{"id":624412,"date":"2018-09-09T04:11:21","date_gmt":"2018-09-09T04:11:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/09\/what-were-tracking-on-9-september-2018\/"},"modified":"2018-09-09T04:11:21","modified_gmt":"2018-09-09T04:11:21","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-9-september-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/09\/09\/what-were-tracking-on-9-september-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 9 September 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> **#1 AAIB boss Hassan Abdalla is out <\/strong>after more than a decade as the Egyptian-Kuwaiti joint venture\u2019s vice-chairman and managing director. Abdalla, who was one of the most high-profile bank leaders facing the term limits the central bank has repeatedly mulled imposing, will reportedly serve<\/a> as an advisor to Central Bank of Egypt Governor Tarek Amer. Accounts differ as to the position Abdalla is taking at the CBE, with AMAY<\/a> and Al Shorouk saying<\/a> he will be \u201cfirst assistant governor,\u201d a title that so far as we can tell does not presently exist at the central bank. (The term used in the press does not equate to the \u201cdeputy governor\u201d ranks held by Gamal Negm and Lobna Helal.) The Arab African International Bank is a joint venture<\/a> between the CBE and the Kuwait Investment Authority.<\/p>\n

Sherif Elwy will apparently step in to run AAIB<\/strong>, according to domestic press reports<\/a>. Elwy was previously deputy chairman at the National Bank of Egypt and country manager for Egypt at Arab Bank.<\/p>\n

GERD project manager committed suicide:<\/strong> Ethiopian police have concluded that the project manager of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Simegnew Bekele, committed suicide, Reuters reports<\/a>. Bekele was found dead in his car in Addis Ababa in July with a gunshot wound under his ear, raising suspicion that the case was a homicide. According to police, the \u201cinvestigation had shown that the victim had been under pressure from delays in the construction of the dam.\u201d There was widespread speculation in some quarters that Egypt could have been responsible for Bekele\u2019s death.<\/p>\n

The EFG Hermes London conference<\/strong>, the fall\u2019s top gathering of frontier and emerging markets fund managers, kicks off tomorrow at Emirates Arsenal Stadium. The conference website is here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the 10-year anniversary of the global financial crisis this week.<\/strong> Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on 15 September, 2008. Look for plenty of \u201cWhere are we now?\u201d and \u201cThe world really is going to send soon\u201d stories in the days to come. Start with these:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe financial crisis made us afraid of risk \u2014 for a while\u201d<\/strong><\/a> is the headline atop a heavy-hitting piece from the Wall Street Journal this weekend. \u201cThe world has retreated from risk. That retreat has reshaped institutions, regulations and attitudes, and in the process the economy: It\u2019s why economic growth has been so durable yet so muted, with less of the risk-taking that both drives booms and busts and raises long-run growth.\u201d But risk is increasingly back on the menu, and \u201cwhat remains unclear is whether it paves the way for years more of stable, crisis-free growth, or yet another bust.\u201d<\/p>\n

Confession of a crisis-era journalist: <\/strong>The FT\u2019s John Authers admits that he knew there was a bank run taking place in 2008, and he neither said nor wrote anything about it. If he had, it might have precipitated a complete collapse of the US banking system<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Speaking of the end of the world: Where are we on the Emerging Markets Zombie Apocalypse? <\/strong>The global business press gave EM something a respite this weekend after currencies including the TRY and the ZAR gained against the USD, \u201chelping the wider EM currency index to snap a three day losing streak to eke out small gains,\u201d Reuters said<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The selloff is just another wave in the cycle: <\/strong>Developing economies are not facing a \u201csystemic crisis,\u201d the Financial Times said in one piece<\/a>. Despite a recent drop into bear market status, EMs are set for a rebound, with expectations this year seeing aggregate GDP recording a 5% growth rate, despite the situations in Turkey and Argentina.<\/p>\n

Can investors tell dogs from angels? <\/strong>The salmon-colored paper\u2019s editorial board notes in another piece<\/a> that \u201cthere are, happily, clear signs that investors are distinguishing between countries that have serious \u2014 and largely homegrown \u2014 problems, and those that have sounder fundamentals.<\/p>\n

Either way, the EM Zombie Apocalypse still hasn\u2019t reached 1997-2002 crisis levels,<\/strong> BlueBay Asset Management\u2019s Timothy Ash alsowrites for the FT<\/a>. For starters, most large EMs have freed their currency exchange regimes, which should in time help narrow current account deficits. Unlike in the past, EM debt levels have not reached alarming levels, oil prices are fairly stable, and \u201cdespite concerns about trade wars, both global trade and real GDP growth are holding up well\u201d across most EMs. Now as well, foreign investors own a significant portion of EM government debt. \u201cSuch holdings tend to be heavily concentrated in favoured EM stories, including Argentina, Egypt, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey and Nigeria.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lex also thinks<\/strong><\/a> that the EM sell-off is overdone<\/strong>, with the influential page calling the Zombie Apocalypse \u201cuncontagious\u201d and noting that while selloffs in Argentina and Turkey may make sense, there\u2019s \u201cless logic to falls in stocks and bonds from countries with low levels of foreign currency debt and stronger balance sheets.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other headlines worth noting in brief:<\/strong><\/p>\n