{"id":621447,"date":"2018-11-08T04:04:50","date_gmt":"2018-11-08T04:04:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/08\/how-much-longer-can-the-banking-system-support-fx-outflows-without-the-central-bank-releasing-some-reserves\/"},"modified":"2018-11-08T04:04:50","modified_gmt":"2018-11-08T04:04:50","slug":"how-much-longer-can-the-banking-system-support-fx-outflows-without-the-central-bank-releasing-some-reserves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/08\/how-much-longer-can-the-banking-system-support-fx-outflows-without-the-central-bank-releasing-some-reserves\/","title":{"rendered":"How much longer can the banking system support FX outflows without the central bank releasing some reserves?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> How much longer can the banking system support FX outflows without the central bank releasing some reserves?<\/strong> We all know that FX has been leaving Egypt has hot money has pulled out of Egypt as the EM Zombie Apocalypse has unfolded. So why have reserves at the Central Bank of Egypt not declined? (For those keeping track at home: Net foreign reserves have steadily inched up from USD 44.1 bn in May 2018 to USD 44.5 bn in September and October.) The answer, Arqaam Capital says, is that the money has come from the nation\u2019s commercial banks.<\/p>\n

The facts: <\/strong>Foreign holdings of T-bills fell in September to 18% of the total buys, a steep decline from a high of 32% in February 2018, according to a recent report from Arqaam Capital. \u201cThese USD outflows have mostly been financed by Egypt\u2019s commercial banks that now have a net foreign liability position of USD 4 bn, equal to 1.4% of total assets and 19.5% of consolidated shareholders\u2019 equity,\u201d said the report.<\/p>\n

The implication: Banks need some FX if they\u2019re to act as shock absorbers in the future. <\/strong>Banks are now \u201cless shock absorbent for a future devaluation\u201d (which Arqaam says is unlikely at this stage, at any rate.) \u201cThe gap between foreign assets and liabilities at the commercial banks still widening,\u201d Jaap Meijer, Michael Malkoun and Aliya El Husseini write. \u201cNet foreign assets stood at EGP -70.7bn in September, down from EGP -41.6bn in August and EGP -21.5bn in July, the first month the number turned negative. This is a significant drop from the EGP 82.5bn net asset position recorded in April 2018. This is merely 1.4% of total assets but has widened to almost 20% of combined shareholders\u2019 equity.\u201d By Arqaam\u2019s calculations, FX reserves would only fall by USD 4bn if the CBE dips in to make the banks whole for the outflows.<\/p>\n

What does this mean for interest rates? <\/strong>If inflation didn\u2019t rise in October, Arqaam expects interest rates to remain on hold until August of next year. If inflation ticked up, the CBE could go for a rate hike of around 100 bps when it meets a week from today. This in turn would help slow down outflows by keeping Egyptian debt attractive to carry traders and \u201ckeep real interest rates in positive territory and protect the EGP \/ USD exchange rate<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

How much longer can the banking system support FX outflows without the central bank releasing some reserves? We all know that FX has been leaving Egypt has hot money has pulled out of Egypt as the EM Zombie Apocalypse has unfolded. So why have reserves at the Central Bank of Egypt not declined? (For those […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":621448,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[1258,204,2082,72,1666,655,2380,1041],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-621447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-arqaam-capital","tag-banking","tag-carry-trade","tag-enterpriseam","tag-exchange-rate","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-speed-round","tag-treasuries","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ce86a6df-02ef-4437-865d-815ec019bb40","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"0f969aef-b5d6-4980-ad4b-d29020bd194b","story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/935.png","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[621440],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nHow much longer can the banking system support FX outflows without the central bank releasing some reserves? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/08\/how-much-longer-can-the-banking-system-support-fx-outflows-without-the-central-bank-releasing-some-reserves\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How much longer can the banking system support FX outflows without the central bank releasing some reserves?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"How much longer can the banking system support FX outflows without the central bank releasing some reserves? 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Reserves fell by some USD 10 bn between March and May\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575278,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/11\/egypts-foreign-reserves-rise-for-fourth-month-running-in-september\/","url_meta":{"origin":621447,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s foreign reserves rise for fourth month running in September","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Foreign reserves inched upwards for the fourth consecutive month in September, rising to USD 38.43 bn from USD 38.37 bn in August, according to central bank figures released on Wednesday. The CBE has been consistently adding to its FX stockpile in the past four months, adding almost USD 2.5 bn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572966,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/15\/egyptian-banks-fx-liquidity-still-vulnerable-as-recovery-from-covid-19-sell-off-will-take-longer-than-2018-em-zombie-apocalypse-fitch\/","url_meta":{"origin":621447,"position":2},"title":"Egyptian banks\u2019 FX liquidity \u201cstill vulnerable\u201d as recovery from covid-19 sell-off will take longer than 2018 EM Zombie Apocalypse -Fitch","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egyptian banks\u2019 FX liquidity \u201cstill vulnerable\u201d \u2014 it\u2019s going to take longer to recover from the covid-19 sell-off than from the 2018 EM Zombie Apocalypse -Fitch: The capital outflows Egypt sustained over the past several months as a result of the fallout from the covid-19 pandemic was \u201cmore severe\u201d and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/112.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574381,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/08\/fx-reserves-rise-slightly-in-august\/","url_meta":{"origin":621447,"position":3},"title":"FX reserves rise slightly in August","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"FX reserves rise slightly in August: Foreign reserves rose in August for the third month running, coming in at USD 38.37 bn from USD 38.31 in July, according to central bankfigures released yesterday. The country has added a little over USD 2 bn to its stockpiles over the past three\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567771,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/07\/fx-reserves-hold-the-line-in-november\/","url_meta":{"origin":621447,"position":4},"title":"FX reserves hold the line in November","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s foreign currency reserves were broadly stable in November, inching up a modest USD 1.8 mn to USD 39.2 bn, according to Central Bank of Egypt figures. October had seen the largest monthly increase in foreign currency reserves this year, with FX holdings shooting up by USD 800 mn. Foreign\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/114.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592499,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/07\/egypts-foreign-reserves-continue-to-rise-in-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":621447,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s foreign reserves continue to rise in July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Foreign reserves inched up to USD 34.88 bn","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/274.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/621447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=621447"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/621447\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/621440"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/621448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=621447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=621447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=621447"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=621447"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=621447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}