{"id":616484,"date":"2024-03-06T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-06T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/06\/mahmoud-mohieldin-shares-regional-and-global-outlook-at-efg-hermes-one-on-one-conference\/"},"modified":"2024-03-06T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-06T00:00:00","slug":"mahmoud-mohieldin-shares-regional-and-global-outlook-at-efg-hermes-one-on-one-conference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/03\/06\/mahmoud-mohieldin-shares-regional-and-global-outlook-at-efg-hermes-one-on-one-conference\/","title":{"rendered":"Mahmoud Mohieldin shares regional and global outlook at EFG Hermes\u2019 One-on-One conference"},"content":{"rendered":"

UN Special Envoy on Financing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable<\/strong> Development and IMF executive director Mahmoud Mohieldin took to the stage <\/strong>on the first day of EFG Hermes\u2019 One on One conference<\/strong> in Dubai to offer his macroeconomic outlook on the global and regional economies for the next couple of years. The conference, which welcomes some 670 investors and 250 global institutions to meet with senior execs from more than 215 companies from 29 nations, runs through to tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe center of economic gravity is shifting towards the East,\u201d<\/strong> Mohieldin, who is also the UN Special Envoy on Financing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, told attendees, pointing to countries like China, India, Vietnam, and the Philippines. It\u2019s up to emerging markets and countries in the Middle East \u2014 which are strategically located to benefit from that shift \u2014 to make the most of that transition, he added. Regional cooperation is important in the increasingly fragmented global economy that we currently live in, he said, adding that \u201cbetter trade relations and FDI in the region\u201d will allow these markets to grow without constraints. <\/p>\n

Navigating a restricted and fragmented trade environment is the uphill battle emerging<\/strong> markets will have to reckon with over the next couple of years<\/strong>, Mohieldin said. \u201cIt\u2019s a sad fact that last year, 3k trade restrictions is 3x more than what we had in 2019,\u201d he said. \u201cAll emerging markets are dependent on a globalized economy with trade flows, FDI, and knowledge sharing \u2014 that is not the case anymore,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re not on track to achieve any of the sustainable development goals (SDGs):<\/strong> Of the 17 goals, we\u2019re only on track to achieve 15%, and we\u2019re deviating either slightly or significantly on 50% of the goals, Mohieldin said.<\/p>\n

For Egypt, the long-term view is paramount:<\/strong> To achieve real sustainable growth that can help us reach milestones like celebrating the end of extreme poverty, we need to maintain growth of no less than 7% over two decades, Mohieldin said. The growth must be inclusive and based on continuous investment, which churns out more opportunities, he said. And while Egypt\u2019s immediate economic hurdles \u201cwill be dealt with shortly,\u201d the long-term view \u201cshould be about policies beyond transactions. What I hope to see is a full-fledged inflation targeting policy with monetary policy being just one tool of many,\u201d he said. \u201cThe center of economic policy being the exchange rate is wrong,\u201d and should be shifted to inflation targeting.<\/p>\n

For GCC countries, expanding the non-oil sector is paramount:<\/strong> \u201cThere have been good attempts at diversification, and the name of the game is how to diversify better,\u201d Mohieldin said. \u201cSome have the ability to do that and have diversified into services and high tech and investments at home and abroad, [and] some have great ambitious infrastructure plans, like Saudi Arabia, and are benefiting from a well educated caliber of the young population,\u201d he explained, referencing the UAE. <\/p>\n

And EMs need to keep debt in check:<\/strong> \u201cWe\u2019re not going to see a global debt crisis like the 1970s, \u201880s, and \u201890s. The kind of debt today and the limited exposure of financial institutions won't make it a global crisis,\u201d he said. \u201c[But] we\u2019ll see a development crisis; we\u2019ll see scattered fires in different places,\u201d Mohieldin added. \u201cMany countries today in Africa and South Asia are paying on their debt service more than what they pay on education and health,\u201d he noted, adding that the high cost of borrowing \u2014 along with muted FDI flows and inadequate domestic savings \u2014 are hampering investments and growth in emerging markets.<\/p>\n

\u2026which involves setting up a common resolution mechanism:<\/strong> \u201cIf you\u2019re in debt trouble and you\u2019re in an economy without significant spillovers to the rest of the world, you\u2019re on your own with very little support from the global financial system,\u201d Mohieldin said, adding that many countries in Africa and South Asia are paying more on debt service than on essential services like education and healthcare. \u201cThe world right now doesn\u2019t have a good resolution mechanism; it\u2019s too slow and doesn\u2019t work,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Things could take a turn when interest rates go down: <\/strong>Anticipated rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve will be \u201cgood news\u201d for capital flows and potential penetration in emerging markets\u2019 capital markets, Mohieldin said.<\/p>\n

But more needs to be done: <\/strong>\u201cWe need to learn from past mistakes [and] avoid excessive borrowing,\u201d he said, adding that we need more equity-based financing. We also need to develop an encouraging business environment, and ensure good coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, while also capturing the potential of the green transition and big data and AI, he added. <\/p>\n

And we must be mindful of the impacts of laws in the US and the EU on our part of the<\/strong> world<\/strong>, he added, referencing the US\u2019 Inflation Reduction Act<\/a> \u2014 which involves providing subsidies in the form of tax credits to renewable energy projects \u2014 and the EU\u2019s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which taxes imports of certain raw materials in a bid to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mohieldin sees the \u201ccenter of economic gravity\u201d shifting towards the East, though challenges for emerging markets persist<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":616485,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[7106,104,84,72,182,105],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-616484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-efg-hermes","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-mahmoud-mohieldin","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"95244d09-9732-4b55-a548-f5fdf6178a91","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/3\/243.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Mahmoud Mohieldin shares regional and global outlook at EFG Hermes\u2019 One-on-One conference","related_issue":[616477],"teaser":"Mohieldin sees the \u201ccenter of economic gravity\u201d shifting towards the East, though challenges for emerging markets persist","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/3\/.a326a6ce-c262-45cd-8a90-0778c972515e.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nMahmoud Mohieldin shares regional and global outlook at EFG Hermes\u2019 One-on-One conference - 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