{"id":622641,"date":"2018-10-09T04:35:02","date_gmt":"2018-10-09T04:35:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/10\/09\/what-were-tracking-on-9-october-2018\/"},"modified":"2018-10-09T04:35:02","modified_gmt":"2018-10-09T04:35:02","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-9-october-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/10\/09\/what-were-tracking-on-9-october-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 9 October 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>It\u2019s one of those good-news, bad-news mornings, folks. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>On the good news side the ledger:<\/strong> One of the year\u2019s most hotly anticipated IPOs is on as top construction and engineering group Hassan Allam Holding announced yesterday its intention to sell shares. That came as Egypt sold treasury bonds at auction yesterday, sign policymakers have the fortitude to make tough decisions. We have chapter and verse in Speed Round, below.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The benchmark EGX30 slid 3.6% yesterday to its lowest close in 12 months<\/strong> as \u201cweakness in emerging markets and margin calls among local investors\u201d bit hard on reasonably thin volumes. <strong>But we\u2019re still not quite in bear territory: <\/strong>The EGX30 is down 15% since the end of August, so we have 5 ppt left to go before we hit the psychological 20% mark an can be said to be a bear market. The EGX30 is off nearly 9.5% year-to-date. We have more in Speed Round, below.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> ** #1 <strong>EM Zombie Apocalypse will bite heading into 2019: <\/strong>The IMF\u2019s World Economic Outlook hit the streets a couple of hours ago, and it\u2019s not looking wonderful for EM as a whole next year: The IMF sees emerging markets growth \u201cflatlining\u201d \u2014 unchanged at 4.7% this year and in 2019. That\u2019s a substantial revision downward from the 4.9% for this year and 5.1% for next year that the IMF had predicted in July, and you have problems in Argentina, Turkey, South Africa and Iran (as well as a slowdown in China) to thank.<\/p>\n<p><strong>But on the good news side, the IMF is really bullish on Egypt:<\/strong> The fund writes that \u201cGrowth in Egypt is projected to rise to 5.5% in 2019 \u2026 reflecting a recovery in tourism, rising natural gas production, and continued improvements in confidence due to implementation of an ambitious reform program supported by the IMF\u2019s Extended Fund Facility.\u201d <strong>The IMF is also watching to make certain we stay the course on the reform agenda<\/strong>, writing that \u201chealthy foreign reserves and a flexible exchange rate leave the economy well positioned to manage any acceleration in outflows,\u201d but warning it will be \u201cimportant\u201d to maintain \u201csound macroeconomic frameworks and consistent policy implementation, which have led to a successful macroeconomic stabilization.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>What are the IMF\u2019s projections on Egypt?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Five years of very strong economic growth: <\/strong>The economy will grow 5.3% this year and 5.5% in 2019 \u2014 and still be growing at a very brisk 6% as far out as 2023;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Unemployment will fall <\/strong>to 9.9% next year from 10.9% this year \u2014 down sharply from 12.2% in 2017.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Inflation will cool <\/strong>to 14.0% in 2019, down from 20.9% in 2018 and a high north of 30% last year. (Remember, folks, that the peak in the 30s last year was the central bank\u2019s measure of inflation \u2014 real inflation for middle-class and upper-middle-class wage earners was in the low 80% range last year.)<\/li>\n<li><strong>The current account balance will improve <\/strong>to -2.4% of GDP next year from -2.6% this year and -6.3% in 2017.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>We\u2019re growing at more than 2x the pace of the MENA region<\/strong>, where the IMF sees average growth coming in at 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2017. We\u2019re also on track to outstrip growth in the wider \u201cMiddle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan\u201d region, where the fund is predicting 2.4% growth this year and 2.7% next year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The global business press is having a field day with the notion of lower global growth <\/strong>as the IMF predicts the global economy advancing 3.7% this year and next, down from an original forecast of 3.9% for both years. Look to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/487ae14e-cae9-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956\">Financial Times<\/a> (great EM angle), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/imf-lowers-global-growth-forecasts-for-2018-and-2019-1539048878?mod=hp_major_pos1\">Wall Street Journal<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-imf-worldbank-outlook\/imf-cuts-world-economic-growth-forecasts-as-import-tariffs-emerging-market-issues-bite-idUSKCN1MJ025?il=0\">Reuters<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-10-09\/imf-cuts-forecast-for-global-growth-as-trade-war-takes-its-toll?srnd=premium-middle-east\">Bloomberg<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/10\/09\/world-economic-outlook-imf-cuts-global-growth-forecasts-on-trade-fight.html\">CNBC<\/a> (drilling into the global impact of trade wars), depending on your preferences.<\/p>\n<p>The release of the WEO comes as the Grand Wizards of High Finance convene in Bali for the <strong>fall meetings of the IMF and World Bank<\/strong>. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait and Vice Minister Ahmed Kouchouk are among those from Egypt attending. <strong>You can <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2018\/09\/24\/world-economic-outlook-october-2018\"><strong>visit the World Economic Outlook landing page here<\/strong><\/a> or just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/~\/media\/Files\/Publications\/WEO\/2018\/October\/English\/main-report\/Text.ashx?la=en\">download the full WEO (pdf)<\/a>. The <a href=\"https:\/\/meetings.imf.org\/en\/2018\/Annual\">landing page for the fall meetings is here<\/a>. The gathering runs through Sunday, 14 October.<\/p>\n<p><strong>From the Department of Duh: The emerging market sell-off suggests that investors view EM as a homogenous \u201cbasket,\u201d<\/strong> rather than accounting for individual merits and downsides, Bank Pekao CEO Michael Krupinski writes for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/e23c3178-c8c0-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9\">the Financial Times<\/a>\u2019 Beyond BRICS blog. On the flipside, advanced economies are sometimes shrugged off as potential sources of financial instability, despite the 2008 financial crisis proving otherwise. \u201cThis flawed dichotomy between emerging and developed countries obscures the landscape and diverts investments away from healthy [ventures]. The recent pessimism regarding emerging markets is probably as unfounded as it is widespread, once we realize how diverse this group of economies really is.