{"id":616676,"date":"2024-03-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/10\/februarys-inflation-figures-out-today\/"},"modified":"2024-03-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-10T00:00:00","slug":"februarys-inflation-figures-out-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/10\/februarys-inflation-figures-out-today\/","title":{"rendered":"February\u2019s inflation figures out today"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends. <\/strong>Enjoy your last cup of coffee and breakfast sandwich for some time as we gear up to welcome the first day of Ramadan tomorrow \u2014 well either tomorrow or Tuesday, we\u2019ll know for certain tonight following the crescent moon sighting indicating the beginning of the holy month. <\/p>\n

So, when do we eat? <\/strong>Maghrib prayers are at 6:02 pm tomorrow in the capital, and you\u2019ll have until 4:49 am on Tuesday to hydrate and caffeinate ahead of fajr. <\/p>\n

<\/a> PSA #1- <\/strong>Ramadan hours start today:<\/strong> Shops, malls, restaurants, and cafes will be allowed<\/a> to stay open until 2 am during the month of Ramadan and the Eid Al Fitr holiday. Public sector employees will be at their desks<\/a> from 9am to 2pm and banks will now be open for customers between 9:30am and 1:30pm (9am to 2pm for staff) through Ramadan.<\/p>\n

PSA #2- The silly season of time changes has begun. <\/strong>Clocks spring forward one hour today in New York, Toronto, and much of North America. The UK follows suit on 31 March, while Egypt will advance one hour on 26 April. <\/p>\n

WATCH THIS SPACE-<\/p>\n

#1- IMF money incoming: <\/strong>The first tranche of the IMF\u2019s expanded USD 8 bn loan program<\/a> could land in state coffers before the end of the month, Central Bank of Egypt Governor Hassan Abdalla told Al Mal<\/a> on Thursday, without disclosing the value of the tranche. <\/p>\n

#2- The next Ras El Hekma?<\/strong> Egyptian authorities have been in talks with Saudi officials regarding the development rights for Sharm El Sheikh\u2019s Ras Gamila, people with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg<\/a>. The negotiations are at \u201cearly stages and could fall through\u201d, Bloomberg\u2019s sources said. The Ras Gamila plot is \u201cfar smaller\u201d than Ras El Hekma but will still bring in USD bns, Bloomberg said. <\/p>\n

Don\u2019t celebrate yet: <\/strong>Rumors regarding the development plans for the Red Sea area spread days after Egypt released the news of its USD 35 bn<\/a> Ras El Hekma agreement with the Abu Dhabi wealth fund and they were quickly shut down<\/a> by government officials.<\/p>\n

#3-<\/strong> Fresh amendments to the income tax law?<\/strong>The Finance Ministry will issue a draft of changes to the Income Tax draft law for public consultations, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said on Thursday (watch, runtime: 1:16:06<\/a>). The House last month approved amendments to the Income Tax Act<\/a> that raise the income tax exemption threshold to EGP 60k from EGP 45k.<\/p>\n

HAPPENING TODAY-<\/p>\n

<\/a> #1- It\u2019s inflation day: <\/strong>Capmas and the central bank will release inflation data for February today. Annual urban inflation dropped<\/a> to 29.8% in January \u2014 its lowest level in a year and fourth consecutive monthly drop.<\/p>\n

A fifth consecutive drop? <\/strong>A Reuters poll<\/a> of 14 analysts see annual urban inflation falling to 25.1%, driven primarily by a favorable base effect.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect it to last: We expect the Madbouly government to push ahead with a round <\/strong>of subsidy cuts<\/strong> that will include an increase in the price of fuel. <\/p>\n

The impact should be muted <\/strong>and hit food inflation more than most other categories. The float of the EGP last week should, in and of itself, be reasonably good for inflation \u2014 goods in store prior to the float had been priced at an effective exchange rate of around EGP 70 to the greenback.<\/p>\n

The smart money sees us on a disinflationary path later this year<\/strong>, a development that should provide the central bank room to start trimming interest rates in the second half of the year. <\/p>\n

