{"id":616563,"date":"2024-03-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-07T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/07\/two-exchange-rates-is-a-disease-that-throws-things-out-of-balance-says-cbes-abdalla\/"},"modified":"2024-03-07T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T00:00:00","slug":"two-exchange-rates-is-a-disease-that-throws-things-out-of-balance-says-cbes-abdalla","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/07\/two-exchange-rates-is-a-disease-that-throws-things-out-of-balance-says-cbes-abdalla\/","title":{"rendered":"Two exchange rates is a \u201cdisease that throws things out of balance,\u201d says CBE\u2019s Abdalla"},"content":{"rendered":"

Having tw<\/strong>o exchange rates is akin to a \u201c<\/strong>disease that throws things out of <\/strong>balance,\u201d<\/strong> said Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor Hassan Abdalla at a press conference yesterday evening (watch,<\/a>runtime<\/a>: 51:54<\/a>) following the bank\u2019s decisions to raise interest rates and float the EGP. The CBE also issued a statement (pdf)<\/a> after the press conference.<\/p>\n

A<\/strong> parallel market exchange rate before yesterday\u2019s moves was the result of \u201ca lack of <\/strong>confidence in the <\/strong>EGP<\/strong> or the management of cashflows,\u201d as well as a lack of confidence in what the path forward looked like, Abdalla said. <\/p>\n

While i<\/strong>nflation is now on a downward trajectory<\/strong>, Abdalla said, it is expected to exceed the CBE\u2019s targets<\/a> of 7% (\u00b1 2%) by 4Q 2024, according to the CBE statement.The CBE will announce a new target soon, and will not hesitate to use any tools in its arsenal to reach single-digit inflation in the medium term, Abdalla said at the IMF presser yesterday.<\/p>\n

Yesterday\u2019s moves are just the first steps:<\/strong> Reaching single-digit inflation rates isn\u2019t going to happen overnight, Abdalla noted, stressing that yesterday\u2019s interest rate hike and the decision to float the EGP are just the first steps. The rest of the path forward \u201cwill need work, not just from the central bank, but on the real economy,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Critically: \u201cWe\u2019re not targeting an FX price, we\u2019re targeting inflation,\u201d<\/strong>Abdalla said at the presser. Moving away from an economic policy centered on the exchange rate and towards \u201ca full-fledged inflation targeting policy\u201d is critical for a sustainable long-term view on the economy, IMF Executive Director Mahmoud Mohieldin said earlier this week<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Can the CBE intervene in the market?<\/strong> The CBE will keep its finger off the scale and allow market dynamics to determine FX rates but \u2014 like any central bank \u2014 it can intervene at any point by making liquidity available in the interbank market \u201cif we see any abnormal fluctuations in the exchange rate, and now we have the resources to do so when needed,\u201d Abdalla added.<\/p>\n

For the record: The CBE didn\u2019t intervene in the market yesterday<\/strong>, Abdalla said. \u201cThere were media reports that the central bank intervened by injecting liquidity into the interbank system, but we didn\u2019t need to intervene. I can say proudly that all the resources that came in, came from the market,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

The price of credit default swap contracts \u2014 which essentially reflect the cost of insuring <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s debt \u2014 have plummeted to 2% from 27% annually<\/strong>, signaling renewed investor confidence in Egypt. Meanwhile, the cost of insuring our debt is now at 6% \u2014 cooling down from 25% earlier, Abdalla added. As a result, the foreign debt market is now accessible should we need it. <\/p>\n

The central bank has enough FX reserves to cover its debt obligations and maintain a <\/strong>surplus<\/strong>, Abdalla also said. It seems that ministries have already got the memo, with an unnamed government source telling Al Borsa<\/a> in a report published late last night that the Oil Ministry will pay USD 1-1.5 bn in arrears to international oil companies over the coming period.<\/p>\n

Businesses can sign forward contracts<\/strong> that enable them to lock an exchange rate for a certain period of time to hedge against any potential fluctuations in exchange rates. These contracts are already available in most of the Egyptian banks, Abdalla said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Abdalla says the central bank didn\u2019t intervene in the market yesterday, signaling a hands-off approach to the exchange rate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":616564,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,838,104,1419,72,2234,2276],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-616563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-devaluation","tag-economy","tag-egp","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-hassan-abdalla","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5ebdece9-73e5-4449-a45b-28f9ed2bba6b","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/3\/648.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"","related_issue":[616552],"teaser":"Abdalla says the central bank didn\u2019t intervene in the market yesterday, signaling a hands-off approach to the exchange rate","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/3\/.c09155ae-f6a2-4c9f-87ca-9de96eca4160.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nTwo exchange rates is a \u201cdisease that throws things out of balance,\u201d says CBE\u2019s Abdalla - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/07\/two-exchange-rates-is-a-disease-that-throws-things-out-of-balance-says-cbes-abdalla\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Two exchange rates is a \u201cdisease that throws things out of balance,\u201d says CBE\u2019s Abdalla\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Abdalla says the 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