{"id":614514,"date":"2024-02-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/04\/cbe-hikes-rates-for-first-time-since-august\/"},"modified":"2024-02-04T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-04T00:00:00","slug":"cbe-hikes-rates-for-first-time-since-august","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/04\/cbe-hikes-rates-for-first-time-since-august\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE hikes rates for first time since August"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) hiked interest rates by 200 basis points<\/strong> at its first Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the year on Thursday, it said in a statement (pdf)<\/a>. The first rate hike since August<\/a> aims to reinforce the downward trajectory of inflation as pressures mount amid geopolitical uncertainty, disruption of shipping in the Red Sea, and supply chain setbacks \u201craised uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook.\u201d<\/p>\n

Where rates now stand:<\/strong> The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised rates by 200 bps, leaving the overnight deposit rate to 21.25%, the overnight lending rate to 22.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates to 21.75%.<\/p>\n

Only a few saw this coming: <\/strong>Only two of the nine analysts we spoke to for our customary interest rate poll<\/a> anticipated the hike. Ahmed Hafez, head of Research at Beltone Holding, predicted a 150-200 bps hike as ongoing discussions with the IMF have signaled a shift in priorities toward inflation targeting, suggesting a probable monetary tightening in the coming months. Meanwhile, Economist Mona Bedeir deemed monetary tightening \u201can urgent necessity at the current stage.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another step towards a larger <\/strong>IMF<\/strong> package: <\/strong>\u201cGiven the ongoing talks and discussions with the IMF and that we\u2019re so close to reaching a staff-level agreement, I\u2019m sure that part of [the conditions] include further monetary tightening,\u201d Hafez told Enterprise. \u201cI don\u2019t think this 200 bps hike is the end of it.<\/strong> Our initial expectation was of a 300 bps hike during the first half of 2024 \u2026 Another 100-200 bps hike should be enough to anchor inflation expectations,\u201d Hafez said.<\/p>\n

Further hikes down the road? <\/strong>The anticipated currency devaluation will likely be paired with interest rate hikes, analysts suggest. Two of those we spoke to for our poll expected the CBE to move forward with a devaluation paired with a rate hike, without specifying when it could happen \u2014 Zilla Capital\u2019s Head of Research Aya Zoheir saw the CBE raising rates by 300-500 bps in tandem with a devaluation, while IBIS Consulting Economist Ali Metwally penciled in a 300 bps rate hike paired with a devaluation that will see the EGP trading at 40-55 against the greenback. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank\u2019s Monica Malek separately told Reuters<\/a> that the hike likely comes ahead of a widely anticipated devaluation of the EGP and the announcement of a larger IMF package. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s all about timing<\/strong>, suggests Goldman Sachs\u2019 Farouk Soussa. \u201cThe authorities\u2019 preferred strategy is to bring the parallel rate under control before unifying the exchange rate,\u201d he told Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cThis means bringing demand for USD down through tighter policies and increasing supply through external borrowing. When the parallel rate is at a more reasonable level, the unification of the currency becomes easier through a devaluation.\u201d The rate hike could be seen as a first step in that process, the business information service suggests.<\/p>\n

S<\/strong>peaking of: <\/strong>Societe Generale sees the government devaluing to 40-45 against the greenback, up from the current official rate of EGP 30.9, Asharq Business<\/a> reported, citing a research note from the bank.<\/p>\n

The rate hikes got ink in the foreign press: <\/strong>Reuters<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a>. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The CBE expects inflationary pressures to persist due to geopolitical uncertainty, maritime trade disruptions, and fiscal consolidation measures<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":614515,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349,724],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-614514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"fe7e3e78-d6e6-4ad9-b0ea-3f206b156039","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/116.JPG","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Central Bank of Egypt hikes rates to keep inflation in check","related_issue":[614509],"teaser":"The CBE expects inflationary pressures to persist due to geopolitical uncertainty, maritime trade disruptions, and fiscal consolidation measures","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/2\/.45b68b61-ce4c-4ba8-9668-fd70980c18af.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nCBE hikes rates for first time since August - 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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the deposit rate at 11.25%, the lending rate at 12.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/364.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589289,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":614514,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBE is adopting a wait-and-see approach while previous rate hikes take effect","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1218.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592417,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/06\/cbe-makes-surprise-100-bps-rate-hike\/","url_meta":{"origin":614514,"position":4},"title":"CBE makes surprise 100-bps rate hike","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Analysts had expected the central bank to keep rates on hold","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/206.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578144,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/18\/cbe-to-raise-interest-rates-this-week-poll-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":614514,"position":5},"title":"CBE to raise interest rates this week - poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 December 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to raise interest rates when it meets on Thursday thanks to rising inflation, according to our interest rate poll. 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