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<\/a>#2- Seventh phase of export subsidy program kicks off: <\/strong>The Finance Ministry has launched the seventh phase of its export subsidy program, through which it plans to pay out some EGP 8 bn worth of overdue subsidies to exporters, according to a ministry readout<\/a>. Exporters have between today and 9 May to send in their requests. Exporters will receive their payments over two phases \u2014 27 June and 8 August. <\/p>\n

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR- <\/p>\n

<\/a> European officials coming to Cairo:<\/strong> A number of European officials including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the Greek, Belgian, and Italian prime ministers are landing in Cairo next Sunday, 17 March. During her time in Egypt, the EU Commission chief will meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, European Commission spokesperson Veerle Nuyts said<\/a> without providing any further details. <\/p>\n

On the agenda: <\/strong>We have an idea what the visit may entail \u2014 last week Prime Minister<\/a>Moustafa Madbouly said<\/a> that the expanded USD 8 bn package from the IMF will be followed by more funding from other international partners like the World Bank and EU. \u201cThe mission is taking place in the context of talks for a stronger partnership between the EU and Egypt,\u201d the statement said.<\/p>\n

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IN THE HOUSE- <\/p>\n

New Unified Budget Act up for a final vote: <\/strong>MPs are meeting today to discuss and give their final seal of approval on the amendments to the United Budget Act \u2014 they gave the amendments their preliminary approval yesterday. Under the amendments, the budgets of all 59 of the state\u2019s economic bodies and the state budget will be presented in a new consolidated budget \u2014 dubbed the Public Government Budget. <\/p>\n

A little help from an old friend:<\/strong> The amendments were drafted after consulting international institutions including the IMF, Finance Minister Mohamed Maaid said. <\/p>\n

** Maait last month unveiled the ins and outs of the <\/strong>amendments <\/strong>\u2014 read our coverage here<\/a>. <\/p>\n

WAR WATCH- <\/p>\n

<\/a> Another round of ceasefire talks will resume in Cairo today<\/strong>, Egyptian security sources told Reuters<\/a>. This round follows unsuccessful talks last week, where Hamas refused to agree to a ceasefire in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages, saying that the agreement lacks substantial measures to end the war altogether. A Hamas delegation is unlikely to travel to Cairo for the new round of negotiations, a source from the group told Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Israel <\/strong>remains engaged<\/strong> in the talks: <\/strong>CIA head William Burns and Mossad chief David Barnea on Friday discussed<\/a> a hostage release agreement. \u201cContacts and cooperation with the mediators continue all the time in an effort to narrow the gaps and reach agreements,\u201d the Israeli Prime Minister Office said in a post on X<\/a>.<\/p>\n

EU sets up aid corridor to Gaza as we approach Ramadan:<\/strong> A maritime aid corridor between Cyprus and Gaza is expected to launch today in a joint effort between the EU, US, and UAE to deliver food and medical supplies to the besieged enclave, according to a statement (pdf)<\/a>. This came a day after US President Joe Biden said the US would build a <\/strong>temporary port<\/a><\/strong> on Gaza\u2019s Mediterranean coast<\/strong> to speed aid deliveries. <\/p>\n

AND- Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry discussed <\/strong>ceasefire progress on a call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken<\/strong>, according to a statement<\/a> from the ministry on Friday. Shoukry also warned Blinken about the \u201ccatastrophic humanitarian consequences\u201d if Israel goes ahead with its planned ground incursion into Rafah. <\/p>\n

RED SEA WATCH-<\/p>\n

Houthis launch flurry of drone attacks on Red Sea vessels: <\/strong>Yemen\u2019s Houthis launched 37 drones targeting US warships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden on Saturday, the group\u2019s spokesperson Yahya Saree posted<\/a> on X yesterday. Later in the day, US Centcom announced that it had downed<\/a> 28 Houthi drones.<\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- <\/p>\n

No single story dominates headlines this morning<\/strong>, but among those you should know about:<\/p>\n