{"id":619150,"date":"2024-04-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/04\/28\/goldman-sachs-forecasts-2-cbe-interest-rate-cut-in-may\/"},"modified":"2024-04-28T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-04-28T00:00:00","slug":"goldman-sachs-forecasts-2-cbe-interest-rate-cut-in-may","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/04\/28\/goldman-sachs-forecasts-2-cbe-interest-rate-cut-in-may\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs forecasts 2% CBE interest rate cut in May"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends. <\/strong>It may not just be the weather that\u2019s warming up in Egypt at the moment, with news that the country\u2019s IPO winter may soon be over. We\u2019ve got news of Act Financial penciling in 2Q 2024 for an IPO after getting the green light from the EGX, another USD 820 mn from the IMF arriving in June, and so much more in the issue today.<\/p>\n

HAPPENING TODAY- <\/p>\n

<\/a> #1- Several ministers are in Riyadh for a World Economic Forum meeting:<\/strong> Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Planning Minister Hala El Said, and Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry will be attending a two-day event in Riyadh organized by the World Economic Forum, according to several government statements (here<\/a>, here<\/a> and here<\/a>). <\/p>\n

Entitled the <\/strong>Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth and Energy for<\/a><\/strong>Development<\/a><\/strong>, the event will gather heads of state and senior officials from the public and private sectors to discuss solutions to economic, environmental and humanitarian challenges. <\/p>\n

What to watch out for: <\/strong>El Said will take part in a meeting on What Homeland Economics<\/a>Means for Trade<\/a> at 11:30 am Riyadh time later today, looking into how domestic politics and geopolitical tensions affect trade policy. Tomorrow morning, Madbouly will speak at a Briefing on the Gaza Crisis<\/a> and later in the day Shoukry will take to the stage alongside his Saudi counterpart and columnist Thomas Friedman to speak about the Middle East Under Stress<\/a> on Monday afternoon. <\/p>\n

<\/a> #2- Car import scheme draws to a close:<\/strong> Expats have until the end of today to register forthe expat car-for-FX scheme, according to a statement<\/a> from the Emigration Ministry. <\/p>\n

By the numbers: <\/strong>As of earlier this month,some 490k Egyptian expats had registered<\/a> in the initiative and some USD 750 mn had been transferred to the government under the scheme, the Finance Ministry said. Around 27k cars have entered the country under the initiative. The two phases of the scheme had brought in USD 1.7 bn<\/a> by February, within reaching distance of the Finance Minister\u2019s USD 2 bn goal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

INTERESTED?<\/strong> You can sign up for the initiative through the government\u2019s app on Google Play<\/a> and the App Store<\/a>.<\/p>\n

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-<\/p>\n

<\/a> El Sisi to touchdown in Ankara: <\/strong>President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is slated to visit theTurkish capital this week at the invitation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation and a ceasefire in Gaza, Asharq News<\/a> reports, citing Egyptian sources and a Turkish presidential source. The visit will see the pair head the first high-level strategic cooperation council meeting between the two countries.<\/p>\n

What can we expect: <\/strong>The two sides will likely ink a number of cooperation agreements during the council, the Turkish source said. <\/p>\n

Remember:<\/strong> The anticipated visit comes on the heels of Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry\u2019s meeting<\/a> with Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Istanbul last week. Relations between Cairo and Ankarahave been warming after a decade of tense relations, with President Erdogan visiting Cairo for the first time since 2012<\/a> this February. <\/p>\n

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Get Enterprise<\/b> daily <\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n

Subscribe here<\/a> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

WATCH THIS SPACE-<\/p>\n

<\/a> #1- Goldm<\/strong>an Sachs sees CBE trimming rates by 2% in May on the back of easing inflation: <\/strong>Goldman Sachs expects the Central Bank of Egypt to cut rates by 200 bps at its next policy meeting in May, according to a research note by the US-based investment bank seen by Enterprise. The prediction is based on the Goldman Sachs\u2019 forecast that inflation will fall to 20% by the end of the calendar year, down from 33.3% y-o-y recorded for March<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Remember:<\/strong> The bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet<\/a> on Thursday, 23 May to review interest rates. The MPC delivered a jumbo 600 bps rate hike<\/a> at its last meeting in March alongside the EGP float.<\/p>\n

#2-<\/strong>Progress on the tax policy framework? <\/strong>Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly and Finance Minister Mohamed Maait discussed a proposed tax policy document for 2024-2030 that will be used to inform and provide clarity to businesses, investors, and society at large on the country\u2019s targets, policies, and plans for taxation over the next six years, a cabinet statement<\/a> reads. The document aims to support individuals as they build their investment strategies, create forecasts, financial models, and feasibility studies with a greater degree of tax certainty.<\/p>\n

