{"id":623782,"date":"2024-06-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/06\/11\/inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-in-over-a-year\/"},"modified":"2024-06-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-in-over-a-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/06\/11\/inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-in-over-a-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation falls to lowest level in over a year"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annual inflation falls to lowest level in over a year: <\/strong>Annual urban inflation cooled to 28.1% in May, down from 32.5% in April<\/a> on the back of considerably slower food price increases, as traders continued to price in a lower exchange rate following the float of the EGP, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas. This is the lowest inflation figure recorded since January 2023.<\/p>\n

Driving the fall:<\/strong> Food and beverage prices \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 continued to rise but a significantly softer rate of 31.0% y-o-y in May, down 9.5 percentage points from a month prior. <\/p>\n

Inflation softened across (almost) all segments: <\/strong>\u201cEleven items of the consumer price index recorded a deceleration by an average of 2.7%, except for \u201crecreation and culture\u201d \u2026 due to a surge in \u201cpackage holidays\u201d item,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos said in a note seen by Enterprise. <\/p>\n

Monthly inflation in the negative for the first time in nearly two years:<\/strong> On a monthly basis, inflation fell on all items for the first time since June 2022, with prices falling 0.7% m-o-m. This is the biggest drop inflation has seen m-o-m since June 2019. <\/p>\n

The trend persists:<\/strong> Food and beverage prices dipped 3% from the month before, marking the second consecutive month of deflation. This was driven by a dip in the prices of bread and cereals, meat and poultry, and vegetables. <\/p>\n

Core inflation: <\/strong>Annual core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel \u2014 slowed to 27.1%, down from 31.8% in April, according to data<\/a> from the Central Bank of Egypt. Monthly core inflation, meanwhile, was in the negative, recording -0.8%, down from 0.3% the month before. <\/p>\n

Even better than expected:<\/strong> Analysts polled by Reuters<\/a> and Bloomberg<\/a> saw inflation cooling, but not as much as it did. The 19 analysts polled by Reuters saw headline inflation decreasing to a median of 30.4%. <\/p>\n

Don\u2019t celebrate yet: <\/strong>\u201cDisinflation might be temporarily interrupted by mid-year readings due to measures including decreasing subsidies on bread<\/a>, higher electricity<\/a> and meds prices<\/a>, and a potential hike in petroleum products\u2019 prices,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos says. Thndr Securities\u2019 Amr Elalfy agrees, telling Enterprise that \u201cthese pressures may push inflation to rebound towards 30% or slightly higher.\u201d While \u201cfavorable base effects may mitigate some impacts of these measures, we must remain vigilant about their influence on inflation figures,\u201d economist Mona Bedeir said in a note shared on LinkedIn<\/a>. <\/p>\n

What does this mean for monetary policy going forward? <\/strong>Don\u2019t expect cuts before \u201cthere are clear signs of tamed inflation and well-anchored inflation expectations,\u201d Bedeir said, adding that she doesn\u2019t see the central bank cutting rates before 4Q 2024. Meanwhile, Capital Economics\u2019 MENA economist James Swanston sees the central bank cutting rates even later, penciling in early next year. <\/p>\n

Things could look up later in the year: <\/strong>\u201cWe expect the disinflation process to resume later in the year and into 2025,\u201d Swanston added. <\/p>\n

The international press also picked up the story: <\/strong>Reuters<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Monthly inflation also fell for the first time in nearly two years<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":623783,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,317,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-623782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-commodities","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8757d10a-4390-4b5a-9dbc-4205d62e07a3","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/6\/943.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation falls to lowest level in over a year, recording 28.1% in May","related_issue":[623777],"teaser":"Monthly inflation also fell for the first time in nearly two years","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/6\/.dc6c28ec-75d0-4721-9d88-107c3d0d4c99.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nInflation falls to lowest level in over a year - 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Annual urban inflation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/2304.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592872,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/11\/egypts-annual-headline-inflation-cools-again-in-october\/","url_meta":{"origin":623782,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation cools again in October","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Headline inflation cools again in October, ramping up expectations of a rate cut this week: Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate dropped for the fifth consecutive month to its lowest level in nine years, hitting 2.4% in October from 4.3% in September, according to Capmas data (pdf) released yesterday. 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Urban headline inflation dropped for the second consecutive month to 4.3% from 5.4% in December 2020, and closing in on a 3.7% record low reading last September, figures from state statistics agency Capmas (pdf) and the central\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/429.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/623782","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=623782"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/623782\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/623777"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/623783"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=623782"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=623782"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=623782"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=623782"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=623782"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}