{"id":622069,"date":"2018-11-26T04:10:53","date_gmt":"2018-11-26T04:10:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/26\/has-the-impact-of-a-rising-usd-on-the-em-selloff-been-overblown\/"},"modified":"2018-11-26T04:10:53","modified_gmt":"2018-11-26T04:10:53","slug":"has-the-impact-of-a-rising-usd-on-the-em-selloff-been-overblown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/26\/has-the-impact-of-a-rising-usd-on-the-em-selloff-been-overblown\/","title":{"rendered":"Has the impact of a rising USD on the EM selloff been overblown?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Have the talking heads exaggerated the impact of a strong greenback on emerging markets?<\/strong> A number of analysts speaking to the FT<\/a> argue so, saying that while a rising USD and interest rates are a factor in the emerging market selloff, it is not the determining factor.<\/p>\n

So what is the cause?<\/strong> \u201cSaying it is all about the USD is a misrepresentation,\u201d says Bernd Berg, global macro and foreign exchange analyst at Woodman, a Swiss asset manager. He points instead to slowing growth in China, a loss of confidence in EM as a result of turmoil in Argentina and Turkey, and the trade war between the US and China. \u201cIf there is one thing that drives the USD, it is the difference between US growth and growth in the rest of the world,\u201d says Bhanu Baweja, deputy head of global macro strategy at UBS. \u201cSo there is correlation rather than causation, and if you say EM is all about the USD, you are really undervaluing EM\u2019s issues.\u201d<\/p>\n

The data supports the view: <\/strong>\u201cThe sell-off during the summer was independent of the move in the USD,\u201d Berg argues, noting that the DXY USD index was moving sideways between June and September, while EM currencies were in decline. Since then, the greenback has risen as EM currencies have remained flat. \u201cIn the USD\u2019s upward cycle EM currencies are getting weaker, and in its downward cycle they are not appreciating,\u201d says Baweja. \u201cWith very few exceptions, EMs have depreciated in a straight line. You quickly see that this is not a USD strength or weakness story.\u201d<\/p>\n

Look to the PBoC and not the Fed: <\/strong>Instead of looking to the US Federal Reserve, analysts should be looking to the People\u2019s Bank of China. \u201cThe willingness and ability of Beijing to support growth through fiscal stimulus should have at least as much impact on EM assets as any decisions taken at the Fed,\u201d writes Jonathan Wheatley.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Have the talking heads exaggerated the impact of a strong greenback on emerging markets? A number of analysts speaking to the FT argue so, saying that while a rising USD and interest rates are a factor in the emerging market selloff, it is not the determining factor. So what is the cause? \u201cSaying it is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[115,72,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-622069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7615dab0-9210-4fb6-a9a8-96e92fe71c21","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[622049],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nHas the impact of a rising USD on the EM selloff been overblown? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/26\/has-the-impact-of-a-rising-usd-on-the-em-selloff-been-overblown\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Has the impact of a rising USD on the EM selloff been overblown?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Have the talking heads exaggerated the impact of a strong greenback on emerging markets? 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Investors pulled out roughly USD 13.8 bn from EM stocks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/248.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597208,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/18\/development-in-emerging-markets-is-being-held-back\/","url_meta":{"origin":622069,"position":3},"title":"Development in emerging markets is being held back","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Ominous EM outlook of the week: Deglobalization, the Chinese slowdown, and a decade of financial stimulus in advanced economies are holding back emerging markets from catching up with the developed world, Jonathan Wheatley writes in the Financial Times. 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