The gov\u2019t is keen on avoiding tax hikes: <\/strong>The document will lay out ways in which the government can increase the effectiveness and management of tax policies rather than looking to apply new taxes or increase current taxes. <\/p>\n

ATTENTION, EGYPT INVESTORS-<\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/p>\n

<\/a> Foreign investors are falling in love with Egypt again\u2026<\/strong> Foreign investors we speak with (debt, equity, and strategic alike) have a growing appetite for Egypt. They\u2019re buying into local debt, eyeing promising shares, and committing bns of USD to both new ventures here and the growth of their existing businesses. They like the Egypt story that\u2019s taking shape after the float of the EGP, and its competitive advantages are clear to many of them: It\u2019s a massive consumer opportunity and a regional export hub of tomorrow.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Enterprise Optimism Forum 2024 will do exactly what it says on the tin: <\/strong>Spark conversations about a future that we think is much brighter than so many in our community feel right now. Think of it as much-needed shock therapy combined with an early, actionable roadmap for those of us who are \u201clong Egypt.\u201d<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll be talking with you about the agenda over the coming couple of weeks. <\/strong>It features speakers from Egypt and abroad who are future-proofing their businesses and angling to capture tomorrow\u2019s opportunities \u2014 and who aren\u2019t afraid to answer some tough questions. <\/p>\n

*** Interested in attending? <\/strong>Tap or click here<\/a><\/strong> to let us know.<\/strong> Seating is limited.<\/p>\n

DATA POINT-<\/p>\n

#1 Egypt has issued USD 71.6 bn worth of debt <\/strong>instruments since the beginning of the year<\/strong>, marking a 57% y-o-y increase, writes Asharq Business<\/a>, citing calculations by Bloomberg. The value of EGP-denominated debt sold during the period reached its highest point in over ten years at USD 69.2 bn, rising 64% y-o-y.<\/p>\n

#2-<\/strong>Egypt welcomes more tourists<\/strong> in 1Q 2024:<\/strong> The number of tourists visiting Egypt has increased 3-4% y-o-y in the first quarter of the year, according to a Tourism Ministry statement<\/a>. Hotel occupancy in tourist cities reached 54.8% during the quarter, up 8% y-o-y, the ministry said in a separate statement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

#3- Gold imports under the <\/strong>customs-exemptions initiative<\/a><\/strong> rose to 4.6 tons over the<\/strong> last year<\/strong>, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Asharq Business<\/a>. The initiative, which kickstarted last May and expires 10 May this year, has allowed gold to be brought into Egypt tax-free in a bid to stabilize gold prices. <\/p>\n

No word yet on a possible extension: <\/strong>The government hasn\u2019t yet decided whether the initiative will be extended once it expires, Maait told the outlet. <\/p>\n

PSA-<\/p>\n

Smoke price hikes:<\/strong> Tobacco distributor JTI-Nakhla has raised the prices of cigarettes by 3-10%, according to a statement (pdf)<\/a> from the company. The price of its popular unflavored Winston brand is up 10% to EGP 55, while a pack of unflavored Camel cigarettes is up 5% to EGP 60 and a pack of the company\u2019s flavored Camel Activate is up only 3% to EGP 62.<\/p>\n

JTI is the latest tobacco distributor to hike its prices<\/strong> after the government approved a decision allowing tobacco distributors to hike their prices by up to 12% earlier this month<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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WEATHER- <\/strong>It\u2019s going to be a warm and sunny day in Cairo today, with a high of 31\u00b0C and a low of 18\u00b0C, according to our favorite weather app.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a whole lot cooler in Alexandria<\/strong>, with a high of 24\u00b0C and a low of 17\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

WAR WATCH- <\/p>\n

Egyptian offi<\/strong>cials touch down in Israel for ceasefire talks: <\/strong>A high-level Egyptian delegation met with Israeli officials on Friday to push for a ceasefire in Gaza and avert an Israeli offensive on Rafah, Reuters<\/a> reports. While Israel made no new proposals, it was willing to consider Egypt\u2019s proposal for Hamas\u2019 release of 33 hostages in exchange for a limited truce, an Egyptian official told the outlet. Should an agreement be reached, the pause would be \u201cdefinitely less than six weeks,\u201d the official anticipated.<\/p>\n

