{"id":619570,"date":"2024-05-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-07T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/05\/07\/fitch-upgrades-egypts-sovereign-credit-rating-outlook-to-positive\/"},"modified":"2024-05-07T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-05-07T00:00:00","slug":"fitch-upgrades-egypts-sovereign-credit-rating-outlook-to-positive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/05\/07\/fitch-upgrades-egypts-sovereign-credit-rating-outlook-to-positive\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch upgrades Egypt\u2019s sovereign credit rating outlook to positive"},"content":{"rendered":"

Egy<\/strong>pt\u2019s credit outlook is looking a whole lot healthier:<\/strong> Fitch Ratings has revised up its outlook on Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign currency debt to positive from stable, citing a reduction in near-term external financing risks on the back of an influx of foreign capital from the Ras El Hekma agreement, fresh funds from international financial institutions, non-resident holdings of domestic debt doubling since January to USD 35.3 bn in March, the float of the EGP, and interest rate hikes, the credit rating agency said in a statement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Good news for sure, but Fitch isn\u2019t ready just yet to upgrade our rating<\/strong>, affirming its B- rating \u2014 six notches into junk territory.<\/p>\n

\u201cNear-term external financing risks have markedly reduced<\/strong>\u201d on the back of the Ras El Hekma agreement, float of the EGP, and the tightening of monetary policy, according to Fitch. The new post-float normal has also helped further bridge these risks as it has attracted back foreign interest in the local debt market and led to other international financial institutions to pledge additional funding. This was also helped by the fact that non-resident holdings of domestic debt (i.e. debt held by foreign investors or institutions) more than doubled to USD 35.3 bn by March, from USD 16.6 bn at the end of last year. <\/p>\n

Currency exchange confidence has also helped:<\/strong> \u201cFitch has somewhat greater confidence that exchange rate flexibility will be more durable than in the past,\u201d the rating agency wrote \u2014 marking a shift away from the skepticism towards the EGP float<\/a> it held in late March. <\/p>\n

And there\u2019s some promising movement going forward: <\/strong>The Ras El Hekma agreement \u201cunderscores the strength of GCC financial support for Egypt,\u201d according to the rating agency. Government efforts to start reeling in off-budget spending through the new Public Government Budget<\/a> and an EGP 1 tn cap for public investment in the next fiscal year will also reduce debt sustainability risks.<\/p>\n

But we\u2019re not in the all-clear just yet:<\/strong> Loosening fiscal policy, an unmoving current account deficit, weaker commitment to the flexible exchange rate, and\/or an escalation of regional conflict were all listed as potential threats to Egypt\u2019s future credit rating, Fitch wrote. <\/p>\n

Finance Ministry reax:<\/strong> \u201cThe Egyptian economy has gradually begun to restore the confidence of international ranking institutions [...] by adopting reformative, advanced, integrated and sustainable economic policies,\u201d said Finance Minister Mohamed Maait in a statement<\/a>. \u201cThe positive financial indicators during the past nine months reflect the efforts made to achieve financial discipline in light of global crises,\u201d added Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk.<\/p>\n

OTHER KEY KEY INDICATORS TO WATCH OUT FOR- <\/p>\n

#1- Inflation: <\/strong>Fitch projects that inflation will fall from 33.4% y-o-y in March to 12.3% y-o-y by June 2025.<\/p>\n

#2- GDP: <\/strong>Fitch sees growth in the current fiscal year slowing 0.7 percentage points to 3.1% before picking up to 4.7% in the next fiscal year thanks to an uptick in business confidence, FDI remittances, and real incomes.<\/p>\n

#3- Foreign currency reserves: <\/strong>Fitch expects foreign currency reserves to reach USD 49.7 bn in the current fiscal year and USD 53.3 bn in the next.<\/p>\n

#4- Fiscal deficit:<\/strong> The credit ratings agency expects the general government deficit to narrow by 0.3 percentage points to 5.5% of GDP in the current fiscal year, before widening above the government's target of 7.3% to 8.8% of GDP in the next fiscal year owing to high debt servicing costs and no big ticket Ras El Hekma type projects in the pipeline.<\/p>\n

#5- Debt interest costs: <\/strong>The debt interest-to-revenue ratio is set to peak at around 68% in the next fiscal year, before falling to a still-high 45% by the fiscal year 2027-28. <\/p>\n

The international press also took notice of the upgrade: <\/strong>Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Ras El Hekma agreement and foreign capital inflows since March have done a lot to restore confidence in Egypt\u2019s creditworthiness<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":619571,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[7106,104,72,8565],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-619570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"70ab4109-b896-4fb8-9620-7d7ca7246084","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/5\/330.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"Fitch upgrades Egypt\u2019s credit rating","full_issue_title":"Fitch upgrades Egypt\u2019s sovereign credit rating outlook to positive","related_issue":[619565],"teaser":"The Ras El Hekma agreement and foreign capital inflows since March have done a lot to restore confidence in Egypt\u2019s creditworthiness","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/5\/.0fee2094-06e2-4be3-a240-1da3d2824524.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nFitch upgrades Egypt\u2019s sovereign credit rating outlook to positive - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/05\/07\/fitch-upgrades-egypts-sovereign-credit-rating-outlook-to-positive\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fitch upgrades Egypt\u2019s sovereign 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The outlook is supported by the country\u2019s track record of fiscal and economic reforms, which authorities continued to enact, and a large economy, \u201cwhich has demonstrated stability and resilience through the global health crisis,\u201d the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/440.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":617110,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/17\/fitch-wants-to-see-signs-of-sustained-progress-before-upgrading-egypts-credit-rating\/","url_meta":{"origin":619570,"position":3},"title":"Fitch wants to see signs of sustained progress before upgrading Egypt\u2019s credit rating","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 March 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Recent developments were already \u201cbaked\u201d into Egypt\u2019s current rating and outlook","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/3\/1358.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593361,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/26\/fitch-affirms-egypts-long-term-fx-issuer-default-rating-at-b-with-a-stable-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":619570,"position":4},"title":"Fitch affirms Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at B+ with a stable outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a \u2018stable\u2019 outlook. The agency said that Egypt\u2019s rating affirmation is supported by \u201ca recent track record of economic and fiscal reforms, and improvements to macroeconomic stability and external finances.\u201d On the flipside, Egypt\u2019s \u201cstill large fiscal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/178.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556371,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/24\/fitch-ratings-affirms-egypts-long-term-fx-issuer-default-rating-at-b-outlook-stable\/","url_meta":{"origin":619570,"position":5},"title":"Fitch Ratings affirms Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at B+; outlook stable","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at \u2018B+\u2019 with a stable outlook on Wednesday. The rating is supported by Egypt\u2019s \u201crecent track record of fiscal and economic reforms,\u201d coupled with its large economy, which has remained stable and resilient through the global health crisis, as \u201ccontinued\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/239.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619570","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=619570"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619570\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/619565"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/619571"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=619570"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=619570"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=619570"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=619570"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=619570"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}