{"id":617110,"date":"2024-03-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/17\/fitch-wants-to-see-signs-of-sustained-progress-before-upgrading-egypts-credit-rating\/"},"modified":"2024-03-17T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-17T00:00:00","slug":"fitch-wants-to-see-signs-of-sustained-progress-before-upgrading-egypts-credit-rating","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/17\/fitch-wants-to-see-signs-of-sustained-progress-before-upgrading-egypts-credit-rating\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch wants to see signs of sustained progress before upgrading Egypt\u2019s credit rating"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fitch doesn\u2019t see a credit rating upgrade in the cards just yet:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s recent string of positive economic developments \u2014 the USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma agreement<\/a>, our expanded USD 8 bn IMF program<\/a>, and the central bank\u2019s decision to float the EGP<\/a> that seems so far to be going to plan \u2014 are not enough for Fitch Ratings to upgrade the country\u2019s sovereign credit rating or outlook, the agency\u2019s head of Middle East and Africa sovereigns Toby Iles told Reuters<\/a>. The developments were \u201calready sort of baked into the rating and its stable outlook,\u201d Iles said.<\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>The credit rating agency in November<\/a> cut our credit rating to B- from B and revised its outlook to stable from negative.<\/p>\n

Fitch is concerned about the sustainability of our reforms: <\/strong>\u201cTo think about positive rating action, a reduction in external vulnerabilities was one thing we identified. And I think we certainly have that in the near term. It's the question of whether vulnerabilities re-emerge,\u201d Iles told the newswire.<\/p>\n

Fitch seems skeptical about the float:<\/strong> Recent EGP gains could quickly be wiped out \u2014 as was the case following the 2016 devaluation \u2014 if the country doesn\u2019t see a durable move towards a flexible exchange rate regime, Iles explained. \u201cSome sign that it's actually floating, that would clearly be positive, because it means they have this way of absorbing shocks which they have not had before,\u201d Iles said.<\/p>\n

Debt affordability is also a sticking point:<\/strong> The country\u2019s debt trajectory is \"quite severe\u201d with the debt-to-GDP ratio close to 100%<\/a> and the interest cost to government revenue nearing 50%, he noted, adding that curbing inflation could help lower interest rates and, in turn, the government\u2019s debt costs. <\/p>\n

On the bright side:<\/strong> The central bank\u2019s decision to float the EGP \u201cwill have quite a powerful impact on remittances\u201d and could help offset financial losses triggered by the war on Gaza, he said.<\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>Remittances from Egyptian expats abroad have reportedly increased 10-fold<\/a> since the float of the EGP earlier this month after dipping 30% y-o-y to USD 22 bn in 2023<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The verdict will be out in a couple of months: <\/strong>Fitch will review the country\u2019s rating in May, which Iles reckons is too early to judge the trajectory of Egypt\u2019s public finances.<\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s is a lot more optimistic:<\/strong> Fitch\u2019s view stands in contrast to Moody\u2019s, which earlier this month upgraded Egypt\u2019s outlook to positive<\/a> from negative on expectations that FX flows from the Ras El Hekma agreement will cover the country\u2019s external financing gap until the fiscal year 2025-2026 and strengthen \u201cmacroeconomic rebalancing.\u201d Moody\u2019s also upgraded the long-term deposit ratings outlook of five local banks to positive<\/a> from negative a few days later.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recent developments were already \u201cbaked\u201d into Egypt\u2019s current rating and outlook<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":617111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,905,1324],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-617110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-moodys","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"21bfbec7-5ecf-48b1-b745-17387affedfc","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/3\/1358.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Fitch wants to see signs of sustained progress before upgrading Egypt\u2019s credit rating","related_issue":[617103],"teaser":"Recent developments were already \u201cbaked\u201d into Egypt\u2019s current rating and outlook","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/3\/.c10c4b3e-59ee-4794-bb93-93de9a053ca1.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nFitch wants to see signs of sustained progress before upgrading Egypt\u2019s credit rating - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/17\/fitch-wants-to-see-signs-of-sustained-progress-before-upgrading-egypts-credit-rating\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fitch wants to see signs of sustained progress before upgrading Egypt\u2019s credit 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"Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/273.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578949,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/19\/fitch-ratings-is-positive-on-imf-agreement-egp-float-but\/","url_meta":{"origin":617110,"position":2},"title":"Fitch Ratings is positive on IMF agreement, EGP float, but\u2026","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF pact, EGP flexibility get the thumbs up from Fitch: Our USD 3 bn loan agreement with the IMF and the move to a permanently flexible exchange rate regime have garnered praise in a note from Fitch Ratings. The catch: Our sovereign debt remains at risk of a downgrade if\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/327.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556371,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/24\/fitch-ratings-affirms-egypts-long-term-fx-issuer-default-rating-at-b-outlook-stable\/","url_meta":{"origin":617110,"position":3},"title":"Fitch Ratings affirms Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at B+; outlook stable","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at \u2018B+\u2019 with a stable outlook on Wednesday. The rating is supported by Egypt\u2019s \u201crecent track record of fiscal and economic reforms,\u201d coupled with its large economy, which has remained stable and resilient through the global health crisis, as \u201ccontinued\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/239.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546046,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/26\/sp-fitch-ratings-affirm-credit-rating-at-bb-b-say-outlook-stable-despite-russia-ukraine-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":617110,"position":4},"title":"S&P, Fitch ratings affirm credit rating at BB, B+, say outlook stable despite Russia-Ukraine war","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P and Fitch Ratings have both affirmed Egypt\u2019s BB and B+ credit ratings with a stable outlook, despite surging food and energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine putting pressure on the country\u2019s finances, the two ratings agencies said last week (here and here). The agencies attributed their affirmed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/351.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577097,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/09\/fitch-cuts-outlook-on-egypt-to-negative-affirms-b-rating\/","url_meta":{"origin":617110,"position":5},"title":"Fitch cuts outlook on Egypt to negative, affirms B+ rating","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has cut its outlook on Egyptian debt from \u201cstable\u201d to \u201cnegative\u201d due to \u201cdeterioration\u201d in the country\u2019s external liquidity position, it said yesterday. The rating agency maintained Egypt\u2019s B+ rating on robust economic growth and \u201cstrong international support\u201d from Gulf allies and multilateral partners but warned that it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/154.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/617110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=617110"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/617110\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/617103"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/617111"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=617110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=617110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=617110"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=617110"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=617110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}