{"id":621788,"date":"2024-06-03T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/06\/03\/a-look-at-standard-chartereds-crystal-ball\/"},"modified":"2024-06-03T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-06-03T00:00:00","slug":"a-look-at-standard-chartereds-crystal-ball","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/06\/03\/a-look-at-standard-chartereds-crystal-ball\/","title":{"rendered":"A look at Standard Chartered\u2019s crystal ball"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Standard Chartered take on what\u2019s next for the Egyptian economy: <\/strong>The lender\u2019s MENA economist Carla Slim shared what the bank sees in Egypt\u2019s future at a roundtable attended by Enterprise last week. Slim touched on private sector borrowing, inflation and growth predictions, and future mega investments. <\/p>\n

ON INFLATION- <\/p>\n

Could we be looking at another good month for inflation? <\/strong>The bank expects May\u2019s inflation data to come in at 29.8%, marking its third consecutive dip. With inflation on a downward path, the bank sees the central bank easing monetary policy starting the third quarter of the year, specifically during its meeting scheduled for 5 September. \u201cWe expect the CBE to cut rates between 3-5% by the end of 2024,\u201d Slim said.<\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>Inflation cooled for a second consecutive month in April<\/a>, falling to 32.5% on the back of slower food price increases as traders continued to price in a lower exchange rate than in the now-defunct parallel market. <\/p>\n

The bigger picture: <\/strong>The bank sees inflation falling to around 25% by the end of the year and further cooling to around 20% in 2025, Slim added. <\/p>\n

Standing in the way: <\/strong>The rise in food and energy prices as well as the increased liquidity in the market from the Ras El Hekma agreement<\/a> could prevent inflation from falling as forecasted, Slim said. She added that in order for inflation to dip below the 30% and 20% levels, the central bank needs to absorb this excess liquidity in the market. <\/p>\n

The central bank already got the memo: <\/strong>Last month, the central bank pulled a record EGP 1.1 tn in liquidity<\/a> from local banks \u2014 its largest single withdrawal of surplus liquidity from the domestic banking system to date. <\/p>\n

What\u2019s next for the EGP \/ USD exchange rate?<\/strong> Standard Chartered sees the EGP strengthening against the greenback to hit 45 by the end of this year, Slim said. The bank sees the USD trading at EGP 48 next year and at EGP 50 in 2026. <\/p>\n

GROWTH FORECASTS- <\/p>\n

Egypt is looking at growth of 2-2.2% this quarter<\/strong>, Slim said, pointing to instability in the region and its impact on Suez Canal<\/a> and tourism revenues. She also cited elevated interest rates and slashed government spending for dragging the country\u2019s growth forecast down. <\/p>\n

On the bright side: <\/strong>The economy should be on its path to recovery starting the following quarter, Slim added, explaining that full recovery \u2014 with growth rates of 4.5% \u2014 should take two years from now. That growth will be driven by some USD 45 bn in green investments rather than government investments. <\/p>\n

THE PATH TO NORMALCY- <\/p>\n

It will take the private sector two years to go back to borrowing at its normal rate<\/strong>, Slim said, adding that the local private sector will remain \u201cunder pressure\u201d until then due to high interest rates. Despite forecasted rate cuts in the short term, rates will remain too high to encourage private sector borrowing. <\/p>\n

Seeing another mega agreement of Ras El Hekma\u2019s size will depend on <\/strong>how much excess liquidity Gulf nations have and are willing to deploy in Egypt, Slim said. \u201cSaudi Arabia is the largest issuer of debt instruments among emerging markets this year so far, meanwhile Qatar is using its surplus liquidity to reduce its debt level and boost its FX reserves to improve its credit rating,\u201d she said, explaining that Gulf nations don\u2019t always have excess liquidity. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The bank expects the central bank to start cutting rates in 3Q 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":621789,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,182,492],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-621788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-standard-chartered","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a038ca53-49a2-48c9-91bd-0593e2079033","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/6\/186.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"What does Egypt\u2019s future look like in terms of inflation, growth, interest rates?","related_issue":[621783],"teaser":"The bank expects the central bank to start cutting rates in 3Q 2024","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/6\/.eebf6ecd-6c80-4c88-b12c-9531198b1365.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nA look at Standard Chartered\u2019s crystal ball - 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The economists cited the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":545861,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/14\/rasmala-sees-15-inflation-2x-rate-hikes-by-july-and-really-likes-our-carry-trade\/","url_meta":{"origin":621788,"position":1},"title":"Rasmala sees 15% inflation, 2x rate hikes by July \u2014 and really likes our carry trade","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"15% inflation + two more rate hikes by July? That\u2019s the prognosis given by Doug Bitcon, head of credit strategies at Dubai-based investment bank Rasmala, who told Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 4:25) yesterday that rising food prices are a \u201cbig issue\u201d for Egypt as we look to simultaneouly shore up\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/246.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574709,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/20\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-september-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":621788,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to leave rates on hold in September 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE expected to leave rates on hold when it meets this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely keep interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 11 economists and analysts surveyed expect the MPC to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/210.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591925,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":621788,"position":3},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. This is the lowest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570695,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/12\/egypts-inflation-dips-slightly-in-march-to-5-1\/","url_meta":{"origin":621788,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation dips slightly in March to 5.1%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation dips slightly in March to 5.1%: Annual urban inflation cooled to 5.1% in March from 5.3% in February, according to Capmas data out on Thursday. Price growth increased 0.6% on a monthly basis compared to 0.8% during the same month last year, and zero in February. This is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568133,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/20\/hold-your-horses\/","url_meta":{"origin":621788,"position":5},"title":"Hold your horses","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee holds its final meeting of the year on Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 10 economists and analysts we surveyed expect the central bank to hold off on further easing, citing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/325.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/621788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=621788"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/621788\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/621783"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/621789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=621788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=621788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=621788"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=621788"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=621788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}