{"id":614338,"date":"2024-01-31T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-31T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/31\/imf-cuts-our-growth-outlook-again\/"},"modified":"2024-01-31T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-31T00:00:00","slug":"imf-cuts-our-growth-outlook-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/31\/imf-cuts-our-growth-outlook-again\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF cuts our growth outlook \u2014 again"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>IMF slashes our growth outlook: <\/strong>The IMF has downgraded its fiscal year 2023-2024 growth forecast for Egypt to 3.0% from October\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/18f5a345-3af0-4908-af1b-d9a8a46852a1\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">projection of 3.6%<\/a> in its updated <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/1\/2619.pdf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">World Economic Outlook (pdf)<\/a>. This continues a downward trend that has seen the IMF successively cutting Egypt\u2019s FY 2023-24 outlook to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/db88caa3-3c4b-4a6a-b81c-f91cd46d3e2c\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">4.1% from 5.0%<\/a> in July and then again to 3.6% from 4.1% a few months later. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>This is in line with government expectations<\/strong>, whichsees the economy growing an estimated <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/0d582677-df84-4c57-8702-2e53adf7b4e9\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">3.0%<\/a> in FY 2023-2024 according to latest forecasts. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But less optimistic than other international monitors: <\/strong>The <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/cbee3c58-b57c-4307-b4ea-3a5b987a7545\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">World Bank<\/a> and <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/3c9d2065-c5ad-456f-adb1-867053c60a70\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">S&P<\/a> both put our GDP growth at a more optimistic 3.5% for the current fiscal year. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Growth slowed more in FY 2022-2023: <\/strong>The Fund revised downwards its growth estimate for the last fiscal year to 3.8% from 4.2% previously. The economy grew at a 6.7% clip the year before. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The economy is expected to slightly rebound next fiscal year: <\/strong>The Fund now sees Egypt\u2019s economy growing at a 4.7% clip in the FY 2024-2025, slightly below previous projections of 5.0%. <\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK- <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>IMF trims MENA outlook: <\/strong>The IMF lowered its MENA growth outlook for the year by 0.5 percentage points, now expecting regional growth to pick up to 2.9% in 2024 from 2.0% the year before. The Fund pointed to temporary oil cuts in Saudi Arabia as the main driver behind the slashed outlook.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>It\u2019s not looking good for Saudi Arabia: <\/strong>The Fund now sees the Kingdom\u2019s economy to grow at a 2.7% clip for 2024, down 1.3 percentage points from October\u2019s projections. The country\u2019s GDP shrunk 1.1% last year in \u201cone of its steepest contractions of the past two decades,\u201d according to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-01-30\/imf-says-saudi-slump-matched-argentina-among-worst-g-20-laggards\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK-<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>On a global level, there\u2019s slightly more optimism: <\/strong>The Fund revised upwards its 2024 global growth outlook by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, thanks to the strength of the US economy and certain emerging markets, alongside fiscal support in China. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What about next year? <\/strong>The IMF left its 2025 global growth forecast unchanged at 3.2%, well below the global growth average between 2000 and 2019 of 3.8%. The Fund sees high interest rates and fiscal support withdrawal weighing on economic growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Soft landing in sight?<\/strong> Global headline inflation is thought to fall to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, as \u201cthe global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing,\u201d IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Blogs\/Articles\/2024\/01\/30\/global-economy-approaches-soft-landing-but-risks-remain\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">blogpost<\/a>. \u201cOn the downside, new commodity price spikes from geopolitical shocks \u2013\u2013 including continued attacks in the Red Sea \u2013\u2013 and supply disruptions or more persistent underlying inflation could prolong tight monetary conditions,\u201d he cautioned. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Fund also revised downwards its growth estimate for the last fiscal year to 3.8%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":614339,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,272,182,724,128,219],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-614338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","tag-opec","tag-saudi-arabia","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"21492e0c-4252-4e18-8696-f420040fffcd","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/1\/2661.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF now sees Egypt\u2019s economy growing at a 3.0% clip in the FY 2023-24","related_issue":[614331],"teaser":"The Fund also revised downwards its growth estimate for the last fiscal year to 3.8%","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/1\/.af0186fe-7164-4a72-9a8f-11be75b54a31.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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In its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday, the Fund cut its 2022 forecast by 0.4 percentage points and now sees the global growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/281.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550050,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":614338,"position":1},"title":"Price pressures likely to trigger recession next year -IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF expects more than a third of the global economy to contract \u201cthis year or next,\u201d it warns in its October World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday. The Fund maintained its global GDP forecast of 3.2% for this year but is less optimistic about next year, when it expects\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/196.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593994,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/16\/imf-downgrades-expectations-for-2019-global-growth-amid-synchronized-slowdown\/","url_meta":{"origin":614338,"position":2},"title":"IMF downgrades expectations for 2019 global growth amid \u201csynchronized slowdown\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF downgrades 2019 global growth outlook to 3%: The global economy is in a \u201csynchronized slowdown,\u201d IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said in the fund\u2019s latest World Economic Outlook (pdf), which has again downgraded its 2019 growth projections to 3.0% from 3.3% in its April report. Growth is expected to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/153.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":658906,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/19\/imf-world-bank-cut-egypts-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":614338,"position":3},"title":"IMF, World Bank cut Egypt's growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 January 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF now sees the economy growing at a 3.6% clip during the current fiscal year","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/1\/1175.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591002,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/30\/morgan-stanley-cuts-egypt-growth-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":614338,"position":4},"title":"Morgan Stanley cuts Egypt growth outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Analysts expect authorities to devalue the currency again in September or October","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1172.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":590804,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/26\/imf-sees-lower-growth-sharply-higher-inflation-in-egypt-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":614338,"position":5},"title":"IMF sees lower growth, sharply higher inflation in Egypt next year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fund expects growth to slow to 3.7% this year","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1027.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/614338","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=614338"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/614338\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/614331"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/614339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=614338"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=614338"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=614338"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=614338"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=614338"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}