{"id":621964,"date":"2018-11-22T04:22:21","date_gmt":"2018-11-22T04:22:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/22\/convergence-of-us-and-eu-economies-will-decide-if-a-major-global-recession-is-coming-el-erian\/"},"modified":"2018-11-22T04:22:21","modified_gmt":"2018-11-22T04:22:21","slug":"convergence-of-us-and-eu-economies-will-decide-if-a-major-global-recession-is-coming-el-erian","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/22\/convergence-of-us-and-eu-economies-will-decide-if-a-major-global-recession-is-coming-el-erian\/","title":{"rendered":"Convergence of US and EU economies will decide if a major global recession is coming \u2013El Erian"},"content":{"rendered":"

Convergence of US and EU economies will decide if a major global recession is coming<\/strong>, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El Erian tells BBC World Service\u2019s Hardtalk. For Europe there is a 50% chance for a recession next year, but not for the US. The issue here is the divergence of the US economy being on a high, while growth in Europe is slowing down thanks to structural impairment. How the world economy will fare depends on the convergence of these two factors. Will the US be dragged down by the rest of the world, or will Europe get its act together and catch up? El Erian\u2019s comments on the global economy come as US, European and Asian equities took a major hit this week.<\/p>\n

The US Federal Reserve should take responsibility for the impact of monetary tightening on emerging markets<\/strong>, El Erian appears to suggest, using the metaphor that you cannot have a good house in a bad neighborhood. It was the quantitative easing that raised liquidity and drove investors unfamiliar with some EM countries to buy their debt, take on their risks and deploy capital inefficiently. As the Fed now moves to raise interest rates, these investors are pulling out and EMs suffer for it.<\/p>\n

El Erian sees logic in the Trump Administration\u2019s trade war<\/strong>, saying that it tumbled on to a \u2018Reagan moment\u2019: \u201cIf the US is willing to incur the risk of a trade war, it will win every single time.\u201d The aggressive approach is driving America\u2019s trade partners to try to de-escalate trade tensions as they realize they cannot win a trade war with the US.<\/p>\n

You can catch the full interview here <\/strong>(<\/strong>listen, runtime: 23:00<\/strong><\/a>)<\/strong>, or catch his recent appearance on Bloomberg, where he says he doesn\u2019t expect a US recession in the next 18-24 months (watch, runtime 3:30<\/a>).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Convergence of US and EU economies will decide if a major global recession is coming, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El Erian tells BBC World Service\u2019s Hardtalk. For Europe there is a 50% chance for a recession next year, but not for the US. The issue here is the divergence of the US economy being […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[104,72,1887,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-621964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-mohamed-el-erian","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ce431fad-b959-4b0c-a8ab-37d1df448d4c","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[621939],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nConvergence of US and EU economies will decide if a major global recession is coming \u2013El Erian - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/22\/convergence-of-us-and-eu-economies-will-decide-if-a-major-global-recession-is-coming-el-erian\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Convergence of US and EU economies will decide if a major global recession is coming \u2013El Erian\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Convergence of US and EU economies will decide if a major global recession is coming, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El Erian tells BBC World Service\u2019s Hardtalk. 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The Fed \u201cmischaracterized what inflation is and it fell behind,\u201d El Erian\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571412,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/el-erian-on-how-to-set-ourselves-up-for-the-post-covid-world-and-why-that-world-will-be-particularly-challenging-to-navigate\/","url_meta":{"origin":621964,"position":1},"title":"El Erian on how to set ourselves up for the post-covid world \u2014 and why that world will be particularly challenging to navigate","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"El Erian on how to set ourselves up for the post-covid world \u2014 and why that world will be particularly challenging to navigate: In a lecture for Nile University, Allianz economic advisor Mohamed El Erian offered his take on how the global economy came face-to-face with the worst (and most\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Spotlight"","block_context":{"text":"Spotlight","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/spotlight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/103.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575237,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/07\/last-nights-talk-shows-mohamed-el-erian-on-egypts-post-covid-economic-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":621964,"position":2},"title":"Last night\u2019s talk shows: Mohamed El-Erian on Egypt\u2019s post-covid economic recovery","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Celebrations of the 6 October anniversary and Egypt\u2019s 1973 military victory dominated the airwaves last night, with most airing President Abdel Fattah El Sisi\u2019s speech in commemoration of the day: Kelma Akhira\u2019s Lamees El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 1:29), Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 1:45), and Masaa DMC\u2019s Ramy Radwan\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Enterprise+: Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows"","block_context":{"text":"Enterprise+: Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/enterprise-last-nights-talk-shows\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571694,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/20\/forget-the-v-the-us-economic-recovery-is-going-to-be-a-series-of-ws-el-erian\/","url_meta":{"origin":621964,"position":3},"title":"Forget the V: The US economic recovery is going to be a \u201cseries of W\u2019s\u201d -El Erian","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Forget the V: The US economic recovery is going to be a \u201cseries of W\u2019s\u201d -El Erian: The chances of the US economy staging a rapid recovery are slim to none due to the level of uncertainty surrounding the spread of the coronavirus and the development of a vaccine, Mohamed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Worth watching"","block_context":{"text":"Worth watching","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/lifestyle\/worth-watching\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563386,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/29\/us-stocks-hit-new-record-highs\/","url_meta":{"origin":621964,"position":4},"title":"US stocks hit new record highs","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"US stocks hit fresh record highs yesterday putting them on track for one their best first halves ever, while treasury yields dropped as investor concerns about an end to monetary stimulus eased. 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