{"id":616132,"date":"2024-02-29T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-29T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/29\/is-now-the-right-time-for-a-devaluation\/"},"modified":"2024-02-29T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-29T00:00:00","slug":"is-now-the-right-time-for-a-devaluation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/29\/is-now-the-right-time-for-a-devaluation\/","title":{"rendered":"Is now the right time for a devaluation?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <a id=\"wwtt1\"><\/a> <strong>Good morning, friends. The question on our community\u2019s hive mind <\/strong><strong>this morning: Is today the day <\/strong>that the Central Bank of Egypt will take long-awaited action on the exchange rate? <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>SPEAKING IN FAVOR- <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The first payment from ADQ has arrived <\/strong>as part of its USD 24 bn acquisition of the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/b0b97fcf-95b0-4d39-86ae-0a4989221520\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">development rights to<\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/b0b97fcf-95b0-4d39-86ae-0a4989221520\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Ras El Hekma<\/a> and parallel plan to invest an additional USD 11 bn in real estate and other sectors. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi made the announcement yesterday at a previously-scheduled event (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/65W7v2mPYGw?t=794\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">watch,<\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/65W7v2mPYGw?t=794\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">runtime<\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/65W7v2mPYGw?t=794\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">: 30:06<\/a>);<\/li>\n<li><strong>Officials are telegraphing that they\u2019ve made significant progress on the state asset <\/strong><strong>sale program<\/strong>, with the expectation being that we could shortly see news of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/186b8b0d-c93f-40db-960d-03e84dd9e709\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">who will buy a stake in<\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/186b8b0d-c93f-40db-960d-03e84dd9e709\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Wataniya<\/a>, the military-built filling station chain since transferred to the Sovereign Fund of Egypt;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Cabinet is putting USD 41 bn worth of investment in green hydrogen <\/strong>and renewable back on the table, announcing a flurry of MoUs yesterday after months and months of silence on a file that had generated substantial excitement in the business community in late 2022 and early 2023;<\/li>\n<li><strong>We have more clarity on BP\u2019s USD 1.5 bn investment program here<\/strong> in partnership with Adnoc. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Throw in word of a multi-bn <\/strong><strong>USD Italian<\/strong><strong> industrial complex <\/strong>and news China wants to set up an industrial zone on the Mediterranean, and the message is clear: <strong>Cabinet wants the world to know that Egypt is open for business. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The overhang: Uncertainty on the value of the EGP.<\/strong> Sovereign Fund of Egypt chief Ayman Soliman has long argued that our primary problem is one of sentiment, not the fundamentals. He\u2019s right, in many respects. The market has been looking for catalysts \u2014 and only clear movement on asset sales, on hydrogen, and (above all else) on the EGP will be sufficient to restore confidence and start reframing the narrative on the country.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>A clear move on FX policy is just what the doctor ordered <\/strong>to capitalize on a string of positive signals. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <a id=\"wwtt3\"><\/a> <strong>What the wags are saying: <\/strong>Al Arabiya Business\u2019 Fahima Zayed told viewers that \u201cthere are strong rumors \u2026 that the float of the EGP will occur within hours\u201d shortly after El Sisi finished his speech (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ZLYLceMvPxQ\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">watch, runtime: 5:53<\/a>). Zayed suggested some in the market think the central bank is looking at something like <strong>EGP 38.50 to the greenback<\/strong> should it go ahead with a devaluation today. The EGP strengthened to 46-48 after El Sisi\u2019s announcement from EGP 50 before the president spoke, she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>SPEAKING AGAINST- We have yet to sign an agreement with the IMF. <\/strong>Is the lender waiting for devaluation (or a float) before closing a staff-level agreement? Or will the central bank wait for an agreement to be in place before moving ahead? <strong>We\u2019re not yet on the IMF board\u2019s <\/strong><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/About\/executive-board\/EBC-Scheduled\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">public agenda<\/a><\/strong><strong>. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">^^ We have more on all of this in this morning\u2019s news well. <\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">WELCOMING A NEW PARTNER- <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>We\u2019re honored this morning to welcome <\/strong><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/aimsinternational.com\/en\/\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">AIMS International<\/a><\/strong><strong> as our newest commercial <\/strong><strong>partner. <\/strong>Led in Egypt by our friends Zeinab Noureldin and Pauline d\u2019Arcy, AIMS International is a trusted partner for executive search, board services, and leadership solutions. The business in Egypt traces its roots to 1997, when Pauline founded her eponymous consulting firm. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>People are the only real asset a business has. <\/strong>It doesn\u2019t matter how shiny your factory is or great the IP you own: People make the brand, the P&L, and the business \u2014 whether you\u2019re selling soap, making widgets, or providing a service.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>It\u2019s difficult to recall a time in the past couple of decades in which the regional <\/strong><strong>competition for talent has been sharper <\/strong>than it is today. All of us need to pay extra attention to the people we choose to lead, build, and govern our businesses \u2014 and to how to retain them. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Like us, AIMS International values people above anything else<\/strong>, and Zeinab, Pauline, and their team are consummate professionals who fundamentally share our values. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>AIMS International is joining us as sponsor of our My Morning Routine column<\/strong> \u2014 our most popular weekly feature in which we introduce the community to someone we think we should all know. (As always, we remain editorially independent: Our editors and reporters choose who we profile and the questions we ask.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>To kick off this new partnership, we asked Pauline and Zeinab to sit down and answer the <\/strong><strong>same questions <\/strong>we ask all our My Morning Routine subjects. And in view of the competition for talent with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, we asked a few extra questions about how we should all be thinking about recruiting and keeping top talent.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Enterprise remains available to our readers without charge thanks to the generous <\/strong><strong>support of our advertisers <\/strong>including, from this morning, the good people at AIMS International. Please join us in thanking them. