re trying something new this morning: Longtime readers know that you can no longer tap or click the headline in our tl;dr above in the email edition and zip down to the story in question. This used to work in email (and still does in our web edition) \u2014\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":599084,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/18\/what-were-tracking-on-18-june-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":624470,"position":4},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 18 June 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Former president Mohamed Morsi died yesterday, collapsing in court after speaking for some five minutes during his latest trial. He was subsequently declared dead in hospital. We have full coverage in this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below. There\u2019s lots of banking news this morning coming out of the Seamless North Africa\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":624060,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/06\/23\/em-currencies-on-course-for-worst-1h-since-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":624470,"position":5},"title":"EM currencies on course for worst 1H since 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 June 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"JPMorgan\u2019s index for currencies in emerging markets has dipped 4.4% in 2024","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/6\/1348.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624470","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=624470"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624470\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/624467"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/624471"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=624470"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=624470"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=624470"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=624470"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=624470"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}