{"id":614847,"date":"2024-02-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/08\/devaluation-the-imf-package-and-ras-el-hekma-heres-what-you-need-to-know-this-morning\/"},"modified":"2024-02-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-08T00:00:00","slug":"devaluation-the-imf-package-and-ras-el-hekma-heres-what-you-need-to-know-this-morning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/08\/devaluation-the-imf-package-and-ras-el-hekma-heres-what-you-need-to-know-this-morning\/","title":{"rendered":"Devaluation, the IMF package, and Ras El Hekma: Here\u2019s what you need to know this morning"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cairo was on fire yesterday with talk of devaluation, where we stand on the IMF package, <\/strong>and a land sale and development agreement for the North Coast\u2019s Ras El Hekma. <\/strong>We have the rundown on all of it, along with thoughts on how you might want to view the news. <\/p>\n

#1- Some clarity on the Ras El Hekma saga: <\/strong>The General Authority for Investment and Freezone (GAFI) has picked an Emirati consortium to take over the USD 22 bn development of a plot of land in the North Coast\u2019s Ras El Hekma, GAFI head Hossam Heiba told CNBC Arabia<\/a> yesterday. He explained that the authority had received a number of offers from several international consortiums. Heiba\u2019s comments mark the first official confirmation of the project after a week-long tangle of rumors<\/a> and denials<\/a> from officials about the investment\u2019s size and origin. <\/p>\n

How you should think about this: <\/strong>It is a bit unusual that commentary on a project of this size is coming from GAFI and not the Prime Minister\u2019s Office. Heiba, in his remarks to CNBC Arabia, made clear that USD 22 bn is the total investment value of the project (and that the final figure could be higher), that the UAE-based consortium would be responsible for lining up and mobilizing financing before developing and managing the project. Both domestic and international companies would likely have a chance to bid for pieces of the construction work, he suggests.<\/p>\n

Critically: <\/strong>\u201cWe have finished negotiations and are now preparing to sign the contracts,\u201d Heiba said. So: Watch this space. <\/p>\n

\n

\n

#2- More whispers on our IMF package:<\/strong> The Madbouly government is closing in on a combined USD 12 bn in financing, with the IMF doubling the value of the package it had offered to USD 6 bn and other, unnamed \u201cdevelopment partners\u201d contributing a further USD 6 bn, one government source familiar with the matter told Al Shorouk<\/a>. The IMF facility would be delivered in nine tranches, the newspaper adds. While the IMF had been pushing policymakers to float the EGP before any cash is released, Cabinet is said to want at least USD 6 bn in hand before moving to a float.<\/p>\n

In context: <\/strong>We have previously reported that officials are looking for substantial funding from other countries or international organizations separate from the IMF. The issue is that we\u2019ve already hit the effective ceiling of what we can borrow from the World Bank, there is not a lot of room to ask the European Union or its members for what amounts to direct budget support, and we don\u2019t see Washington, Riyadh, or Abu Dhabi kicking in cash for the same purpose. Arab partners, in particular, are more interested in buying assets than they are in providing cash or deposits.<\/p>\n

The USD 12 bn figure has captured the imagination, though. <\/strong>Goldman Sachs also sees<\/a>Egypt<\/a> securing a USD 12 bn loan, with USD 7 bn coming from the IMF and the rest from international and regional partners. Sources we have spoken with who have knowledge of proceedings and of the government\u2019s negotiating posture say we\u2019re looking at USD 6-9 bn<\/a> from the IMF and are still hopeful that we can line up funds from other sources. <\/p>\n

Still waiting: <\/strong>An IMF staff delegation, after weeks in town, left a week ago tomorrow with no staff-level agreement (or \u201cSLA\u201d as it is called). We were told at the time that a pact could be within reach \u201cwithin 10 days,\u201d but there has been no word since. As of this morning, the IMF\u2019s executive board<\/strong> \u2014 which would sign off on an SLA \u2014 has no meeting listed on its public calendar. <\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

\n

#3- Don\u2019t scream devaluation just yet: <\/strong>Sources with knowledge of the matter were quick to deny (watch, runtime: 0:56<\/a>) rumors that the devaluation of the EGP is fast approaching. There were rumblings in the capital yesterday that an EGP 180 bn package of tax cuts and social support measures was a prelude to devaluation. (We have details on the package in this morning\u2019s news well, below.)<\/p>\n

ALSO- Deval rumors drove the gold market wild: <\/strong>Some traders stopped sales following rumors that a devaluation is imminent, which put the market in a state of \u201cconfusion,\u201d gold trading platform iSagha said on its website<\/a>. Gold prices remained unchanged yesterday, with 24 karat gold going for EGP 3,943 per gram, down almost 15% from last week\u2019s EGP 4,629. <\/p>\n

\n

\n

#4- USD at EGP 50? <\/strong>The greenback could officially change hands at EGP 50 or more by the end of the year, Bloomberg\u2019s chief emerging markets economist Ziad Daoud told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 4:43<\/a>).\u201cI don\u2019t think Egypt will float the EGP but rather move forward with a devaluation.\u201d<\/p>\n

A little more optimistic than other estimates: <\/strong>Oxford Economics sees the EGP falling<\/a> to 55-60 to the USD in banks by the end of the year if the central bank moves to a flexible exchange rate regime and S&P Global Ratings said it is expecting authorities to devalue the EGP to half its current official value to unlock the remainder of the IMF package. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a lot of chatter, but nothing concrete on any of those fronts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":614848,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,103,272],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-614847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fdi","tag-imf","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"21f48d1a-051c-4c8a-be41-0c7a7a5e819b","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/696.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Devaluation, 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