Israel delivers an ultimatum:<\/strong> Israeli officials told the delegation that it would give negotiations \u201cone last chance\u201d before it moves forward with its planned ground invasion of Rafah, Axios<\/a> reports, citing two unnamed senior Israeli officials.<\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a mixed bag on global front pages this morning: <\/strong>No single story hold sway, as is often the case on Sunday mornings<\/p>\n

The US Federal Reserve\u2019s ongoing bid to tame inflation is making it more difficult <\/strong>for the European Central Bank and Bank of England to start cutting interest rates, the Financial Times<\/a> warns. Policymakers aren\u2019t being explicit about it, but investors are already pricing-in the idea that rate cuts will be delayed, futures suggest. At the same time, a key index that the US Fed relies on to gauge inflation says that American consumers are borrowing more and dipping into their savings to keep spending, CNBC<\/a> notes, raising the odds the Fed will slow-walk cuts.<\/p>\n

Why it matters now: <\/strong>The Fed\u2019s open markets committee will meet Tuesday and Wednesday. Pundits are parsing Jay Powell\u2019s every gesture for a suggestion as to when rate cuts might begin. Few now expect action before fall.<\/p>\n

MEANWHILE- Pro-Palestine protests on US university campuses <\/strong>\u2014 and heavy-handed reactions by police and university officials \u2014 are getting plenty of ink around the world<\/strong>. The story is everywhere from the Wall Street Journal<\/a> to the Guardian<\/a>, while the New York Times<\/a> notes that Columbia University\u2019s senate has called for an investigation into Minouche Shafik, the university\u2019s Egypt-born president.<\/p>\n

ALSO making headlines: <\/strong>Wall Street is getting its head around a US ban on non-compete<\/a>agreements<\/a> \u2014 and shares of both Google parent company Alphabet and Microsoft advanced<\/a> after the companies reported strong first-quarter results. Google declared its first-ever dividend<\/a> and saw strong AI-based Google Workspace sales, while Microsoft reported improved cloud sales.<\/p>\n

AND-<\/strong> Europe is worried about Chinese spies<\/a> | Apple is talking to OpenAI and Google<\/a> about using their AI tech on its iPhone.<\/p>\n

ENTERPRISE IS LOOKING FOR SMART, TALENTED PEOPLE of all backgrounds to help us build some very cool new things.<\/strong> Enterprise \u2014 the essential morning read on all the important news shaping business and the economy in Egypt and the region \u2014 is looking for writers, reporters and editors to help us build out new publications. <\/p>\n

NEVER WORKED IN A NEWSROOM BEFORE?<\/strong> We have the Enterprise Business Writing Development Program. Whether you are a recent graduate, an industry vet, or looking to switch careers, the Enterprise Business Writing Development Program will give you the tools you need to tell the most important stories to our audience of C-suite officials, government ministers, diplomats, financiers, investors and entrepreneurs.<\/p>\n

Not an internship program \u2014 a career:<\/strong> The three-month program will see full-time, paid participants take part in workshops and lectures from veteran business journalists on subject matter knowledge, while also working on constructing and filing Enterprise stories that will run on any of our publications. Those who have successfully completed the program, will then be given long-term job offers.<\/p>\n

Apply directly to jobs@enterprisemea.com and mention \u201cwriting development program\u201d<\/strong> in your subject line.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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The IMF will weigh in on the question everybody\u2019s been asking for months: Is the world economy sliding into\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546686,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/25\/this-morning-the-us-is-reportedly-mediating-an-agreement-over-tiran-sanafir-rania-al-mashat-ghada-waly-speak-at-davos-today\/","url_meta":{"origin":619150,"position":1},"title":"THIS MORNING: The US is reportedly mediating an agreement over Tiran + Sanafir; Rania Al Mashat + Ghada Waly speak at Davos today","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, friends. We\u2019re past hump day, but there\u2019s lots of work in sight before we can declare victory and slide into the weekend. SIGN OF THE TIMES #1- The EGP has eased almost 2% against the greenback over the past two days. The USD was changing hands at EGP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566990,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/09\/what-were-tracking-on-9-january-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":619150,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 9 January 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Chances of a regional conflagration occurring in the first week-and-a-half of the new decade appeared to go down overnight as both sides took a breath. US President Donald Trump yesterday delivered a relatively conciliatory statement in response to Iran\u2019s missile strikes. Although he opened declared that Iran will never have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594817,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/09\/what-were-tracking-on-9-september-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":619150,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 9 September 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s shaping up to be an eventful few days, which could see the pace of the news cycle pick up after a bout of humdrum news. The key news trigger this week: The Central Bank of Egypt and Capmas will release August\u2019s inflation figures on Tuesday. 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