\u201d Krupinski suggests setting up a different mechanism for assessing economic health, such as focusing more on the sustainability of each country\u2019s economic policies.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Brent crude fell 1.3% to around USD 83\/bbl<\/strong> yesterday as the Trump administration eyes waivers on Iran sanctions. The possible waivers have renewed hopes that the US may soften the blow on sanction on Iranian oil exports, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-global-oil\/oil-drops-to-around-83-on-expectations-iran-will-maintain-some-exports-idUSKCN1MI00W\">Reuters<\/a> reports. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-10-08\/brent-drops-below-84-as-saudis-vow-to-replace-lost-iranian-oil\">Bloomberg<\/a>, the US was said to be in talks with countries that want to continue buying from Iran after the US imposes its sanctions on November 4.<\/p>\n<p><strong>In miscellany this morning <\/strong>to help get you through your commute (or that interminably long conference call you\u2019re dreading):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Google covered up a massive breach of user data <\/strong>to avoid controversy. An investigation by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/google-exposed-user-data-feared-repercussions-of-disclosing-to-public-1539017194\">Wall Street Journal<\/a> has prompted Google to announce it is shutting down its Google+ social network.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Big regional M&A: <\/strong>GE unit Baker Hughes is buying a 5% stake in Abu Dhabi National Oil Company\u2019s (ADNOC) drilling unit for USD 550 mn<\/li>\n<li><strong>Pakistan is starting bailout talks <\/strong>with the IMF for a package to help stabilize its finances as FX reserves plummet, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/a6cbe2d4-cb1b-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab\">Financial Times<\/a> reports.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Want to build a fintech business in Egypt?<\/strong> Pride Capital is running an event looking at how to build a successful monetization strategy for a fintech business today at 5:30pm on the Greek Campus. The event will be featuring our friend Martin Janzen, MD at Simon-Kucher Egypt, and MENA Startup Bootcamp\u2019s Todd OBrien. Simon-Kucher works with global tech outfits including Paypal, Stripe, Uber and Evernote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s one of those good-news, bad-news mornings, folks. On the good news side the ledger: One of the year\u2019s most hotly anticipated IPOs is on as top construction and engineering group Hassan Allam Holding announced yesterday its intention to sell shares. That came as Egypt sold treasury bonds at auction yesterday, sign policymakers have the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[72,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-622641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"de678d52-6ef4-4eb4-ad02-eab656c07746","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[622639],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What we\u2019re tracking on 9 October 2018 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/10\/09\/what-were-tracking-on-9-october-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What we\u2019re tracking on 9 October 2018\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s one of those good-news, bad-news mornings, folks. 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The sell-off was overdone and on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":638899,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/10\/17\/what-were-tracking-on-17-october-2017\/","url_meta":{"origin":622641,"position":1},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 17 October 2017","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 October 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The EGX30 got slammed yesterday, retreating 2.7% on a volumes that were about 52% above the trailing 90-day average \u2014 and underperforming on the regional and global fronts. The selling pressure came in the way of foreign institutions, which looked as though they were locking in profits after a good\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597861,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/07\/what-were-tracking-on-07-may-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":622641,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 07 May 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Welcome to one of the slowest news days of the past year, ladies and gentlemen. We hope your first day of fasting passed smoothly yesterday \u2014 only have 29 more days to go. In the meantime, the Associated Press brings us a rundown of key facts about the holy month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561072,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/24\/what-were-tracking-on-24-march-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":622641,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 24 March 2021","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, friends. The big question on everyone\u2019s mind this morning: Will investors step in today on the EGX to \u201cbuy the dip\u201d after the EGX30 posted another day of losses yesterday. After spending the first quarter solidly in the green, a sharp two-day selloff has sent it down 3.5%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":638422,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/10\/04\/what-were-tracking-on-4-october-2017\/","url_meta":{"origin":622641,"position":4},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 4 October 2017","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 October 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The EGX ended yesterday a six-day bull run that saw it hit an all-time high of 14,100 points on Monday. The EGX30 slipped 0.5% to close at 13,931 yesterday, according to Reuters.The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded yesterday to Rainer Weiss jointly with Barry C. Barish and Kip\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":622861,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/10\/15\/what-were-tracking-on-15-october-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":622641,"position":5},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 15 October 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"** #5 Our friends at Sarwa Capital will ring the bell at the EGX this morning as their shares make their bourse debut, opening at EGP 7.36 each under the ticker SRWA. A stabilization fund is at work for the first month of trading. Beltone was sole global coordinator and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=622641"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622641\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/622639"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=622641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=622641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=622641"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=622641"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=622641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}