{"id":616680,"date":"2024-03-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/10\/moodys-upgrades-egypts-outlook-to-positive\/"},"modified":"2024-03-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-10T00:00:00","slug":"moodys-upgrades-egypts-outlook-to-positive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/10\/moodys-upgrades-egypts-outlook-to-positive\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody\u2019s upgrades Egypt\u2019s outlook to positive"},"content":{"rendered":"

Moody\u2019s has upgraded Egypt\u2019s outlook<\/strong> to positive from negative, affirming its Caa1 rating \u2014 seven rungs into junk territory \u2014 the credit rating agency wrote on Thursday. The agency cited the USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma investment<\/a> and recent policy measures<\/a> taken by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) which helped the country access a bigger package from the International Monetary Fund.<\/p>\n

Macroeconomic rebalancing:<\/strong> The FX inflows from the Ras El Hekma agreement are expected to cover the country\u2019s external financing gap until the fiscal year 2025-2026 \u2014 which Moody\u2019s estimates at USD 15 bn \u2014 and strengthen \u201cmacroeconomic rebalancing,\u201d the rating agency said. In addition, the central bank\u2019s decision to float the currency and hike interest rates by 600 basis points will \u201creduce the risk of a renewed build-up of external imbalances and strengthen the economy's shock resilience over time,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n

Risks of a downgrade: <\/strong>\u201cPersistently weak debt affordability that undermines confidence in the government's capacity to service its local currency debt stock would likely lead to a downgrade, as would a renewed build-up in FX shortages as a result of a larger than expected foreign exchange backlog or incomplete currency reform implementation,\u201d Moody\u2019s warned. <\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>Moody\u2019s in January<\/a> downgraded Egypt\u2019s credit outlook to negative from stable, citing concerns that the IMF support may be insufficient to ward off macroeconomic challenges and currency instability in the country.<\/p>\n

FinMin reax:<\/strong> Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said that Moody\u2019s bullish outlook will help attract more investments, and he expects other credit rating agencies to follow suit, upgrading their outlook on Egypt within the next few months, according to a statement<\/a> from the Finance Ministry.<\/p>\n

S&P also turned bullish on Egypt\u2019s future:<\/strong> S&P Global Ratings says it \u201chas been encouraged\u201d by the float of the EGP, the expanded IMF package, and the unexpected Ras El Hekma investment, S&P Global Ratings analyst Trevor Cullinan told Reuters<\/a>. \u201cThe Egyptian authorities are making really positive statements. Taken on face value they seem committed to this whole reform strategy, but as we know events can derail a government and we will wait and see.\u201d <\/p>\n

Remember:<\/strong> S&P downgraded Egypt\u2019s sovereign credit rating in October<\/a> to B- from B on the back of the FX shortage and rising uncertainties about debt sustainability.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next? <\/strong>The rating agency\u2019s Egypt review is scheduled to come out on 19 April. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Moody\u2019s expects the FX liquidity from the Ras El Hekma agreement to close the external funding gap until FY 2025-2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":616681,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,2234,272,1324,1653],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-616680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-imf","tag-moodys","tag-sp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8b7ded3a-e188-4a20-a95c-54d7ae389ddc","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/3\/734.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Moody\u2019s 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