{"id":617108,"date":"2024-03-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/17\/new-forecasts-from-standard-chartered-goldman-sachs-and-fitch\/"},"modified":"2024-03-17T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-17T00:00:00","slug":"new-forecasts-from-standard-chartered-goldman-sachs-and-fitch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/17\/new-forecasts-from-standard-chartered-goldman-sachs-and-fitch\/","title":{"rendered":"New forecasts from Standard Chartered, Goldman Sachs, and Fitch"},"content":{"rendered":"

What does the Egyptian economy look like post float? <\/strong>Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered, and Fitch all weighed in over the weekend on the future of the economy, updating their forecasts and predictions of where they see the EGP \/ USD exchange rate settling, FX inflows, and FX liquidity. <\/p>\n

In context: <\/strong>The fresh forecasts came one week after the central bank moved forward with highly-anticipated reforms \u2014 floating the EGP and hiking rates by 600 bps \u2014 in efforts to boost FX liquidity in the banking system, clamp down on black market trade, and reignite investor confidence in the economy. <\/p>\n

#1- Significant FX inflows around the corner:<\/strong> Egypt has delivered a \u201clong-awaited inflection point\u201d that is expected to attract portfolio inflows of over USD 50 bn, Standard Chartered MENA economist Carla Slim said in an interview with Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 4:13<\/a>). The British multinational lender expects forthcoming Saudi investments of around USD 5 bn to flow into the country as the Ras El Hekma agreement becomes a \u201ctemplate\u201d for further investments.<\/p>\n

Inflows to peak this year? <\/strong>Goldman Sachs expects foreign direct investment to more than triple y-o-y to USD 33.5 bn in 2024, before falling back to USD 12.9 bn next year, economist Farouk Soussa wrote in a note seen by Enterprise. He also sees portfolio inflows growing over 16x from 2023 to USD 15 bn this year, before settling at USD 2 bn in 2025 and 2026.<\/p>\n

#2- Exchange rate realignment:<\/strong> Standard Chartered now sees the EGP ending the year at 45 against the greenback on the back of the sizable USD inflows, Slim said. \u201cSo far what we've seen is an overshooting of the FX to about 50 levels. We've already started to see the currency retrace a little bit,\u201d which suggests that \u201cthere are more volumes [of FX] in the markets,\u201d she added. Fitch Ratings, on the other hand, expects \u201ca broadly stable USD-EGP exchange rate for the rest of 2024,\u201d it said<\/a> on Thursday.<\/p>\n

#3- External funding surplus:<\/strong> Goldman Sachs is penciling in a cumulative funding surplus of USD 26.5 bn through to 2027 \u2014 compared to previous projections of a funding deficit of USD 13 bn \u2014 as external financing arrives to the state coffers. The funding surplus is expected to reach USD 15.7 bn in 2024 before a deficit of USD 209 mn is incurred next year, followed by a USD 3.5 bn surplus in 2026.<\/p>\n

#4- FX reserves to rise: <\/strong>Goldman Sachs sees gross FX reserves rising to c. USD 61 bn by the end of 2027, and is projecting an even greater jump in net reserves as deposits from GCC countries at the central bank are converted into equity for new projects. <\/p>\n

#5- FX liquidity in banking sector to pick up: <\/strong>The banking sector\u2019s foreign currency liquidity is expected to \u201cimprove significantly\u201d following the float and as the country unlocks fresh financing from the UAE, IMF, and other lenders over the next few months, according to Fitch. As a result, the sector\u2019s net foreign liabilities will \u201cnarrow significantly\u201d in 2024 from USD 17.6 bn in January, the agency said, stopping short of providing a future estimate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The fresh forecasts came one week after the central bank moved forward with highly-anticipated reforms<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":617109,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,905,260,492],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-617108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-standard-chartered","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"2306f6bf-b667-4fd1-8c13-b5f0bfdae4b6","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/3\/1407.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Standard Chartered, Goldman Sachs, and Fitch chime in on Egypt\u2019s economic forecasts","related_issue":[617103],"teaser":"The fresh forecasts came one week after the central bank moved forward with highly-anticipated reforms","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/3\/.0cf8d5a7-46e3-4d3f-a240-66e10707774a.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nNew forecasts from Standard Chartered, Goldman Sachs, and Fitch - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/17\/new-forecasts-from-standard-chartered-goldman-sachs-and-fitch\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New forecasts from Standard Chartered, Goldman Sachs, and Fitch\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The fresh forecasts came 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Net foreign assets at banks increased to USD 2.9 bn in October, continuing to rebound after having turned positive in September. Excluding the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/288.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":617155,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/17\/this-evening-eu-confirms-its-lining-up-a-eur-7-4-bn-aid-package-for-us\/","url_meta":{"origin":617108,"position":4},"title":"THIS EVENING: EU confirms it\u2019s lining up a EUR 7.4 bn aid package for us","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 March 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Good afternoon, folks, and happy Sunday. We hope that you\u2019ve accustomed yourselves to the caffeine deprivation and are ready for the second workweek of Ramadan. THE BIG STORY TODAY The EU is set to provide us with a EUR 7.4 bn package of loans, grants, and investments through to 2027,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/381.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575544,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/19\/egypts-economy-is-on-track-to-finish-the-year-having-grown-3-5\/","url_meta":{"origin":617108,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy is on track to finish the year having grown 3.5%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"NOSTRADAMUS AGREES: Egypt\u2019s economy will finish the year having grown 3.5%. That\u2019s our takeaway after Fitch said in a recent report that it sees the economy growing at a 3.5% clip this year, adding its projection to similar forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (which recently revised upwards its 2020\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/194.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/617108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=617108"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/617108\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/617103"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/617109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=617108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=617108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=617108"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=617108"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=617108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}