{"id":616058,"date":"2024-02-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/28\/devaluation-unlikely-to-be-inflationary-says-goldman-sachs\/"},"modified":"2024-02-28T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-28T00:00:00","slug":"devaluation-unlikely-to-be-inflationary-says-goldman-sachs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/28\/devaluation-unlikely-to-be-inflationary-says-goldman-sachs\/","title":{"rendered":"Devaluation unlikely to be inflationary, says Goldman Sachs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Goldman Sachs offers its two cents on the economy: <\/strong>Goldman Sachs wrapped its investor trip to Egypt earlier this week to meet with analysts, market participants, and policy makers with five \u201ckey takeaways\u201d on where they think the Egyptian economy is going in a note seen by Enterprise.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>#1- Devaluation ahead of IMF staff-level agreement \u201cunlikely to be inflationary\u201d: <\/strong>It was \u201cmade clear\u201d from discussion with officials that a staff-level agreement (SLA) by the IMF will follow Egypt establishing a more flexible exchange rate, Goldman Sachs\u2019 Farouk Soussa wrote. Although FX demand volatility complicates any forecasts, Soussa notes that the strengthening of the EGP in the parallel market indicated the EGP could trade between 45-50 against the greenback in the event of a devaluation. A devaluation \u201cof this magnitude is unlikely to be inflationary,\u201d Soussa added, pointing to the EGP strengthening on the parallel market and an uptick in FX liquidity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>#2- And we may hear about an IMF agreement in the \u201cnext week or two\u201d: <\/strong>Officials told the Goldman Sachs group that they\u2019re working for an increased package that they think will be announced in \u201cthe coming days.\u201d Soussa says that the government has done a lot already to strengthen fiscal sustainability, work towards a more flexible exchange rate, and promote the private sector\u2019s role in the economy in line with the IMF\u2019s action plan, but that any upcoming IMF announcement will come with \u201cmore such measures, including new, more stringent fiscal targets.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>#3- Ras El Hekma agreement was an \u201cinflection point\u201d: <\/strong>\u201cWe expect the scale and speed of the investment in Ras El Hekma to provide ample FX liquidity to meet Egypt\u2019s financing needs in the near\/medium term and allow the CBE to clear the FX backlog,\u201d Soussa noted. In addition to representing a \u201cclear inflection point for Egyptian risk assets,\u201d in terms of FX pressures, Soussa wrote that the expected easing of FX supply pressures \u201cis likely to sharply reduce speculative\/hedging demand for FX, driving the parallel rate lower.\u201d There\u2019s good news too for external credit, as the \u201cdevelopments greatly reduce investor concerns regarding the medium-term external financing outlook,\u201d and have already led to a rally in the country\u2019s external debt.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>#4- FX is set to flow back into the official banking system: <\/strong>New-found confidence that two-way liquidity is back in the official market \u201cshould see FX inflows pick up\u201d from inside and outside the country. External sources of FX are expected to ramp up from inflows into the local debt market, remittances coming back through official channels, and large real estate project investments.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>#5- But be warned, \u201cmedium-term uncertainties [are] likely to persist\u201d: <\/strong>Although the Goldman Sachs group saw \u201cno current indication of such policy slippage\u201d from the government and that they remained committed to reform, \u201cconcerns\u201d were raised that fresh inflows of FX \u2014 like from Ras El Hekma \u2014 could be used to finance additional government spending or other real estate projects. Soussa wrote that they heard concerns that the recent calming of external financing pressures could persuade the government to relax its commitment to reform, and that because of this, the IMF program \u201cwill act as an important external anchor for the reform process going forwards.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Officials told Goldman Sachs that they expect an IMF agreement to be announced \u201cin the coming days\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":616059,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[838,104,72,260,272,7388],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-616058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-devaluation","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-imf","tag-ras-el-hekma","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f4ee0841-5f6c-415c-85cd-c0795cafd93d","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/2712.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Goldman Sachs\u2019 five key takeaways on the Egyptian economy","related_issue":[616052],"teaser":"Officials told Goldman Sachs that they expect an IMF agreement to be announced \u201cin the coming days\u201d","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/2\/.bf7e2201-8a97-4531-8538-ec9805bed274.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Devaluation unlikely to be inflationary, says Goldman Sachs - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/28\/devaluation-unlikely-to-be-inflationary-says-goldman-sachs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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&quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/6\/1751.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577029,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/07\/bond-investors-shrug-at-imf-rescue-package\/","url_meta":{"origin":616058,"position":5},"title":"Bond investors shrug at IMF rescue package","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The markets aren\u2019t convinced that the IMF program is a cure for Egypt\u2019s woes: Egyptian bonds have sold off and the cost of insuring the country\u2019s debt has risen in the days since the government agreed a USD 3 bn rescue package with the IMF as investors adopt a wait-and-see\u2026","rel":"","context":"In 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