{"id":614413,"date":"2024-02-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/01\/war-on-gaza-will-cut-into-foreign-exchange-inflows-spike-govt-expenditure-imf\/"},"modified":"2024-02-01T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-01T00:00:00","slug":"war-on-gaza-will-cut-into-foreign-exchange-inflows-spike-govt-expenditure-imf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/01\/war-on-gaza-will-cut-into-foreign-exchange-inflows-spike-govt-expenditure-imf\/","title":{"rendered":"War on Gaza will cut into foreign exchange inflows, spike gov\u2019t expenditure - IMF"},"content":{"rendered":"

The International Monetary Fund is out with its latest <\/strong>Regional Economic Outlook (pdf)<\/a><\/strong> for the Middle East and North Africa, giving us a regional deep dive into its headline growth projections it released a day earlier<\/a> in its World Economic Outlook (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

ICYMI- <\/strong>The Fund on Tuesday once again cut our growth outlook to 3.0% for the fiscal year 2023-2024, down 0.6 percentage points from its last projection in October. The picture for the region as a whole wasn't much better either, with its growth projection for the year cut 0.5 percentage points to 2.9%.<\/p>\n

\n

WHAT\u2019S BEHIND THE CUT + WHERE DOES EGYPT STAND<\/strong>-<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s war on Gaza is \u201cexacerbating an already challenging environment for<\/strong> neighboring countries and beyond,\u201d<\/strong> warns the IMF. The report also cautions that if the conflict spreads outside the enclave and disruption in the Red Sea escalates, the region could face a \u201csevere economic impact, including on trade and tourism\u201d \u2014 and you don\u2019t need to be a world-renowned regional economic expert to know which country this applies to most.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, tourism in Egypt has proved to be resilient: <\/strong>The Fund highlights that our tourism industry has fared much better than in Lebanon and Jordan, but high-frequency tourism data nonetheless \u201cshow signs of a possible deterioration.\u201d<\/p>\n

But we\u2019re not through the storm yet: <\/strong>\u201cWith an escalation of the conflict, a more severe or persistent negative impact on tourism could materialize\u201d in the region, the report adds. <\/p>\n

A dark cloud is hanging over our Suez Canal revenue expectations: <\/strong>The halting of numerous shipping lines through the Suez Canal has not gone unnoticed by the IMF, with the Fund warning of the knock-on effect this could have on foreign exchange flows. The Suez Canal provided \u201c2.2% of GDP in annual balance of payment receipts and 1.2% of GDP in fiscal revenue,\u201d the report added<\/p>\n

Investors could get spooked: <\/strong>\u201cHeightened uncertainty is expected to weigh on investor sentiment and net foreign direct investment inflows,\u201d the Fund wrote. <\/p>\n

A dip Suez Canal revenues and FDI will only add to our existing FX shortages: <\/strong>Reductions of foreign exchange flows from the the Suez Canal and FDI will add to the \u201csustained adverse impact of foreign exchange shortages on private sector activity\u201d and \u201care projected to negatively impact the external sector and economic growth,\u201d the statement added.<\/p>\n

Inflation nation: <\/strong>As in most other countries in the region, says the Fund, inflation is easing here at home. However, the IMF singles out our FX shortages as one of the reasons why inflation has proven more persistent than hoped regardless of promising inflation data<\/a> in recent months.<\/p>\n

This is all in addition to rising expenditures here at home:<\/strong> \u201cOn the fiscal side, expenditures could rise amid needs to support vulnerable households and displaced communities and to bolster security, particularly for economies in close proximity to the conflict,\u201d the Fund writes. On top of this, the Fund also adds that the public and private sectors will have to contend with \u201chigher energy and borrowing costs from an unexpected tightening of regional financing conditions,\u201d which is forecasted to further hold back growth.<\/p>\n

If this is the best case scenario, we\u2019re not sure we want to hear the worst case scenario:<\/strong>The IMF\u2019s outlook for the region and headline growth figures are based upon the assumption that the war on Gaza and wider disruptions stemming from it start to ease in the first quarter of 2024. However, with Israeli military officials predicting<\/a> the conflict continuing throughout the year, Israeli ministers calling for<\/a> ethnic cleansing and settlements in Gaza, and ceasefire negotiations hitting roadblocks<\/a>, the conflict shows few signs of ending soon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Israel\u2019s war on Gaza is \u201cexacerbating an already challenging environment for neighboring countries and beyond,\u201d warns the IMF<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":614414,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,2234,272,6984,273],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-614413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-imf","tag-middle-east-politics","tag-world-economic-outlook","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"4c65f7c7-f0fb-4825-8dfc-9b54a7306389","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/1\/2790.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"War on Gaza will cut into Egypt\u2019s foreign exchange inflows, spike gov\u2019t expenditure - 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In its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday, the Fund cut its 2022 forecast by 0.4 percentage points and now sees the global growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/281.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546116,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/support-talks-with-imf-reach-technical-stage-as-lender-pinpoints-key-reforms-the-fund-expects-uneven-recovery-in-the-middle-east\/","url_meta":{"origin":614413,"position":1},"title":"Support talks with IMF reach technical stage as lender pinpoints key reforms + The Fund expects uneven recovery in the Middle East","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Talks between Egypt and the IMF on a fresh support package have reached the \u201ctechnical stage,\u201d Jihad Azour, the multilateral lender\u2019s head of Middle East and Central Asia, told reporters at a press briefing on the release of the IMF\u2019s latest regional outlook yesterday, Ahram Online reports. Azour did not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/388.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556338,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/20\/uneven-post-covid-recovery-threatens-mena-regions-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":614413,"position":2},"title":"Uneven post-covid recovery threatens MENA regions \u2013IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The post-covid recovery in Egypt and MENA continues to be \u201cuneven and incomplete\u201d despite progress made in the region since the start of the year and a slightly more optimistic growth outlook, the IMF said in an update to its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550050,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":614413,"position":3},"title":"Price pressures likely to trigger recession next year -IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF expects more than a third of the global economy to contract \u201cthis year or next,\u201d it warns in its October World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday. The Fund maintained its global GDP forecast of 3.2% for this year but is less optimistic about next year, when it expects\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/196.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":590804,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/26\/imf-sees-lower-growth-sharply-higher-inflation-in-egypt-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":614413,"position":4},"title":"IMF sees lower growth, sharply higher inflation in Egypt next year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fund expects growth to slow to 3.7% this year","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1027.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575410,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/14\/imf-warns-of-long-protracted-recovery-as-it-eases-global-recession-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":614413,"position":5},"title":"IMF warns of long, protracted recovery as it eases global recession forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF warns of long, slow recovery as it eases global recession forecast: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now sees the world\u2019s GDP contracting at a 4.4% pace \u2014 an improvement from the 4.9% it projected in its June outlook \u2014 after economies coming out of lockdown showed improved trade, retail\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/143.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/614413","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=614413"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/614413\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/614407"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/614414"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=614413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=614413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=614413"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=614413"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=614413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}