{"id":618540,"date":"2024-04-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/04\/16\/world-bank-cuts-egypts-gdp-growth-for-fy-2023-24-to-2-8\/"},"modified":"2024-04-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T00:00:00","slug":"world-bank-cuts-egypts-gdp-growth-for-fy-2023-24-to-2-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/04\/16\/world-bank-cuts-egypts-gdp-growth-for-fy-2023-24-to-2-8\/","title":{"rendered":"World Bank cuts Egypt\u2019s GDP growth for FY 2023\/24 to 2.8%"},"content":{"rendered":"

The World Bank has downgraded our growth outlook for the current fiscal year<\/strong> yet again: <\/strong>The international lender has penciled in growth slowing to 2.8% in the state\u2019s FY 2023-24 \u2014 a 0.7 percentage point drop from its previous forecast in January and a whole 1.0 percentage point drop from the previous fiscal year \u2014 it said in its latest MENA Economic Update (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The rationale: <\/strong>The bank pointed to our \u201csluggish industrial sector performance\u201d and high inflation in its assessment of the country\u2019s growth trajectory. The report also highlighted that while the war on Gaza has increased economic uncertainty across the region, \u201cEgypt could suffer the largest fiscal effects from the combined effects of the Suez Canal crisis and the conflict in the Middle East, as a result of lower fiscal revenues and tourism receipts.\u201d<\/p>\n

And it could get worse: <\/strong>The downgraded projections \u201cassume that the conflict in the Middle East will not expand,\u201d the report writes, warning that \u201cIf fighting were to worsen or continue for a protracted period,\u201d Egypt would face an even greater strain on its FX revenues from tourism and the Suez Canal.<\/p>\n

ICYMI: <\/strong>This is the second time already this year that the bank has lowered our growth outlook for the fiscal year. Growth projections were scaled back<\/a> 0.2 percentage points to 3.5% at the start of the year on the back of ongoing economic challenges and the risk of a heightened regional conflict intensifying \u201cpressures on external accounts through implications on tourism, remittances, and oil trade balance\u201d and exacerbating \u201cthe inflation problem, eroding households\u2019 purchasing power and constraining activity in the private sector.\u201d<\/p>\n

But on the plus side: <\/strong>The lender now expects the country\u2019s economic growth to pick up next year to 4.2% in the next fiscal year \u2014 in line with the Madbouly government\u2019s forecast<\/a> \u2014 a 0.3 percentage point upward revision on its previous outlook.<\/p>\n

The bank\u2019s forecast is significantly lower than what the government and other<\/strong> institutions are predicting:<\/strong> The Madbouly government sees the economy growing at a 3.5% clip<\/a> in the fiscal year ending June 2024, along with<\/a> S&P Global Ratings. The IMF revised its growth outlook downwards to 3.0% in January<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The World Bank sees our budget deficit widening to 6.5% in 2024, up from 6% in 2023<\/strong>, \u201cas tax revenue shrinks from a slowing economy while interest payments rise because of a devalued currency and monetary tightening.\u201d<\/p>\n

But across the region, growth is expected to rebound<\/strong>, with the World Bank forecasting GDP growth accelerating to pre-pandemic levels of 2.7%, up from 1.9% in 2023. GCC economies are expected to see an even bigger rebound, with growth expected to increase to 2.8% in 2024<\/strong>, up 0.9% the year before, as oil production cuts are phased out and non-oil sectors benefit from ongoing diversification efforts.<\/p>\n

** You can check out our full rundown of the report\u2019s updated projections for Saudi Arabia on <\/strong>EnterpriseKSA<\/a><\/strong> and for the United Arab Emirates on<\/strong><\/a><\/strong>EnterpriseUAE<\/a><\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The bank\u2019s forecast is a 0.7 percentage point downward revision from its last assessment<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":618541,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,115,72,348,8520,321],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-618540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-regional-economy","tag-world-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9b9e5252-4c7e-4b34-808c-fb4aa5ef7989","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/4\/963.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"World Bank cuts Egypt\u2019s GDP growth for FY 2023\/24 to 2.8%","related_issue":[618535],"teaser":"The bank\u2019s forecast is a 0.7 percentage point downward revision from its last assessment","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/4\/.f915ff36-7e66-4186-9b46-dbcd241f3264.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nWorld Bank cuts Egypt\u2019s GDP growth for FY 2023\/24 to 2.8% - 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This is a downwards revision from the 3.3% growth economists predicted in the last poll the newswire conducted in October. The forecast sits at the lower end of the Finance Ministry\u2019s most recent GDP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/343.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":584956,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/09\/world-bank-downgrades-growth-forecasts-for-egypt-and-the-region-as-inflation-bites\/","url_meta":{"origin":618540,"position":2},"title":"World Bank downgrades growth forecasts for Egypt and the region as inflation bites","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 April 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Lender cuts GDP growth forecast from 4.8% to 4.0% in FY 2022-2023","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/329.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":590561,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/24\/the-economy-grew-4-2-in-fy-2022-23-preliminary-figures-show\/","url_meta":{"origin":618540,"position":3},"title":"The economy grew 4.2% in FY 2022-23, preliminary figures show","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth is expected to remain at 4.2% this year, according to a Reuters poll","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/865.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586788,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/17\/ebrd-downgrades-egypt-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":618540,"position":4},"title":"EBRD downgrades Egypt growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"EBRD forecasts growth slowing to 4% for FY 2022-23","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/963.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556369,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/24\/egyptian-economy-to-grow-5-1-this-fiscal-year-reuters-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":618540,"position":5},"title":"Egyptian economy to grow 5.1% this fiscal year -Reuters poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth of the Egyptian economy will continue to accelerate in FY 2021-2022, expanding at a 5.1% clip before climbing to 5.5% in the following two years as the country continues to recover from the covid-19 pandemic, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. The economy grew 3.3% in FY 2020-2021,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/238.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/618540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=618540"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/618540\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/618535"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/618541"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=618540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=618540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=618540"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=618540"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=618540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}