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">WATCH THIS SPACE- <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <a id=\"wwtt2\"><\/a> <strong>#1- Italian firm Danieli wants to build a USD 4 bn industrial complex here:<\/strong>TheMadbouly government is looking into a proposal from Italian industrial manufacturer <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.danieli.com\/en\/\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Danieli<\/a> to establish a USD 4 bn integrated industrial complex for the production of iron and steel products that will create 17k jobs, a cabinet <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/EgyptianCabinet\/posts\/pfbid03oi5iatwJHv7CzR3sdWVHVrfZuWjoqBzeMyB2B9tQJcEWYe8nXkFuuGWHVPS6qY6l\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">statement<\/a> said. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But that\u2019s not all, folk: <\/strong>The project will also see Danieli establishing an international training center in Egypt for engineers and technicians and could also attract a further USD 2-3 bn in investments for a green hydrogen plant.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><a id=\"wwtt4\"><\/a> <strong>#2- The details of BP's plan to invest USD 1.5 bn have started to become a<\/strong><strong> little clearer: <\/strong>The global energy giant\u2019s plan to invest USD 1.5 bn \u2014 which we <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d8fb196d-ee56-411f-bf26-065a2418acd0\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">first heard about<\/a> last week \u2014 will take place over the next three to four years, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-02-28\/bp-to-invest-1-5-billion-in-egypt-as-country-s-gas-output-falls?srnd=homepage-middle-east&sref=mmeFTDW1\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a> reports. The news follows BP\u2019s announcement <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/77f939ad-a204-4c44-ba13-bea2cc22b179\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">earlier this month<\/a> that it had formed a JV with Adnoc to target the development of natural gas assets in the country, but the investment will come entirely from BP and the company will continue to hold 70% of its existing interests in Egypt outside of the JV., a BP spokesperson told the business news information service.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good morning, friends. The question on our community\u2019s hive mind this morning: Is today the day that the Central Bank of Egypt will take long-awaited action on the exchange rate? SPEAKING IN FAVOR- The first payment from ADQ has arrived as part of its USD 24 bn acquisition of the development rights toRas El Hekma [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":616133,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[838,72,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-616132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-devaluation","tag-enterpriseam","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5f60cce8-b78a-485b-815d-454d4245aaeb","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/2879.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Is now the right time for a devaluation?","related_issue":[616130],"teaser":"","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/2\/.52752d3a-7176-4623-b554-c0bbe193cb80.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is now the right time for a devaluation? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/29\/is-now-the-right-time-for-a-devaluation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is now the right time for a devaluation?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Good morning, friends. The question on our community\u2019s hive mind this morning: Is today the day that the Central Bank of Egypt will take long-awaited action on the exchange rate? 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The question on our community\u2019s hive mind this morning: Is today the day that the Central Bank of Egypt will take long-awaited action on the exchange rate? 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And worth up to USD 5 bn?!_StoryHedWeb_! Egypt to issue its maiden sovereign sukuk as soon as next week?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Final timing of the issuance dependent on market conditions","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/sukuk-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578879,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/17\/all-eyes-on-the-action-in-our-fx-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":616132,"position":1},"title":"All eyes on the action in our FX market","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The international press is focusing on the return of foreign inflows to our FX market following the latest devaluation of the EGP (get the full story in What We\u2019re Tracking Today, above.) Bloomberg is also out with a recap on the recent movements in the EGP \/ USD rate as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;EGYPT IN THE NEWS&quot;","block_context":{"text":"EGYPT IN THE NEWS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/egypt-in-the-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/277.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595769,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/06\/what-were-tracking-on-6-august-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":616132,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 6 August 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt has finally received the final USD 2 bn tranche of the IMF\u2019s USD 12 bn extended fund facility, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Youm7. The IMF\u2019s Executive Board agreed to disburse the tranche in July after a staff-level agreement was reached in May. We\u2019re still\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":587239,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/24\/egypt-has-options-to-solve-the-fx-devaluation-conundrum\/","url_meta":{"origin":616132,"position":3},"title":"Egypt has options to solve the FX-devaluation conundrum","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Today: AfDB meetings, SCZone China roadshow, and EFG Hermes AGM","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/1332.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":584295,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/29\/this-morning-theres-more-speculation-about-devaluation-ahead-of-thursdays-mpc-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":616132,"position":4},"title":"THIS MORNING: There\u2019s more speculation about devaluation ahead of Thursday\u2019s MPC meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The USD rate has continued to widen in the parallel and derivative markets in recent days","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/3\/621.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":614847,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/08\/devaluation-the-imf-package-and-ras-el-hekma-heres-what-you-need-to-know-this-morning\/","url_meta":{"origin":616132,"position":5},"title":"Devaluation, the IMF package, and Ras El Hekma: Here\u2019s what you need to know this morning","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 February 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"There\u2019s a lot of chatter, but nothing concrete on any of those fronts","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/696.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/616132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=616132"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/616132\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/616130"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/616133"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=616132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=616132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=616132"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=616132"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=616132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}