{"id":614597,"date":"2024-02-05T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-05T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/05\/goldman-sachs-morgan-stanleys-two-cents-on-our-imf-agreement\/"},"modified":"2024-02-05T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-05T00:00:00","slug":"goldman-sachs-morgan-stanleys-two-cents-on-our-imf-agreement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/05\/goldman-sachs-morgan-stanleys-two-cents-on-our-imf-agreement\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley\u2019s two cents on our IMF agreement"},"content":{"rendered":"

More predictions on our IMF package roll in: <\/strong>Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both had things to say about our IMF package, hinting that we\u2019re moving closer to an agreement. <\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs sees a USD 12 bn loan in our future: <\/strong>Goldman Sachs sees the IMF increasing the size of our assistance program to USD 7 bn, the bank said in a note. The bank also sees the Egyptian government receiving some USD 5 bn from international and regional partners, bringing our total funding to USD 12 bn. <\/p>\n

Most expectations are within this range: <\/strong>While there hasn\u2019t been much of a consensus on the size of the package, Enterprise sources with knowledge have put it in the USD 6-9 bn ballpark<\/a>. Egypt has recently wrapped up<\/a> talks with an IMF delegation in Cairo where they made progress on the details of the agreement.<\/p>\n

The IMF and Egyptian officials have reached a preliminary agreement <\/strong>on the new loan, which would include the long-stalled first and second reviews of our initial USD 3 bn agreement, according to Goldman Sachs, but the staff-level agreement may take a few weeks. <\/p>\n

Why the additional funds? <\/strong>Egypt faces a USD 8 bn financing gap and needs some USD 17 bn to stabilize the exchange rate, the bank said. This brings the country\u2019s total financing needs for the next four years to USD 25 bn. <\/p>\n

But it won\u2019t be enough: <\/strong>\u201cWe believe it is highly unlikely that the additional funding that will be made available to Egypt under the new program will cover [Egypt\u2019s financing needs],\u201d the bank said. The bank points to the state privatization program and other financing strategies to help fill what will remain of the financing gap. <\/p>\n

The Morgan Stanley take: <\/strong>The bank believes that the CBE\u2019s decision to hike interest rates<\/a> by 200 basis points last Thursday paves the way for policymakers to devalue the EGP and seal the IMF agreement as the country moves to an \u201cinflation-targeting framework\u201d in line with the fund\u2019s requirement, the bank said in a report. The bank expects the CBE to enact a limited devaluation at first, before gradually scaling it up to a more flexible rate.<\/p>\n

The markets are in desperate need of some clarity: <\/strong>Just days after dipping to record lows in the parallel and derivative markets \u2014 changing hands at 70 to the USD \u2014 the EGP slightly strengthened with the USD currently changing hands for anywhere between EGP 48-56, according to local media. This discrepancy between prices is likely the result of the CBE\u2019s rate hike and anticipation of when Egypt and the IMF may wrap up their agreement sending markets into panic. <\/p>\n

AND- I<\/strong>nvestors <\/strong>ditch EGX stocks in anticipation of devaluation: <\/strong>Egyptian stocks lost around EGP 40 bn of their market value on Sunday, falling to EGP 1.97 tn, as investors anticipated the movement of the EGP \/ USD exchange rate and parallel market prices, Naeem Brokerage\u2019s Allen Sandeep told Asharq Business<\/a>. The EGP currently stands at anywhere between 62-66 to the USD on the parallel market, traders told Asharq. <\/p>\n

Temporary dips: <\/strong>Egyptian stocks are moving in tandem with the black market exchange rate, Thndr Securities\u2019 Amr Elalfy said. \u201cEgyptian stocks are far from their true valuations,\u201d Elalfy said, adding that he expects stock prices to rise following the devaluation announcement and \u201cprovision of USD liquidity into the market.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Goldman Sachs sees a USD 12 bn loan in our future<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":614598,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,260,272,508],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-614597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-imf","tag-morgan-stanley","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"dfd58c81-09b0-434f-96b1-66aeeec4a8c7","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/260.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley weigh in on Egypt\u2019s IMF agreement","related_issue":[614592],"teaser":"Goldman Sachs sees a USD 12 bn loan in our future","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/2\/.f68f717c-4058-4e05-963f-fd1fe4f00dd3.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nGoldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley\u2019s two cents on our IMF agreement - 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The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) at the end of last week went ahead with a series of measures to restore liquidity to the FX market and revive investor confidence in the economy \u2014 and topped it off by announcing a USD 3 bn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/369.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":608424,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/19\/goldman-sachs-and-morgan-stanley-take-a-beating-after-3q-earnings-release\/","url_meta":{"origin":614597,"position":2},"title":"Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley take a beating after 3Q earnings release","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 October 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Morgan Stanley shares fell as much as 7.9% after releasing its 3Q earnings","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/10\/972.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":588821,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/18\/cbe-needs-usd-5-bn-for-orderly-currency-float-goldman\/","url_meta":{"origin":614597,"position":3},"title":"CBE needs USD 5 bn for orderly currency float -Goldman","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is unlikely to obtain the amount of FX needed for an orderly deval, says the investment bank","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/825.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":549729,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/28\/an-imf-agreement-could-be-sealed-before-the-end-of-the-month-according-to-goldman\/","url_meta":{"origin":614597,"position":4},"title":"An IMF agreement could be sealed before the end of the month, according to Goldman","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 September 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF program by the end of this month? EGP to 24? A mood of \u201ccautious optimism\u201d? These are some of the suggestions in a new report from Goldman Sachs, which recently sent a team to Egypt to talk to figures from the private- and public-sectors \u2014 including the Finance Ministry,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/402.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593903,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/14\/what-were-tracking-on-14-october-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":614597,"position":5},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 14 October 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank start today and wrap up on Sunday, with the talk of the town these days being the global economic outlook for 2019. The IMF will weigh in on the question everybody\u2019s been asking for months: Is the world economy sliding into\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/614597","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=614597"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/614597\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/614592"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/614598"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=614597"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=614597"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=614597"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=614597"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=614597"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}