{"id":614412,"date":"2024-02-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/01\/goldman-pictet-thinks-egypts-usd-bonds-are-underrated\/"},"modified":"2024-02-01T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-01T00:00:00","slug":"goldman-pictet-thinks-egypts-usd-bonds-are-underrated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/01\/goldman-pictet-thinks-egypts-usd-bonds-are-underrated\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman, Pictet thinks Egypt\u2019s USD bonds are underrated"},"content":{"rendered":"

The yield spread between Egyptian USD bonds and US treasuries currently stands at 990 bps<\/span><\/p>\n

Goldman, Pictet are upbeat about Egypt\u2019s USD bonds: <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s USD-denominated bonds are being touted byGoldman Sachs and Pictet Asset Management as they brush away concerns about defaulting and low credit rating, Bloomberg<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n

No defaults expected:<\/strong> Goldman Sachs\u2019 Head of Global Foreign Exchange Kamakshya Trivedi said that a default is less likely to happen in Egypt compared to what the market has priced; likewise, Pictet doesn\u2019t expect to see any developing nation default this year, according to the firm\u2019s CIO for fixed income Mary-Therese Barton.<\/p>\n

Macroeconomic conditions are shifting in favor of lower-rated countries<\/strong>, especially with the Federal Reserve expected to start cutting interest rates this year, Trivedi said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s already beginning to play out,\u201d<\/strong> as hard-currency bonds in emerging markets have boasted \u201cpositive momentum,\u201d Trivedi said. This sentiment was also echoed by Barton, who said that multilateral-backed developing markets like Egypt can drive \u201chigh single-digit\u201d returns for investors.<\/p>\n

Teetering on the edge of distress? No Problem. <\/strong>The yield spread between Egyptian USD bonds and US treasuries stood at 990 bps on Wednesday \u2014 just shy of the 1k bps level that marks distress, according to data from JP Morgan Chase cited by Bloomberg. Nonetheless, Trivedi said \u201cthere is probably quite a lot of upside in the distressed sovereign category,\u201d with Egypt being a lead example. <\/p>\n

Remember:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s USD bonds were well into the distressed territory before the war on Gaza, with yield spreads between Egyptian USD bonds and USD treasuries reaching 1,165 basis points<\/a> by the end of September. Escalation of the conflict in Gaza has caused<\/a> bond markets to price in a lower likelihood of default on expectations that our international backers will ride to the rescue, which helped the spread with US treasuries narrow. <\/p>\n

ICYMI-<\/strong> Citibank this week downgraded<\/a> its recommendation for Egypt\u2019s USD bonds issued in October to \u201cmarketweight\u201d \u2014 a rating given to fixed-income securities to indicate that their yields align with market expectations \u2014 after giving the bonds an \u201coverweight\u201d recommendation last year.<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s credit rating has been taking hit after hit:<\/strong> Moody\u2019s downgraded<\/a> Egypt\u2019s credit outlook to negative from stable last month, affirming its Caa1 rating \u2014 seven rungs into junk territory, citing concerns that IMF support would be insufficient in warding off macroeconomic challenges and currency instability in the country. Moody\u2019s<\/a>, alongside Fitch Ratings<\/a> and S&P Global<\/a> downgraded our sovereign credit rating twice last year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The yield spread between Egyptian USD bonds and US treasuries currently stands at 990 bps Goldman, Pictet are upbeat about Egypt\u2019s USD bonds: Egypt\u2019s USD-denominated bonds are being touted byGoldman Sachs and Pictet Asset Management as they brush away concerns about defaulting and low credit rating, Bloomberg reports. No defaults expected: Goldman Sachs\u2019 Head of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[82,7106,104,72,260,7361],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-614412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","tag-bonds","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-pictet-asset-management","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"fabfd81a-6404-40ed-843d-97543b344ccb","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Goldman Sachs and Pictet Asset Management see Egypt\u2019s USD bonds gaining momentum, playdown defaulting fears","related_issue":[614407],"teaser":"","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/2\/.d9c78eef-3af3-45fc-8858-8f66df580cfa.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nGoldman, Pictet thinks Egypt\u2019s USD bonds are underrated - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/01\/goldman-pictet-thinks-egypts-usd-bonds-are-underrated\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Goldman, Pictet thinks Egypt\u2019s USD bonds are underrated\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The yield spread between Egyptian USD bonds and US treasuries currently stands at 990 bps Goldman, Pictet are upbeat about Egypt\u2019s USD bonds: Egypt\u2019s USD-denominated bonds are being touted byGoldman Sachs and Pictet Asset Management as they brush away concerns about defaulting and low credit rating, Bloomberg reports. 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The weekend is finally here, but we\u2019ll keep our phones close, as we are still waiting for the outcome of the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s monetary policy meeting later this evening.THE BIG STORY TODAY No, we are not getting USD 22 bn for Ras\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":671379,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/09\/07\/gold-to-reach-usd-5k-if-fed-independence-weakens-goldman-sachs\/","url_meta":{"origin":614412,"position":1},"title":"Gold to reach USD 5k if Fed independence weakens -Goldman Sachs","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 September 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold prices would also see an increase if 1% of the privately owned 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