{"id":618719,"date":"2024-04-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/04\/18\/deficits-in-the-us-china-will-hurt-global-economy\/"},"modified":"2024-04-18T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T00:00:00","slug":"deficits-in-the-us-china-will-hurt-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/04\/18\/deficits-in-the-us-china-will-hurt-global-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Deficits in the US, China will hurt global economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Careful now, big spenders<\/strong>: <\/strong>The US and China need to implement policies to address the imbalance between spending and revenues, which is adding to inflationary pressures and posing significant risks to the global economy, the IMF has warned in its latest Fiscal Monitor (pdf)<\/a> out yesterday. Rampant spending from the world\u2019s two largest economies could \u201chave profound effects for the global economy and pose significant risks for baseline fiscal projections in other economies,\u201d the Fund said.<\/p>\n

How bad is it?<\/strong> The US will record a fiscal deficit of 7.1% in 2025, over three times the 2% average clocked in by other advanced economies, while China will record a deficit over twice the average of other EMs with 7.6%, the IMF said. The shortfall comes as both countries look set to face challenges ahead, with China dealing with weak domestic demand and a real estate crisis<\/a> and the US entering a key year for fiscal policy in an election year that will see candidates pledging further tax cuts and increased state spending.<\/p>\n

When the US spends, EMs pay:<\/strong> \u201cLarge and sudden increases\u201d in US borrowing costs will likely send global government bond yields soaring and exchange rates into murky waters in emerging markets and developing economies, the IMF said. \u201cA 1 percentage point spike in US rates results in a 90 basis point rise in other advanced economies and an increase in EMs of 1 percentage point,\u201d according to the Financial Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n

THE MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asian markets are little changed in early trading this morning <\/strong>after Wall Street posted on Wednesday its first four-day string of losing days since the start of the year. The Kospi is the sole standout, up a bit more than 1.4% at dispatch time this morning. European and US equities futures were mostly unchanged overnight. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a> <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29,668<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.9% (YTD: +19.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.44<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.58<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.45<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.55<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates CBE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,466<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +4.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,165<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: -4.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,173<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +2.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,022<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: +5.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,848<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +1.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,914<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +8.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 87.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 1.72<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,380.80<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 61,260.80<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-4.3% (YTD: +44.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.9% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 4.8 bn (4.2% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 19.2% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Orascom Development Egypt (+5.7%), Palm Hills Developments (+5.2%) and Elsewedy Electric (+3.6%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Abu Qir Fertilizers (-1.8%), Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (-1.7%) and Edita (-0.9%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The US will record a fiscal deficit of 7.1% in 2025, over three times the 2% average clocked in by other advanced economies<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":618720,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[116,7106,72,119,1318,122,117],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-618719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-china","tag-debt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-planet-finance","tag-us","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"dd9099f9-d5b6-45ba-a6f0-ce259ed5c801","order":"15","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/4\/1245.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Deficits in the US, China will hurt global economy","related_issue":[618693],"teaser":"The US will record a fiscal deficit of 7.1% in 2025, over three times the 2% average clocked in by other advanced economies","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/4\/.d3cf44c2-6b0d-4471-beae-1c92cb09b13b.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nDeficits in the US, China will hurt global economy - 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Figures in the Fund\u2019s latest Fiscal Monitor Report (pdf) suggest that the outlook for Egypt\u2019s fiscal position has improved over the past\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/78.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570803,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/15\/the-coronavirus-will-trigger-the-worst-global-recession-since-the-great-depression-in-mena-only-egypts-economy-will-grow-this-year-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":618719,"position":1},"title":"The coronavirus will trigger the worst global recession since the Great Depression; in MENA, only Egypt\u2019s economy will grow this year \u2013IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The coronavirus will trigger the worst global recession since the Great Depression, the IMF predicts: The world is facing its greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression as output plummets at a record pace in response to the \u201cGreat Lockdown\u201d put in place to contain covid-19, the IMF warned yesterday.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/138.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565117,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/21\/recovery-may-not-trickle-down-to-ems-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":618719,"position":2},"title":"Recovery may not trickle down to EMs -IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF may update its next World Economic Outlook to reflect signs of a stronger global economic recovery than the 5.5% GDP growth it forecast in January, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Geoffrey Okamoto said in a speech to the China Development Forum, according to Reuters. Okamoto appears to be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554906,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/21\/are-we-entering-the-era-of-post-pandemic-austerity\/","url_meta":{"origin":618719,"position":3},"title":"Are we entering the era of post-pandemic austerity?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 November 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Governments are widely scaling back massive fiscal programs that had helped push economies through covid \u2014 a trend that, contrary to popular belief, could potentially have more impact on the global economy than monetary policy tightening by central banks, says Bloomberg. Together, governments plugged in an amount equal to 2.5%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/11\/189.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561429,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/07\/imf-more-upbeat-on-global-growth-says-covid-end-increasingly-visible\/","url_meta":{"origin":618719,"position":4},"title":"IMF more upbeat on global growth, says covid-end \u201cincreasingly visible\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF sees the global economy growing this year at a faster pace than previously expected, saying in its updated World Economic Outlook that it now expects global growth to come in at 6% \u2014 0.5 percentage points higher than the 5.5% growth it had penciled in three months ago\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/60.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546048,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/26\/imf-expects-slimmer-narrowing-of-egypts-budget-deficit-this-fiscal-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":618719,"position":5},"title":"IMF expects slimmer narrowing of Egypt\u2019s budget deficit this fiscal year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit is expected to narrow to 6.8% by the end of the current fiscal year, the IMF said in its latest Fiscal Monitor Report (pdf). 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